Leaders around the world are preparing for the possibility of US Vice President Kamala Harris winning this year’s presidential election against Donald Trump.
Only a month ago, Mr Trump seemed to be in a strong position to defeat his then opponent, President Joe Biden, in November. But a poor debate performance forced Mr Biden to step aside for Ms Harris, who has since risen in the polls to give the Democratic Party a fighting chance.
This shift has left the Republican Party and its presidential nominee blindsided, frustrated and perhaps even resentful as Democrats managed to reinvent themselves. And while Mr Trump’s chance of winning remains high, world leaders are also preparing for a possible Harris inauguration in January.
But governments around the world have little insight into Ms Harris’s thinking, given her low profile as Mr Biden’s Vice President and a lack of involvement in foreign affairs.
Last week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where Ms Harris officially accepted the nomination to be the party’s presidential candidate, did provide some clues on where she might stand on the most pressing international issues of the day. She said, for example, that she will continue Mr Biden’s policies on Israel and Ukraine in their respective theatres of war.
Her remarks will have been registered in Moscow.
For a while, there has been talk that the Russian government would prefer Mr Trump because of his stated intention, and plans, to end the Ukraine war immediately. The Republican appears less committed than Mr Biden to expanding Nato membership as well as strengthening American support for Ukraine. That said, Ms Harris doesn’t appear to be as focused on Russia as either Mr Biden or Mr Trump is because her priorities are more domestic.
At the same time, decision-makers in Moscow and elsewhere will be wary of Mr Trump’s unpredictable nature – at times aggressive and at other times conciliatory – because his decisions can be impulsive and often unilateral.
Conversely, Ms Harris might be seen as someone who will try to avoid making mistakes, at least compared to more seasoned politicians like Mr Biden and Mr Trump.
Her image is that of a cheerful leader who brings hope and carries the banner of “moving forward” and “not going back”. Although she may seem untested, her personal history reveals a shrewd operator, capable of quickly adapting to what her ambition demands. Additionally, she is likely to be a diligent student of the issues and will surround herself with an experienced team.
One challenge for Ms Harris would be to avoid following in the steps of Barack Obama, particularly on Middle East strategy. The former president pursued policies that were at odds with parts of the Arab world, including giving in to Iran’s demands on maintaining its regional hegemony during talks to limit Tehran’s nuclear weapons programme.
Things changed during the Biden presidency, as he was forced to repair relations with key Arab powers to counter the rising influence of both China and Russia in the region. But the challenge for Ms Harris will be to handle Iran in scenarios of both peace and war.
If negotiations to secure an immediate ceasefire in Gaza collapse and a regional war breaks out between Iran and Israel, Washington has stated that the US would be forced to ally with the latter. If war is avoided, what will the nature of US-Iran relations be – given the compromises made under the Obama and Biden administrations – in exchange for helping America avoid being dragged into a wider conflict?
We don’t yet know if Ms Harris will automatically continue the Obama-Biden policy of appeasing Tehran, especially if it means tolerating its proxies’ activities across the region. Will she take a harder line than her Democratic predecessors did?
There is every reason to believe that Mr Trump will raise this question to Ms Harris, especially with the former president having adopted a policy of bankrupting Iran through sanctions and rejecting any notion of allowing Tehran a free hand with its nuclear programme.
Iran, for its part, appears to be preparing for either electoral outcome. While its preference is likely to be a Harris win, President Masoud Pezeshkian has spoken about the importance of engaging Mr Trump by appealing to his interest in making deals and doing business.
Key Arab leaders, meanwhile, have maintained relations with Mr Trump’s team, particularly his son-in-law Jared Kushner, who played an important role in securing the Abraham Accords. But they have also welcomed the restoration of relations with Democrats.
The outcome of the Gaza negotiations is almost certain to affect the election.
If a deal to end the war materialises, Ms Harris will seek to share some of the credit. But the problem is that the Biden-Harris administration struggles with its strategy, adopting an incremental but essentially patchwork approach to addressing the conflict. This so-called pragmatic approach may not save Ms Harris if a deal falls through between now and election day. On-the-ground developments in neighbouring Lebanon could influence the outcome, too.
Also to keep in mind would be the political fates of the Gaza war’s chief prosecutors: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
Both men are likely to seek guarantees that they will not be targeted if and when an agreement is reached. But as long as they continue with their demands, any solutions reached will remain temporary, partial and patchwork, while the people of Gaza continue to suffer, and Hezbollah sacrifices the fate of millions of Lebanese in support of Hamas.
In her acceptance speech last week, Ms Harris came down hard on Hamas while pledging to protect Israel and the latter’s right to defend itself. She has promised to work towards the release of hostages held by the group and a ceasefire in Gaza. She also supported the Palestinians’ right to self-determination and to live with dignity, which drew applause from the convention attendees.
At the same time, organisers prevented pro-Palestinian speeches from being delivered from the Democratic Party’s platform. Which wasn’t surprising, because this is politics – and politics is always played in the heat of a tight election campaign.
With just a few weeks left before this campaign ends, the rest of the world has an idea of what to expect from a Trump presidency. But it’s just as true that the rest of the world – including Mr Trump himself – knows very little about Ms Harris will do if she ends up becoming the first female president in American history.
