The UK might be in the mood for a reset on Brexit

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk shake hands in Warsaw last week. It would help if Starmer recognised that the British people, and some British politicians, really do want a 're-set' with Europe. ReutersShow less

US President Donald Trump’s re-election last November sent shock waves through America’s potential enemies, critics and competitors but it also unnerved some US allies and friends.

No one – perhaps not even Mr Trump himself – knows how far his aggressive rhetoric on trade, foreign relations, China, Ukraine, Nato and other matters will become realistic policies. But in the UK, there are already concerns about Mr Trump’s “best pal” Elon Musk and his apparent obsession with what he claims is the terrible state of the UK.

Some of this is almost comical. Other parts are plain inexplicable. Mr Musk suggested that “civil war is inevitable” in the UK. Britain had a civil war in the 17th century. The British people did not enjoy the experience. The country is keen not to repeat it. Beyond Mr Musk’s eccentricities, the serious point is that the beginning of the second Trump presidency has proved a wake-up call for the UK in 2025.

The BBC reports that a small group of senior government ministers, an “inner Cabinet”, is planning how to handle the predictable unpredictability of Trump Mark Two. This could have positive results if it leads to welcome re-evaluations not just of government policies but also of the UK’s stature in the world.

The British public has itself already re-evaluated what it now sees as the significant policy error known as Brexit. Last April, The Economist noted that while it was rare for voters to change their minds soon after referendums, “Brexit seems to be an exception”.

By December, that sense of changing minds led the National Centre for Social Research to report that polling now suggests “voters, including those who backed leaving the EU, are not particularly happy with how Brexit has turned out. Around six in 10 feel it has ‘gone badly’ and over a half of the public think that in hindsight Britain was wrong to vote to leave the EU. Among the public, just over half [51 per cent] think there should be a new referendum within the next five years”.

Uncertainties about Mr Trump combined with further uncertainties about relations with the EU appear to have led a majority of British people to view Brexit as a failed act of political self-harm that could – and should – in time be reversed. Fresh thinking extends to opposition parties, too.

The new leader of the Conservative party, Kemi Badenoch, now says it was wrong for her party to have announced that the UK was leaving the EU without a plan for growth. It’s a start, but more accurately the Conservatives had no real plan for Brexit at all. That’s why it’s such a mess. The former Conservative prime minister David Cameron complacently assumed that Brexit would never happen and that his country would stay in the EU. Ms Badenoch is beginning to accept that serious mistakes were indeed made, tiptoeing to where most voters already are.

Britain's main opposition Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch speaking during the weekly session of Prime Minister's Questions in the House of Commons, in London, on January 15. House of Commons / AFP

The leader of the Liberal Democrats, Ed Davey, is marching more strongly in the same direction. Buoyed by the presence of 72 legislators in Parliament, Mr Davey is now calling for Britain to end the Brexit failure by re-joining the EU customs union by 2030 as part of a larger deal with Europe. This, he hopes, will boost British business, aid growth and end some of the costly post-Brexit bureaucratic blockages for UK-EU trade. Ultimately, it would kill Brexit dead.

The public mood has changed. Ms Badenoch has shifted (a little) in recognising Brexit mistake. The Liberal Democrats Ed Davey reflects the new public mood by advocating rejoining the customs union

These shifts in British politics from the 2016 Brexit “have our cake and eat it” fantasy to the 2025 Brexit reality would have occurred even if Mr Trump’s second term never happened. But the Trump effect is an accelerator.

His inauguration reminds the British public that the UK-US “special relationship” is much less special nowadays, especially with a transactional president hungry to demand the new best deal from his allies. UK diplomats have in the past sometimes witnessed significant disagreements between their prime ministers and US presidents. These are usually downplayed or kept private while publicly both sides strive hard to present a united front.

In July 2019, the UK ambassador in Washington, Kim Darroch, was forced to quit when his scathing assessment of the first Trump presidency was made public. Whether anything very special remains about the “special relationship” in Trump Mark Two, remains to be seen. But what would help would be for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to cease talking vaguely about “resets” in his policies towards the EU and instead recognise that the British people, and some British politicians, really do want a “reset” with Europe.

The public mood has changed. Ms Badenoch has shifted (a little) in recognising Brexit mistake. Mr Davey reflects the new public mood by advocating rejoining the customs union. Both party leaders’ remarks resemble the witty analysis of the 19th-century French politician Alexandre Ledru-Rollin, who quipped “there go the people. I must follow them – for I am their leader”. But Mr Starmer is Prime Minister, and maybe he needs to lead more clearly, too, by following the people.

A stronger UK in Europe would also be a stronger UK in engaging with its great friends in the US.