G7 leaders watch a skydiving demo during their summit at Borgo Egnazia, Italy, this week. AP
G7 leaders watch a skydiving demo during their summit at Borgo Egnazia, Italy, this week. AP
G7 leaders watch a skydiving demo during their summit at Borgo Egnazia, Italy, this week. AP
G7 leaders watch a skydiving demo during their summit at Borgo Egnazia, Italy, this week. AP


The West led the old world order. Now, it should join the emerging one


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  • Arabic

June 20, 2024

When the tectonic plates shift in geopolitics, sometimes it’s rapid and noticeable: think how swiftly the communist regimes in Eastern Europe fell in 1989 and 1990 with the ending of the Cold War. At other times, it’s slower but still inexorable.

We are seeing another, equally dramatic, shift occurring now – the decline of the old world order, and the emergence of the new – illustrated by a series of recent events.

The joint communique issued at the end of the Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland last weekend was signed by 78 countries, but just as much attention was paid to those attending that didn’t do so. Those “key global powers” included Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand and the UAE.

I discussed why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has failed to gain greater traction with many Global South countries with one of South-East Asia’s top security officials last week. “The West thinks its problems are the world’s, but the world’s problems are not theirs,” he told me.

The official also pointed to the answer a former Indonesian foreign minister had given at a private meeting recently, when asked why Jakarta wasn’t more supportive of Ukraine. “Well,” he began, “it’s a long way away.”

It’s not that people in the region don’t care; but they don’t see any reason to give in to American or European pressure to take sides in a dispute in another continent that they view as none of their business.

A majority of countries in South-East Asia are more interested in the prospect of joining the Brics group – named after Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – which now has nine members, including the UAE and Egypt, and which aims to promote a more multipolar world order.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang meets Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas in Adelaide this week. EPA
Chinese Premier Li Qiang meets Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas in Adelaide this week. EPA
Is this the way US hegemony ends, to paraphrase TS Eliot, not with a bang, but a long drawn-out whimper?

The latest to announce their intention to join was Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. “We have made our policy clear and we have made our decision. We will start the formal procedures soon. As far as the Global South is concerned, we are fully supportive,” he said in an interview on Sunday. About 40 countries want to follow suit, according to officials in Russia, the current Brics chair.

Robert O’Brien, who served as former US president Donald Trump’s national security adviser, has just published an essay in which he recommends that the US decouple from China and consider sending the entire Marine Corps to the Asia-Pacific. But Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his New Zealand counterpart, Christopher Luxon, appear not to have read it – going by the friendly smiles they displayed during Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visits to their countries in the past few days.

New agreements on trade and the environment were signed in New Zealand, while Mr Li said relations with Australia were “back on track” and Mr Albanese hailed “constructive” talks and a “revitalised” bilateral engagement.

Contrast this with the recent G7 summit in Italy, where all the leaders – bar one – of what are supposed to be the developed world’s most important countries are facing mammoth challenges domestically.

The host, Giorgia Meloni, was the only western leader present riding high, after her party topped Italy’s polls in the European Parliament elections this month. Ms Meloni’s Brothers of Italy are variously described as “far right”, or more politely, “arch-conservative”. Are theirs the values that the West now regards as universal and wishes to export to the rest of the world?

This was presumably not what US President Joe Biden had in mind when he convened his “Summits for Democracy”. But we haven’t heard much about them recently, which is unsurprising considering how US support for Israel in Gaza has polarised world opinion and the chorus of those declaring an end to American exceptionalism continues to swell.

  • Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, Minister of Foreign Affairs, meets India's External Affairs Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar on the sidelines of the 'Friends of Brics' meeting in Cape Town, South Africa. All photos: Wam
    Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, Minister of Foreign Affairs, meets India's External Affairs Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar on the sidelines of the 'Friends of Brics' meeting in Cape Town, South Africa. All photos: Wam
  • Sheikh Abdullah with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
    Sheikh Abdullah with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
  • Sheikh Abdullah represented the Emirates during talks with foreign ministers from the Brics group of nations
    Sheikh Abdullah represented the Emirates during talks with foreign ministers from the Brics group of nations
  • Sheikh Abdullah with Mr Lavrov and other ministers
    Sheikh Abdullah with Mr Lavrov and other ministers
  • Sheikh Abdullah speaks with Hossein Amirabdollahian, Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs, on the sidelines of the Brics meeting
    Sheikh Abdullah speaks with Hossein Amirabdollahian, Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs, on the sidelines of the Brics meeting

From now on, whoever wins the next US presidential election, wrote one Bloomberg contributor this week, America will “behave as just another Great Power using its awe-inspiring might to serve a narrow self-interest”.

This is a highly significant change in itself. Still more remarkable was an essay published on Tuesday by the highly respected Scottish-American historian Niall Ferguson. Mr Ferguson has been describing the relationship between America and China as “Cold War II” since 2018. Naturally, he wants the US to triumph, just as it did over the Soviet Union in 1989.

“But it only recently struck me that in this new Cold War, we – and not the Chinese – might be the Soviets,” he wrote.

He singles out what he sees as an excessive budget deficit, too much government intervention in the economy, “a military that is simultaneously expensive and unequal to the tasks it confronts”, “gerontocratic leadership”, which he says was one of the “hallmarks of late Soviet leadership”, “total public cynicism about nearly all institutions”, mass deaths from addiction and a healthcare system that has become bloated and dysfunctional “even as the political and cultural elite double down on a bizarre ideology that no one really believes in”, and “a population that no longer regards patriotism, religion, having children, or community involvement as important”.

