One month into the war, the ball remains in Israel's court

A woman hold a injured toddler following the Israeli bombardment of Deir Balah in the central Gaza Strip, at the Shuhada Al Aqsa hospital, on November 6 AFP

One month into the horrifying Israel-Gaza war and there are ample indications that it may be just starting. Another familiar scenario, however, suggests that it could end much sooner than many anticipate. Much depends on the US, the only power that Israel is currently inclined to listen to, but whose influence following the Hamas-led killing spree on October 7 is untested.

This latest Grand Guignol horror-show between Israelis and Palestinians has a familiar look: a provocation by a Palestinian or Lebanese militia, followed by demands for their total elimination and the "restoration of deterrence" by Israel, growing international condemnation and some visible American discomfort with Israeli war crimes and Arab suffering that ultimately brings fighting to an end.

This time, however, Israel was at least initially serious in vowing that Hamas as a viable organisation must be destroyed. Such practically unachievable war aims write the other side's victory speech for them. Israel has apparently walked into a gigantic trap, but one that will unfold gradually and over time.

Palestinians cry as they walk away after an area hit by Israeli missiles in Rafah, the Gaza Strip. AP

Palestinians with foreign passports wait for permission to leave Gaza at the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. Reuters

A Palestinian boy pushes a man on a wheelchair past debris in Rafah. AFP

A paramedic holds an injured bird as he searches through buildings destroyed during Israeli air raids in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip. Getty Images

Israeli soldiers take part in ground operations at a location given as Gaza. Reuters

A man listens for any potential sounds of life following an Israeli air strike on the Maghazi refugee camp in Gaza. AFP

People flee after Israeli air strikes on the Maghazi refugee camp. AFP

An Israeli soldier arranges artillery shells near the border with the Gaza Strip. AFP

Relatives and friends of those kidnapped during the October 7 Hamas attack hold photos of their loved ones during a protest calling for their return outside Israel's parliament. AP

Israeli flares illuminate the sky over west Gaza in the northern Gaza Strip. EPA

Smoke rises from northern Gaza after Israeli pounded the besieged enclave. AFP

Ambulances queue at the Rafah border as they wait to cross into Gaza to transport the injured back to Egypt for treatment. Getty Images

A woman holds an injured toddler following the Israeli bombardment of Deir Balah in the central Gaza Strip, at the Shuhada Al Aqsa hospital, on November 6. AFP

Displaced Palestinian children sit in a makeshift shelter at Al Shifa hospital, amid the Israel-Gaza war. Reuters

Israeli soldiers patrol outside a house destroyed during fighting with Hamas militants, in the kibbutz of Kfar Aza. Bloomberg

Palestinians from Bureij refugee camp use Salah Al Din street as they flee the southern Gaza Strip. AP

Palestinian children clean up outside their home after Israel struck Maghazi refugee camp in the Gaza Strip. AP

Khan Younis residents search through buildings destroyed during Israeli air raids. Getty Images

People take part in a candlelight vigil in Dizengoff Square, in Tel Aviv. Getty Images

Demonstrators rally in support of Palestinians in Denver, Colorado. AFP

Galya David, the mother of hostage Evyatar David, takes part in the 'Bring them home' event organised by the Greek Israeli Community in Athens. EPA

Lebanese parademics show the blood-stained high-vis jackets of four of their colleagues wounded after their ambulances were hit in a strike on the Lebanese town of Tayr Harfa. AFP

Flares are dropped by Israeli forces above Gaza, as seen from Sderot, near the border with the Palestinian enclave. AFP

Israeli forces at a position along the the border with Gaza. AFP

Palestinians search for bodies and survivors at Magazi refugee camp in Gaza after an Israeli air strike. Reuters

Leaflets are dropped by the Israeli army over Gaza city asking people to evacuate towards the south of the Palestinian enclave. AFP

An injured toddler awaits treatment at the emergency ward of Al-Shifa Hospital following an Israeli strike, in Gaza city. AFP

A Palestinian man wails amid a search for casualties after an Israeli strike on houses, at Magazi refugee camp, Gaza. Reuters

Anadolu news agency cameraman Mohammed El Aloul pictured after several of his children and siblings were killed in Israeli strikes. Reuters

Israeli soldiers walk past debris and damaged buildings at a location given as Gaza by Israel's military. Reuters

Protesters rally outside the White House in support of Palestinians in Gaza, Washington. Reuters

A man mourns after losing relatives following an Israeli air strike in Gaza city. AP

An art installation of prams with the faces of kidnapped children on display in Tel Aviv. Getty Images

An Israeli woman calls for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. AP

A Palestinian man stands on a collapsed building following a strike by the Israeli military on Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip. AFP

Palestinians gather at the site of Israeli strikes on a residential building in Khan Younis. Reuters

Thousands of civilians, both Palestinians and Israelis, have died since October 7, 2023. AFP

A Palestinian woman sits in the rubble as rescuers look for her relatives following the Israeli bombardment of Khan Younis. AFP

