For those of us who remember Tony Blair as a former British prime minister working as a UN-backed envoy in Jerusalem, there is a sense of deja vu about reports he could lead a postwar Gaza.
Mr Blair, the statesman, has been energetic and engaged as an ex-prime minister with a global reach through his think tank, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
Stepping to the forefront of the crisis facing Gaza, however, is a different order of prominence, and his team has been assiduously preparing for months. The reported backing of the White House is key to the prospect of his return.
Those with knowledge of the plan caution that the envisaged Blair role will be more like chairman of a board than direct administrator. But there are discussions that would lead to him working from a base in Egypt’s Sinai, close to but not in Gaza itself.
The main preoccupation of Mr Blair's advisers is how to ensure that this service is temporary. Their keenness for involvement is strong and committed. At the same time, given the many stakeholders involved and the potential for the situation to shift back into fighting in an instant, there is a fear around Mr Blair that if the role were open-ended, it could become a quagmire.
On their own terms, Mr Blair’s allies recognise there are still many questions to answer on how it would work to have a septuagenarian European running the most sensitive part of the Middle East.
Part of the Blair team's pitch was a poll of Gazans this year that showed the preferred choice of respondents was the restoration of a Palestinian Authority remit in Gaza. What came second was the type of organised body Mr Blair is working on. That said, the figures showed there was at least some sort of purchase for his idea in the area.
The infamous AI video of US President Donald Trump and the so-called Gaza Riviera cannot be disassociated from the plans, no matter how hard the Blair team tries. In working with Jared Kushner, Mr Trump's son-in-law, Mr Blair has found a powerful ally.
During the first Trump presidency, Mr Kushner was a trailblazing envoy himself who left a legacy of new thinking, most particularly his role in the Abraham Accords.
The current Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, may be older and have a different relationship with Mr Trump but he is cut from the same cloth as Mr Kushner.
The framework of the US-backed blueprint for the day after the ceasefire international role in Gaza is well developed at this stage.
It must come into the light because there are other principles-based international efforts under way. Even the British version of the Blair plan is a framework of bullet points that seeks to create conditions around international involvement. There is also the Franco-Saudi Arabian peace plan to accommodate, not least because of the funding role and security functions that rely on the involvement of the Arab states.
There is an acknowledgement on all sides that Mr Blair has vast experience that could be brought to bear for the benefit of Gaza.
There are also many drawbacks still to overcome. The international community is deeply divided at the moment and allotting a role to a former UK prime minister is no given.
The historical fact of the British mandate over the Holy Land also makes for uncomfortable parallels at a time when the Palestinians have suffered a fresh catastrophe.
The financing of the recovery and responsibility for keeping order in Gaza will largely rely on the region itself. Having Mr Blair direct how that is delivered will be a leap of faith for the countries involved.
The shoals of Israeli politics are not yet clear but one thing is for certain as an election year looms. The Israeli hardliners are determined to entrench what they see as gains from two years of fighting in the wake of the killings of October 7, 2023. They have an agenda and they are determined to remain in power to carry it out.
It is as much a moral function as it is a mammoth undertaking. The leaked version of Mr Blair’s plan contained a poison pill for Israeli leaders. The organisational chart for the proposed Gaza International Transitional Authority contained a Property Rights Preservation Unit. Proponents say this is designed as a guarantee to the Palestinians and distances the plan from talk of “voluntary exits” from Gaza as promoted by the advocates of the Gaza Riviera plan.
The embedded representation of the Palestinians is mooted in the executive structures of the framework documents. Still, the question of association remains for Mr Blair, the former leader of the colonial power who led the 2003 Iraq War.
It is one thing to try to move forward the prospect of a postwar Gaza, starting with recovery and reconstruction. Even the most technocratic members of the Blair team occasionally look up to see the dangers that lie ahead. The man himself will be assured in his own mind that where there is willpower, there is a way for his way to succeed.
