This week, all eyes in America are on Donald Trump’s performance at the Republican National Convention, just as much as they were last week on incumbent President Joe Biden at the Nato summit in Washington.
An attempt on Mr Trump’s life over the weekend has re-energised his campaign and may take it in a new direction. It happened just after the Democratic Party faced a swell of new calls to reconsider Mr Biden’s own candidacy in light of more questions over his mental acuity.
The two men’s performances at this stage of the race will have consequences beyond domestic politics, affecting US relations with Russia, China, Nato countries and the Middle East – from the conflict in Ukraine and the bloody war in Gaza to the new Cold War between the East and West.
But first let’s pause at the Nato summit in Washington. The event itself may not have been of much interest to American voters, but everyone was watching the news conference that immediately followed in order to gauge Mr Biden’s performance in front of reporters. It was muddled, sparking fresh concerns about his advanced age.
But there was plenty of substance, too. Mr Biden sees the evolution of Nato into a strong, confident alliance as a success story for his presidency and a historic milestone for himself. Last week, while people were preoccupied with his gaffes and the possibility of his stepping down, Nato was making significant decisions, expanding its strategic presence worldwide and mobilising huge support for Ukraine, including providing F-16 aircraft. Germany agreed to host missiles on its soil. And the alliance signalled that it could allow Ukraine to use western weapons to strike deep into Russia, not just at the borders. It also clarified its stance toward Russia and China, calling Russia the primary adversary and China the secondary threat.
The summit provided significant political and strategic ammunition for Mr Biden’s campaign regarding his foreign policy credentials, as he tries to present the Democratic Party’s vision for America’s future and role in the world.
Mr Biden’s team is working tirelessly to correct some of his previous mistakes and has become more assertive in insisting that the war in Gaza must stop, even if temporarily. CIA Director William Burns and top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk are insisting on achieving a breakthrough in the Gaza negotiations by next week. This success would be crucial for Mr Biden at this moment.
It is worth noting that the victory of a more moderate candidate in Iran’s recent presidential election probably reflects a preference in the regime for the Democratic Party to remain in the White House. Mr Biden’s team has conveyed to the Iranians that the way to achieve this is by facilitating a ceasefire in Gaza, where Iran has influence over Hamas.
Mr Trump, meanwhile, remains largely removed from foreign policy issues during the election season, besides articulating his loyalty to Israel (a position shared by both the Republicans and Democrats). His primary interests are domestic, from immigration to the economy, to the deep divisions within American society.
In typical fashion, he has reacted to the unfolding Democratic drama surrounding Mr Biden’s advanced age by mocking the President. This is a disrespectful strategy – a direct shot at Mr Biden’s dignity. We all have loved ones who suffer the effects of old age or other issues that affect mental acuity. If Mr Trump doesn’t lay off, this strategy could backfire with voters sooner or later.
Mr Trump’s sense of superiority is no secret. He is inherently insular, arrogant and vainglorious. He does not believe in consultations with a team or agencies because he is impulsive by nature. None of this negates his sharp intelligence and extraordinary capabilities that brought him to the presidency in the first place and could indeed return him there.
But at the Republican National Convention, the world will be fixated on learning the impact of the lone gunman’s attempt to assassinate him. Has it tempered him or agitated him further?
His secret is not only understanding the art of deal-making but also being visionary at times, successfully negotiating understandings, swimming against the current and clarifying the consequences of hostilities without fear or hesitation.
One reason Mr Trump avoids making commitments and fixed promises is that he hates anything that binds his hands and restricts his freedom to make decisions whenever he wants. Advisers in the Republican Party and his close circle are counselling him to seize the opportunities in this week’s party convention presented by the turmoil within the Democratic Party and by the attempt on his life.
In other words, Mr Trump has an opportunity this week to rebrand from a figure shouting slogans to a calm, visionary leader. It would benefit him to present clear programmes that the American voter can understand and influence undecided voters who are sceptical about him and his populist rhetoric.
No matter what happens within the Democratic Party, whether Mr Biden insists on staying in the race or bows out, this is an opportunity for Mr Trump to emerge from the Republican National Convention with a different personality, turning away from mockery to a programme that convinces Americans of his soundness.
