Prof Allan Lichtman, who rose to fame when he predicted the 2016 election of Donald Trump using his "13 keys" system but later suffered embarrassment when he chose Kamala Harris to win in 2024, is back with a prediction for the midterm elections.
Prof Lichtman, of American University, developed his 13 keys system in 1981 with his collaborator, mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok, analysing trends in presidential campaigns since 1860.
He gained prominence in the decades after after he successfully predicted the outcome of every US presidential election – with the one exception – since 1984.
Lichtman predicts big election wins for Democratic Party
Although he did not use his 13 keys system for the midterms, Prof Lichtman discussed the newest polls, issue surveys, intangible areas and approval ratings for Mr Trump, and made a prediction for Tuesday's election in a YouTube video released on Thursday night.
Currently, Republicans control both the House of Representatives and the Senate. If the Democrats regain control of both chambers, Mr Trump's power will significantly weaken.
"We are predicting there's a better than 90 per cent chance that the Democrats take control of the House of Representatives," Prof Lichtman said.
As for the Senate, although the path to victory for Democrats is not as easy, he is more confident in the final days before the election that the party will reclaim control.
"I am upping my prediction. I originally had it at 67 per cent likelihood Democrats would retake the Senate. I am now going to say 70 per cent chance," he said.
Prof Lichtman also weighed in on the governor races taking place on Tuesday, and said the Democrats would probably "take the lead or break even" in those elections.
Sam Lichtman, Prof Lichtman's son who is co-host of the YouTube show, asked his father about concerns among those watching that the polls might be wrong.
"I'm not just basing it on polling, I've looked at lots of other factors as well," Prof Lichtman responded.
He said that in recent midterm elections, Democrats have exceeded expectations in voter turnout, and by all indications in early voting and surveys about voter enthusiasm, the Democrats have an edge.
For the closely watched Senate race in Michigan between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, Prof Lichtman said that despite the Islamophobia directed at Mr El-Sayed, he believes the former public health official will become the first Muslim to be elected to the US Senate.
"You'd think this country is beyond religious bigotry, but Trump has dragged us down to lowest possible level," he said.
"I'm Jewish and it's the kind of thing that has been levelled at Jews literally for centuries, just because of your religion you're a pariah, dangerous … it's the worst trend in humanity and Trump has brought us back to that."
Michigan, Prof Lichtman said, was a swing state that tends to lean towards the Democrats.
"[Former president Joe] Biden won it big in 2020 by 150,000 votes," he added.
2024 election disaster
Prof Lichtman rose to fame before the 2016 US presidential election, when he became one of the only political scientists to project that Mr Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton.
At first he was laughed at, but after election night found himself and his prediction system to be in the spotlight.
Shortly after winning the White House in 2016, Mr Trump sent Prof Lichtman a note that read: “Professor, congrats, good call.”
Prof Lichtman then correctly predicted that Mr Biden would defeat Mr Trump in 2020, but in the lead-up to the 2024 election, when a poor debate performance and age concerns led Mr Biden to not seek re-election, the system was put to the test.
He insisted that even with the unconventional circumstances in which then-vice president Kamala Harris was thrust into the the election to run against Mr Trump, his 13 keys system was still relevant.
In September 2024, Prof Lichtman announced that Ms Harris would be the next US president.
On election night, however, as the vote counts came in, Prof Lichtman was live on a YouTube stream when it became clear that his prediction would be incorrect for the first time since 1981.
His exhausted reaction and disbelief generated headlines around the world, and his critics celebrated.
Some pollsters, analysts and pundits who have long criticised Prof Lichtman's 13 keys system as smoke and mirrors, celebrated.
Several days after Mr Trump was declared the winner, he once again went live on YouTube to explain what might have gone wrong with his prediction method.
“I was far from the only forecaster to be wrong,” he said. “It's always possible that events could be so significant in a given election to change the pattern of history, and I think that's what happened here.”
Prof Lichtman noted the Democratic Party's public criticism of Mr Biden after his disastrous debate against Mr Trump. “If you trash a sitting president so badly, that's going to taint anybody associated with that president,” he said, referring to Ms Harris.
The fact that Ms Harris did not have to run in a primary meant it was difficult for him to decide whether to award her the “no contest” key. He added that his system relies on a pragmatic and rational electorate, and that perhaps the prolific amount of disinformation on social media meant voters might have become irrational and impractical, making the keys inaccurate.
“Over the next four years, I'll be looking closely at whether or not the fundamental premises still hold,” Prof Lichtman said, noting that he was open to suggestions from others about how to improve the system.
Some might have expected him to stay out of the spotlight after his fall from grace, but he took the opposite approach, churning out live-streamed podcasts and social media posts in which he gives his insights, reactions and opinions about the Trump White House.
His fans remained loyal and his YouTube account swelled to 190,000 followers.
Prof Lichtman has released a new book, Great American Presidents: The Twelve who Transformed the Nation. But he has largely stayed away from making any prediction for the 2028 US presidential election.
