The jury's still out on what Biden's legacy will be

President Joe Biden meets president-elect Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House, on November 13, in Washington. AP

On the brink of the New Year, world leaders, diplomats and the rest of us ordinary citizens are contemplating what 2025 might bring, often with considerable apprehension.

One area of agreement is that we are in a divided world. At the heart of it are uncertainties about the Trump presidency. We know what Donald Trump has said, but whether the US president-elect's words and comments translate into what he will actually do is a subject of constant debate, even among Trump supporters.

They say we should take him seriously, but not literally, yet that idea is unhelpful and almost meaningless. Will Mr Trump’s threats on tariffs disrupt trade? Yes, if put into practice. Will tariffs “work” – and if so, for whom? Can he end the Ukraine war as he has said, within 24 hours? My guess is no. And what of Gaza, Syria, Sudan, China and other areas of contention?

US President Joe Biden embraces Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as they visit the Wall of Remembrance to pay tribute to fallen Ukrainian soldiers, in Kyiv, February 20, 2023. Reuters

What we do know is that the new US administration involves big personalities with their own agendas, which may or may not dovetail with the priorities of Mr Trump. How (if at all) will Elon Musk work with Vivek Ramaswamy and the president-elect reinvent the US government?

There are already endless memes on social media showing Mr Musk as president in the driving seat. Many of these memes are on Mr Musk’s own platform Twitter (now X.) A commentator on American affairs suggested to me that if some leaders have an iron will, Mr Trump may have an iron whim, and the Trump-Musk bromance might not last. Ask Mr Trump’s former vice president Mike Pence how their relationship is now and you might have a sense of how suddenly things can change.

Elon Musk, left, and Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania. AP

Perhaps predicting the unpredictable where Mr Trump is concerned is pointless, and but we can at least reflect on the legacy Mr Trump now inherits from Joe Biden.

Some Democrats say openly that Mr Biden should have quit much earlier as a one term president, to allow a real contest for the heart of the Democratic party. But that is merely one of the many controversies about Mr Biden’s leadership.

His decision to pull US forces abruptly out of Afghanistan caused difficulties with allies, including the UK. It led to the Taliban sweeping back to power in Kabul. What, then, was the point of the two decades of sacrifices after 9/11? Nevertheless, Mr Biden still has his fans. In a recent article for The Hill magazine, political commentator Donna Brazile argued strongly in favour of Biden’s legacy as – in her word – a “great” president.

She pointed out that a 2023 survey of 154 US political scientists put Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt and George Washington as the top three greatest presidents, but Mr Biden ranked highly, at number 14.

Mr Trump came last at number 45 in the rankings. Mr Biden has been a “historically transformative president,” as Ms Brazile put it. “His landmark domestic accomplishments are comparable to Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal and Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society.” Well, possibly. But I doubt many of Mr Biden’s closest advisers would make such a claim. And given the significance of Mr Trump’s clear re-election win, it may be that those 154 political scientists, representing the political chattering classes within American academia are – as Mr Musk and Donald Trump repeatedly argue – simply out of touch with the lives of most Americans.

Even back in 2023 it seemed odd to number Mr Biden as one of the greatest presidents although his legacy is significant. As Ms Brazile points out, President Biden won congressional approval for an astonishing $4.6 trillion in investments to end the coronavirus pandemic. There were free vaccinations and treatments. There was job creation, put at 16 million new jobs leading to lower unemployment, and lower taxes on middle class and working-class Americans while the rich paid more.

But even progressives argue that Mr Biden failed on several levels. He stubbornly stayed too long in the fight for a second term until finally confronted by his age and infirmity. That meant he quit too late to enable Kamala Harris or any other Democrat to build support.

In 2020, Biden said he would abolish the death penalty. He didn’t. Then at the end he pardoned his son Hunter. Paternal love is understandable, but the pardon is obviously controversial.

Above all Mr Biden left millions of Americans so unhappy with the state of their Union that they preferred Mr Trump, despite his felony convictions, to return to the White House rather than the champion of the Democratic party.

The Biden legacy therefore will be re-examined and revalued in the months and years to come. But it is not unreasonable to think that if those 154 brains of US political science from 2023 were given another chance to think about great presidents, the astonishing resurrection of Mr Trump’s political career would take him off bottom place. And a rethink might also conclude that Mr Biden at number 14 in the presidential greatness stakes is flattering, but also simply wrong.