As Iran picks itself up following last month’s war with Israel, the country’s leadership is trying to find a diplomatic way out of the current predicament over its nuclear programme.
It has resumed engaging with other parties to the 2015 nuclear agreement (outside of the US). These include the three European powers – France, Germany and the UK – as well as China and Russia. The Europeans have threatened to use the so-called “snapback” mechanism in the 2015 deal to re-impose UN sanctions on Iran. As it seeks to avoid such an outcome before the deadline expires next month, Tehran must also recalibrate its relations with Moscow – especially as their military co-operation in the Ukraine war has led to criticism in Europe.
Ali Larijani, a former Iranian parliamentary speaker and currently an adviser to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, surprised many by travelling on Sunday to Moscow, where he met Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to the Kremlin, the unannounced talks were focused on “the escalated situation in the Middle East and around the Iranian nuclear programme”. Much speculation now abounds on the probable message Mr Larijani took to Mr Putin and how this might affect Iran’s posture vis-a-vis Russia.
The choice of Mr Larijani for such a sensitive trip is noteworthy since he doesn’t hold an official position in government, although Iran’s foreign ministry said he was in Moscow on behalf of President Masoud Pezeshkian – and that the ministry helped organise the trip.
As an appointee of Mr Khamenei and a stalwart in the establishment, Mr Larijani carries enough diplomatic and political heft to have warranted a meeting with the Russian leadership. He has been in similar situations before, having visited China as the sitting speaker in 2019, in the company of then-foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. Even after leaving office, he continued to help steer Tehran’s relations with Beijing.
However, his Moscow trip signals something more than a diplomatic process. It appears to mark a political comeback for Mr Larijani, who is playing an increasingly prominent role in Iranian politics these days. With his country in flux, and as the question of “after Mr Khamenei, who?” becomes ever more pertinent, the former speaker could be harbouring lofty ambitions.
Although the Islamic Republic was founded by an anti-monarchical revolution, it has a political aristocracy of its own – and this includes the Larijani family.
Son of a prominent cleric, Mr Larijani has held several influential positions in government. Before he became speaker in 2008, he was a national security adviser and before that the head of the state broadcaster. He and his four brothers – all accomplished in their own ways – are part of a powerful conservative family with marital ties to other key families within the political class. Mr Larijani’s father-in-law is the late Morteza Motahhari, a well-known cleric and a key figure in the 1979 revolution.
Despite having powerful links, the Larijani family was on the sidelines for many years.
Mr Larijani always had impeccable conservative credentials. He was the bete noire of the reformist movement during his tenure at the state broadcaster, primarily over the state TV’s constant negative coverage of then-president Mohammad Khatami, who was a reformist. Yet not long after, the Larijanis found themselves in choppy political waters. Mr Khatami’s successor, the hardline Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, came down heavily on the family, accusing its members of corruption, thereby making a significant dent in their image.
Mr Larijani thereafter allied himself to the centrist president Hassan Rouhani, attracting even greater ire from hardliners and getting disqualified from running for the presidency on two occasions. His brother Sadeq, a former head of the judiciary, lost re-election to the influential Assembly of Experts last year.
But as the pendulum of power once again swings inside the Islamic Republic, hardliners find themselves on the back foot as Mr Larijani and his brothers gradually return to the limelight.
When Israeli missiles were raining down on Lebanon last November, Mr Larijani visited Beirut to meet then-prime minister Najib Mikati and Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri. The trip received plenty of attention and since then his profile has continued to grow. He frequently posts on social media, and he gets more air time on TV. In May, he made a well-publicised visit to the Tehran Book Fair. When foreign dignitaries visit Iran, they often make it a point to meet him.
During last month’s 12-day war, Mr Larijani decried Israel’s attacks while urging forbearance on the part of the Iranian government. In doing so, he projected an image of someone with a steady hand and plenty of experience, wisdom and foresight – qualities that are in short supply within the establishment right now.
The former speaker hasn’t hidden his political ambitions. As mentioned earlier, he sought to run for president twice. Having backed several centrist candidates in last year’s parliamentary election, he has positioned himself as a pragmatist. His resume includes not only many years in government but also extensive military experience, having served in key positions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He is statesman-like and has a sense of humour, which would make him personable to many voters.
The question then is whether he will receive the green light to run for high office one day. Recent developments suggest this might already be in the works.
