There are no two ways about it, much of the Arab world is a mess. Outside of the Gulf, it is weak, divided, directionless, locked in conflicts, and not in control of its own destiny.
This is not new. It has been this way for a century, with non-Arab powers preying on the region in pursuit of their own aspirations. This has been playing out in four major periods that define the Arab world’s plight during the last century.
While the players dominating Arab history have changed over time, the constant is that many of the Arab people have been the victims of manipulation by others.
One century ago, the Arab world was caught between the colonial designs and greed of the British and French. At stake was control of oil, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Suez Canal. These colonial powers carved up the region creating states out of whole cloth with imposed forms of governance, planting the seeds of conflict that have born bitter fruit since that time.
Palestinians were dispossessed and dispersed to make way for a western client-state in Israel. The French ushered in a sectarian state in Lebanon with their favoured sects in control, while Syria and Iraq had imposed monarchies that ultimately gave way to ideological military coups that masked sectarianism.
During the Cold War, the Arab world became one of many platforms worldwide for competition between the US and the Soviet Union. While the Soviets were the patron of the region’s “revolution movements” and “anti-imperialist” military regimes, the US cultivated Israel, allies among the monarchies seeking stability, and sectarian groups seeking to preserve their positions of influence.
At the Cold War’s end, and especially after 9/11, the US seriously overplayed its hand with its invasion and occupation of Iraq, ideology-driven advocacy of democratisation and total embrace and empowerment of Israeli ambitions.
The result was two-fold: the diminished role of the US, which lost treasure, troops and prestige while on this fool’s errand to create a client-state in Iraq (not to forget the deaths of about 200,000 Iraqi civilians); and the emboldening of non-Arab regional powers that saw an opportunity to expand their influence over this region.
And so here we are today, as the war rages on in Gaza and the fall of Bashar Al Assad’s government in Syria. While Russia and the US still have their hands in the pot, it is clear that the region’s newly emergent influencers are now, to different degrees, the non-Arab states of Israel, Iran and Turkey.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sounds megalomaniacal in describing his country’s dominant regional role, while ignoring the reality that Israel is only in its position because of huge supplies of US weapons, back-up military assets and political support. He claims to be fighting and winning on several fronts, saving the West from the scourge of extremism.
He is operating without restraint, genocidally transforming much of Gaza into a no-man’s land, with permanent bases as signs of permanent conquest. Israeli forces are doing much the same in Syria and, despite an internationally accepted ceasefire, with Lebanon, Israel has already made clear that it will violate the terms of the agreement by retaining a presence in the south of Lebanon.
Iran, undoubtedly weakened by its losses, especially in Lebanon and Syria, may be down, but it is not out. It retains the support of significant groups in Lebanon and some in Syria, not to mention its deep penetration into Iraq and Yemen.
The Iranian government may have lost its lynchpin, Syria, leading to a weakening of its axis of resistance. But Turkey and its support for the region’s various movements has emerged as the new factor in that country’s and the Arab world’s political equation.
The impact of this development on empowering or emboldening ideological Islamist affiliates in neighbouring countries is not yet clear. Nor does anyone know how religious or ethnic minority communities will be affected in the process.
At the same time, the fate of the Palestinian people remains both unresolved and impossible to ignore.
Israel’s projection of regional power remains challenged by its continuing war, registered by leading authorities as a genocide, in Gaza and intensified oppression of Palestinian people in Jerusalem and the rest of the West Bank. This situation not only fuels greater Palestinian resistance, but also contributes to Israel’s isolation among the Arab populations and much of the rest of the world.
While on the topic, it is also worth mentioning the Kurdish people, who have for decades been cut off from one another after being separated into four portions and incorporated into Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey.
Today’s major flashpoint is between the Kurdish region of Syria, backed by Washington, facing resistance from Ankara, which sees its independence as destabilising to the Kurdish community inside Turkey. It is a flare-up waiting to happen.
Some continue to blame the Arab republics for the overall sorry state of affairs, finding fault with their sectarianism or absence of leadership. This, however, is akin to blaming the victims.
The divisions that exist are the result of external manipulation. And in the past, when movements emerged to create broad unity based on a non-sectarian identity, external forces moved to crush or exploit them.
It is high time for the Arab people to take control of their destiny. The Arab world must no longer be a playground for non-Arabs to compete for their own ends.
One place to start would be for key Arab powers to convene a summit and lay out a vision for the future coupled with the following demands: a hands-off policy for non-Arab states, with the threat that future relations will depend on adherence to this goal; and a vision of non-sectarian Arab unity within each of the states.
There should also be demands calling for an end to Israeli occupation, expansionism and aggression against several Arab states; full self-determination for the Palestinian people (and an end of some countries’ denial of the rights of the Kurdish people); and the creation of working groups to study the steps necessary to make these goals possible.
Some may dismiss this as a pipe dream. It will not happen overnight because much accrued damage must be undone. But if a new vision is not developed, backed up by steps to translate it into reality, the region will continue to hobble along crippled by division and external manipulation.
