Ceren Kenar is a consultant, political analyst and former journalist based in Istanbul and London.
April 01, 2024
Ordinary Turkish voters were left stunned following the conclusion of the local elections over the weekend.
The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) clinched 37.7 per cent of the nationwide votes, amassing 17.3 million votes, while the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) secured 35.5 per cent, totaling 16.3 million votes, according to the preliminary results released by the semi-official Anadolu Agency.
This marks an astonishing victory for Turkey’s opposition, the first of its kind since 1977. They captured the five largest cities in the country and garnered the highest number of votes nationwide.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan conceded defeat and acknowledged that it’s time for some soul searching. “Turkish democracy once again proved itself and we had some setbacks we didn’t hope for. We will listen to the people’s will and self-critique ourselves on our mistakes.”
CHP was expected to secure victories in the three largest cities where it already held power: Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. But the opposition surpassed expectations by securing wins in significant AKP strongholds across Anatolia, relegating it to the position of the second leading party in Turkey for the first time since its inception.
How did Mr Erdogan’s party experience such a significant setback less than a year after a major victory in the presidential election?
It was a disappointing weekend for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the governing AKP. AP
The impact of hyperinflation on rising living costs has caused dissatisfaction among many Turks
An AKP insider shed light on the notable disparity between last weekend’s vote and the one in May last year, saying: “While the majority of Turkish voters express a desire for President Erdogan to continue leading the country and endorse his leadership, it has become clear that many are also disillusioned with certain aspects of his policies.”
Mr Erdogan pursued populist economic policies in the run-up to last year’s election – such as increasing the minimum wage and pensions, and eliminating a retirement age requirement – but his economic team signalled a commitment to austerity measures and an orthodox monetary policy ahead of the local elections.
The impact of hyperinflation on rising living costs has caused dissatisfaction among many Turks, leading to a decline in their living standards. It appears there hasn’t been a significant voter shift from AKP to CHP, but rather that a considerable number of AKP voters have chosen not to vote, instead, in a silent boycott. The turnout for this election was 78.1 per cent – almost 6 per cent less than for the 2019 vote.
Following CHP’s triumph, smaller parties within the opposition bloc – such as the Democracy and Progress Party, Future Party, IYI Party and Victory Party – experienced resounding defeats, relegating them to near-insignificance in the political landscape. Moreover, Kurdish voters opted to support CHP candidates in metropolitan areas instead of those from the pro-Kurdish Democrat Party, resulting in a low turnout in Kurdish-dominated regions of the country.
Another notable outcome of the elections is the emergence of the New Welfare Party (YRP), founded as recently as 2018, which swiftly rose to become the third-largest party in the country, securing 6 per cent of the nationwide votes, totaling 2.8 million votes.
With its Islamist and far-right tilt, the YRP ran a campaign against the AKP, criticising the government’s failure to sever ties with Israel over the Gaza war, its decision to increase interest rates, and its endorsement of vaccination efforts. YRP effectively siphoned votes away from the AKP, bolstering the success of CHP candidates in numerous cities and districts.
According to several AKP insiders, Mr Erdogan will persist with austerity measures and orthodox economic policies, while keeping the current economic management team in place. However, an overhaul within the party leadership is expected.
Meanwhile, the opposition is jubilant. An adviser to Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, seen as the primary rival to Mr Erdogan in the 2028 presidential election, said: “Two trends collided: firstly, a deep wave of dissatisfied AKP voters left their party, and secondly, a new wave of voters joined CHP after the change in leadership.”
The election of Ozgur Ozel as the new CHP leader also seems to have revitalised the party, as Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s tenure ended after a series of election losses since 2010. Not only will the opposition benefit from a morale boost after these elections, but it will also enjoy increased monetary and non-monetary resources for better campaigning in the long run.
Mr Erdogan’s legitimacy won’t be significantly hampered by these elections, but a buoyed opposition could make governing even more challenging for him, particularly when it comes to unpopular austerity measures.
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Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
- Dh300 million set aside to train 18,000 jobseekers in new skills
- Managerial jobs in government restricted to Emiratis
- Emiratis to get priority for 160 types of job in private sector
- Portion of VAT revenues will fund more graduate programmes
- 8,000 Emirati graduates to do 6-12 month replacements in public or private sector on a Dh10,000 monthly wage - 40 per cent of which will be paid by government