“Are we the Soviets?” he concludes. “Look around you.”

Is this the way US hegemony ends, to paraphrase TS Eliot, not with a bang, but a long drawn-out whimper? It’s interesting to note that Mr Ferguson, a conservative, uses the term “degenerate” to diagnose America’s condition, a word just as likely to spring from the lips of former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev as an accusation against the West in general.

I’m not going to make any moral judgement. But if Mr Ferguson and his allies don’t want the US – or the West more broadly – to lose “Cold War II”, they should reflect that there’s still time to chart a new course.

They could reject that very framing, and instead of railing at their loss of influence they could work with Brics and the Global South. Just because the old order they dominated is palpably fading, as recent events show, that doesn’t mean they can’t be part of the new emerging one.

The world lost a chance to unite after the disintegration of the Eastern Bloc. As the tectonic plates shift once more, let’s try not to lose another.

Muslim Council of Elders condemns terrorism on religious sites

The Muslim Council of Elders has strongly condemned the criminal attacks on religious sites in Britain.

It firmly rejected “acts of terrorism, which constitute a flagrant violation of the sanctity of houses of worship”.

“Attacking places of worship is a form of terrorism and extremism that threatens peace and stability within societies,” it said.

The council also warned against the rise of hate speech, racism, extremism and Islamophobia. It urged the international community to join efforts to promote tolerance and peaceful coexistence.

French business

France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.

Company%20profile
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'Ghostbusters: From Beyond'

Director: Jason Reitman

Starring: Paul Rudd, Carrie Coon, Finn Wolfhard, Mckenna Grace

Rating: 2/5

THE SPECS

      

 

Engine: 1.5-litre

 

Transmission: 6-speed automatic

 

Power: 110 horsepower 

 

Torque: 147Nm 

 

Price: From Dh59,700 

 

On sale: now  

 
Polarised public

31% in UK say BBC is biased to left-wing views

19% in UK say BBC is biased to right-wing views

19% in UK say BBC is not biased at all

Source: YouGov

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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UK’s AI plan
  • AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
  • £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
  • £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
  • £250m to train new AI models

North Pole stats

Distance covered: 160km

Temperature: -40°C

Weight of equipment: 45kg

Altitude (metres above sea level): 0

Terrain: Ice rock

South Pole stats

Distance covered: 130km

Temperature: -50°C

Weight of equipment: 50kg

Altitude (metres above sea level): 3,300

Terrain: Flat ice
 

Pakistan World Cup squad

Sarfraz Ahmed (c), Fakhar Zaman, Imam-ul-Haq, Abid Ali, Babar Azam, Haris Sohail, Shoaib Malik, Mohammad Hafeez(subject to fitness), Imad Wasim, Shadab Khan, Hasan Ali, Faheem Ashraf, Junaid Khan, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Mohammad Hasnain      

Two additions for England ODIs: Mohammad Amir and Asif Ali

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Director: James Cameron

Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana

Rating: 4.5/5

Why seagrass matters
  • Carbon sink: Seagrass sequesters carbon up to 35X faster than tropical rainforests
  • Marine nursery: Crucial habitat for juvenile fish, crustations, and invertebrates
  • Biodiversity: Support species like sea turtles, dugongs, and seabirds
  • Coastal protection: Reduce erosion and improve water quality
The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

Bareilly Ki Barfi
Directed by: Ashwiny Iyer Tiwari
Starring: Kriti Sanon, Ayushmann Khurrana, Rajkummar Rao
Three and a half stars

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Dubai Bling season three

Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed 

Rating: 1/5

Timeline

2012-2015

The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East

May 2017

The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts

September 2021

Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act

October 2021

Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence 

December 2024

Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group

May 2025

The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan

July 2025

The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan

August 2025

Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision

October 2025

Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange

November 2025

180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE

Groom and Two Brides

Director: Elie Semaan

Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla

Rating: 3/5

The%20specs
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Our legal consultant

Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Jetour T1 specs

Engine: 2-litre turbocharged

Power: 254hp

Torque: 390Nm

Price: From Dh126,000

Available: Now

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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11 cabbie-recommended restaurants and dishes to try in Abu Dhabi

Iqbal Restaurant behind Wendy’s on Hamdan Street for the chicken karahi (Dh14)

Pathemari in Navy Gate for prawn biryani (from Dh12 to Dh35)

Abu Al Nasar near Abu Dhabi Mall, for biryani (from Dh12 to Dh20)

Bonna Annee at Navy Gate for Ethiopian food (the Bonna Annee special costs Dh42 and comes with a mix of six house stews – key wet, minchet abesh, kekel, meser be sega, tibs fir fir and shiro).

Al Habasha in Tanker Mai for Ethiopian food (tibs, a hearty stew with meat, is a popular dish; here it costs Dh36.75 for lamb and beef versions)

Himalayan Restaurant in Mussaffa for Nepalese (the momos and chowmein noodles are best-selling items, and go for between Dh14 and Dh20)

Makalu in Mussaffa for Nepalese (get the chicken curry or chicken fry for Dh11)

Al Shaheen Cafeteria near Guardian Towers for a quick morning bite, especially the egg sandwich in paratha (Dh3.50)

Pinky Food Restaurant in Tanker Mai for tilapia

Tasty Zone for Nepalese-style noodles (Dh15)

Ibrahimi for Pakistani food (a quarter chicken tikka with roti costs Dh16)

A MINECRAFT MOVIE

Director: Jared Hess

Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa

Rating: 3/5

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Updated: June 20, 2024, 4:00 AM