We don’t yet have the full details of what was discussed between US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oman on Saturday. Nonetheless, it is necessary to dive into the mindset of the leaders in Washington and Tehran over questions regarding the future of Tehran’s nuclear weapons programme and its support for armed proxies in the Middle East.
The outlines of the negotiations indicate that Iran’s establishment is floundering as it attempts to buy time, save face and find ways to escape while moving forward. It is aware of US President Donald Trump’s seriousness, both in his warnings and in his readiness to deliver a painful military strike to its nuclear facilities, which represent one of the foundational pillars of its doctrine.
With its other pillar – represented by a network of armed militias – having been amputated by Israel in recent months, it understands that both pillars are now unstable and crumbling. Yet it hopes that its continued aggressive rhetoric against Israel might deter the Trump administration from acting decisively.
Iran’s leaders have been trying to promote, for domestic and regional consumption, this notion that the Trump administration is prepared to abandon its insistence that Tehran change its regional behaviour in exchange for concessions on its nuclear programme. But if they believe this to be true, they haven’t understood Mr Trump’s convictions on the issue.
The American leader who dismantled the arrangements put in place by former president Barack Obama with Tehran – arrangements that deliberately excluded Iran’s regional behaviour and its support for militias and proxies from the nuclear agreement – was not Mr Trump. It was Joe Biden. Let’s recall that it was the Biden administration that enabled Israel to carry out its crushing operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and against Hamas in Gaza.
Ahead of the meeting, the Trump team had emphasised a strict timeline by categorically rejecting any open-ended timeframe
Mr Trump has reaped the benefits of what Mr Biden implemented, which also unwittingly led to the fall of the Iran-aligned Assad government in Syria. But the Trump administration is building on these breakthroughs by attempting to block Tehran from exploiting Iraq’s resources to evade sanctions and contain the Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in that country. It is also carrying out military operations in Yemen aimed at degrading the Tehran-backed Houthi rebels.
So for anyone to claim or suggest that Mr Trump is prepared to adopt Mr Obama’s approach by agreeing to overlook Iran’s regional behaviour is to misunderstand how he and his team think.
In other words, the point of no return for Iran’s establishment has arrived. If it understands the value of what Washington is offering – lifting US-led sanctions, normalising US-Iran relations and ending Tehran’s international isolation – then it must abandon the doctrine of militias.
The time has come for these proxies to submit to the sovereignty of the states in which they operate, rather than continuing the model of creating a state-within-a-state loyal to Iran that undermines national sovereignty. This means Tehran must force the likes of Hezbollah and the Houthis to hand over their weapons to their respective states.
Yet recent reports suggest this may not be the case. At least not yet.
There have been contradictory leaks, some saying that Tehran is ready to abandon the Houthis and withdraw from Yemen, and others claiming it is doubling down on its support and positioning there. Likewise, Hezbollah has reportedly expressed its willingness to relinquish its weapons, yet there are reports that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is still present on the ground in Lebanon, with dozens of its operatives planning alongside Hezbollah to reuse the Port of Beirut for arms manufacturing. Meanwhile, what is being telegraphed in Iraq doesn’t suggest that Tehran is in any way ready to allow the PMF to hand over its weapons to Baghdad.
All of this reflects either cunning and manoeuvring on the Iranian leadership’s part or confusion within its ranks. If it is the former, then the thinking in Tehran could be that engaging in nuclear talks will draw the Trump administration into a negotiation over what the latter views to be its top priority: the nuclear issue. This could buy Tehran the time it needs to avoid American or Israeli military strikes, to regroup its proxies, and to evade the consequences of having to relinquish both pillars of its doctrine.
In any case, the talks in Oman involving Mr Witkoff and Mr Araghchi, in the presence of Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi, ended with an agreement to continue discussions in the coming week.
Ahead of the meeting, the Trump team had emphasised a strict timeline by categorically rejecting any open-ended timeframe and instead insisting on a one- or two-month period for Tehran to accept Washington’s set of demands.
These demands include Iran opening its nuclear facilities to the International Atomic Energy Agency and accepting broader inspections in pursuit of dismantling its nuclear weapons programme. Iran has made it clear that it has rejected this demand, although it has opened the door for discussing the idea of a temporary, phased agreement on the nuclear issue.
Another demand is that Iran ceases shipping weapons, missiles and ammunition to its proxies in the region, as well as halting its use of proxies to destabilise the region. Washington also insists that talks not be limited to the nuclear file but also include Tehran’s ballistic missile programme. Finally, the package includes a demand that Tehran commits to Israel’s security.
Iran will use the coming week to process and review these demands as well as its options. “I think we are very close to a basis for negotiations and if we can conclude this basis next week, we’ll have gone a long way and will be able to start real discussions based on that,” Mr Araghchi said after the meeting.
In the end, Iran’s leadership must know that it can’t keep the door of dialogue open indefinitely, for the era of “strategic patience” has run its course. Ultimately, and sooner rather than later, it needs to decide whether to modify its doctrine in order to ensure regime survival – or cling to it, even if this might spell regime destruction.
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
RESULTS
1.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,400m
Winner: Dirilis Ertugrul, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Ismail Mohammed (trainer)
2.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,400m
Winner: Kidd Malibu, Sandro Paiva, Musabah Al Muhairi
2.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,000m
Winner: Raakezz, Tadhg O’Shea, Nicholas Bachalard
3.15pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,200m
Winner: Au Couer, Sean Kirrane, Satish Seemar
3.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m
Winner: Rayig, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
4.15pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,600m
Winner: Chiefdom, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
4.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,800m
Winner: King’s Shadow, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Why your domicile status is important
Your UK residence status is assessed using the statutory residence test. While your residence status – ie where you live - is assessed every year, your domicile status is assessed over your lifetime.
Your domicile of origin generally comes from your parents and if your parents were not married, then it is decided by your father. Your domicile is generally the country your father considered his permanent home when you were born.
UK residents who have their permanent home ("domicile") outside the UK may not have to pay UK tax on foreign income. For example, they do not pay tax on foreign income or gains if they are less than £2,000 in the tax year and do not transfer that gain to a UK bank account.
A UK-domiciled person, however, is liable for UK tax on their worldwide income and gains when they are resident in the UK.
Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history
- 4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon
- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.
- 50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater
- 1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.
- 1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.
- 1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.
-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