Smoke rises from Gaza as the conflict between Israel and Palestinian group Hamas continues. Reuters

Mourners at the funeral of Druze Israeli Lt Col Salman Habaka in the village of Yanuh Jat, northern Israel. AP

A Palestinian boy pulled from the rubble of a building following an Israeli air attack on Bureij refugee camp, in the Gaza Strip. AP

A survivor calls from Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis following Israeli air attacks. EPA

People wait on the Egyptian side of the border after passing the Rafah border crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. EPA

Pro-Palestinian supporters during a demonstration near a US military transport vessel at the Port of Oakland in California. AP

It is not that Hamas has unexpected weapons and tactics for killing or capturing Israeli reservists, although they may well. Rather, Hamas is clearly hoping Israel will allow itself to be drawn into a long-term ground presence in Gaza, so that Hamas can eventually organise a potent guerrilla insurgency against occupation forces. This will probably begin slowly, as hidden pockets of Hamas operatives either regroup in Gaza or return to it from neighbouring areas, or the insurgency has to be built almost from scratch.

Either way, if Israel is bogged down in a ground presence that it cannot fob off on anyone else – and who else would want to inherit a devastated and decimated Gaza Strip, along with the inevitable insurgency that would be visited on whoever appears to be acting on behalf of the occupation – such an insurgency is virtually inevitable.

Insurgencies build momentum over time, and Hamas plans to argue that, as it picks off Israeli soldiers individually or in small groups on a weekly basis, it alone is battling occupation forces over control of Palestinian land. They will draw the contrast with the Palestinian Authority and its security co-operation with Israel in the occupied West Bank, and the Palestine Liberation Organisation sitting, alone, at the negotiating table, waiting for non-existent talks.

Hamas was founded by the Muslim Brotherhood during the First Intifada in 1987 to eventually take over the Palestinian national movement from the secularists in Fatah, the PLO and the PA. In one of its most reckless and self-destructive policies, the Israeli right consistently bolstered and protected Hamas, while also periodically and literally cutting it down to size and keeping it contained by Gaza wars cynically described as "mowing the grass". The parallel policy was to ensure that the PA remained in power in the West Bank, but terribly weak both politically and institutionally, and making absolutely no progress towards liberation or statehood.

In March 2019 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu patiently explained to a meeting of Likud party Knesset members that, “Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas.” In case anyone didn't fully understand, he continued, "This is part of our strategy – to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank.” But obviously it was this "clever" policy of divide-and-rule that predictably culminated in the October 7 attacks. If Israelis are serious about their security, they will hold the authors of this policy to serious account.

Israel is on a quixotic mission to "destroy Hamas," which cannot be done, and to "restore deterrence," which also cannot be meaningfully accomplished except by ending, or at least moving towards ending, the occupation that began in 1967. Without substantive hope for eventual liberation, future October 7s are virtually guaranteed. But, instead, Mr Netanyahu and his Jewish supremacist cabinet colleagues – many of whom are presently trying to outdo each other in genocidal threats against the Palestinian people in Gaza and beyond – are moving inexorably towards large-scale annexation and, probably, mass expulsions.

Until the past few days, the Biden administration's main goal was to stop major fighting from spreading, particularly to include Hezbollah. But over the past month of mayhem this hasn't happened, and it probably won't unless there is a dramatic new development, especially fighting at holy places in occupied East Jerusalem, and above all, the Al Aqsa Mosque compound.

One of the few things all four key actors in this equation – the US, Iran, Hezbollah and Israel – strongly agreed about since October 7 is the imperative of preventing the war from spreading. That's primarily why it hasn't and probably won't.

In recent days, though, Washington has turned its attention to the need for a halt to fighting – marketed as a "humanitarian pause" to aid civilians – and implying that Israel needs to be careful not to go too far. This reminds everyone, especially Israel, that Washington has a limit to how much Arab suffering it can tolerate in its own interests, despite its practical and rhetorical embrace of Israel and refusal thus far to openly call for a ceasefire or say anything that would appear to draw a redline for Mr Netanyahu.

As usual, the ball is in Israel's court now. If it wants to pursue the folly of trying to practically destroy Hamas, it will be forced to initiate a prolonged ground presence in Gaza's urban streets. Israeli fantasies notwithstanding, no one else – not UN peacekeepers, an Arab expeditionary or police force, the PA security services, local Gaza residents, or anyone at all – is going to swoop in and rescue Israel from the disaster it has created over more than 60 years of occupation (since 2007 from the outside, by controlling the coastline, airspace, electromagnetic spectrum, and all but one crossing) not just for the Palestinians, but for itself, in Gaza.

The Israelis may eventually realise that the wisest course is to batter Hamas quickly and relatively cleanly, with as few civilian casualties as possible, and get out immediately, even if remnants of Hamas crawl out of the rubble and declare a resoundingly and obviously pyrrhic victory. All other plausible scenarios provide Hamas some version of what it was hoping to achieve before dawn on October 7. Such a victory would be all too real.

Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza