Shalom Lipner is a non-resident senior fellow of the Middle East programme at the Atlantic Council. From 1990 to 2016, he served seven consecutive Israeli premiers at the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem
August 03, 2022
Israel's parliament dissolved itself on June 30, ushering the way for Yair Lapid to replace Naftali Bennett as the country's Prime Minister on the next day. Elections have been scheduled for November 1, but recent precedents suggest that many long months might yet pass before politicians manage to form a stable, new coalition. The political upheaval has not diverted the focus of Israeli leaders from the challenge posed by Iran, however, where the goalposts are moving significantly.
The original Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was decidedly controversial within the Israeli policy establishment. Critics highlighted the deal's sunset clauses on restrictions to Iran's nuclear development and its silence with regard to other elements of Iranian belligerence. Those who voiced support for the agreement pointed, on the other hand, to the benefits of its interim checks on Iranian ambitions and to the necessity of avoiding open confrontation with Israel's primary ally in Washington. The 2018 withdrawal of then US president Donald Trump from the JCPOA eclipsed that debate when his "maximum pressure" campaign – whether because of its shortcomings or owing to its premature demise – witnessed a threatening surge in Iran's enrichment of uranium.
In July 2021, Mr Bennett, only a few weeks after assuming the premiership, accused his predecessor of falling asleep at the wheel. "Never in the history of the state of Israel," he lambasted Benjamin Netanyahu, "has there been someone who has spoken so much and done so little on Iran." Later that year, it was disclosed that, in 2019, Mr Netanyahu had twice denied the Israel Defence Forces funding requests for contingency planning vis-a-vis Iran – underscoring what Mr Bennett had referred to earlier as the "gap between the high rhetoric and the neglect that occurred".
The Bennett government devised its "Octopus Strategy" to strike directly in Iran, and not only at its proxies. Since the beginning of 2022, assaults on Iran's drone fleet near Kermanshah, a commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Tehran and the nation's steel industry have all been attributed to Israel. Iran's trumpeted captures – whether genuine or contrived – of Israeli agents within its borders have reinforced the impression that the Mossad has penetrated the country thoroughly.
A new reality may soon be upon us
US President Joe Biden's visit to Israel brought matters to a head. On July 14, Mr Biden reiterated his belief that "diplomacy is the best way" to ensure that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon. (In the Jerusalem Declaration, which he and Mr Lapid signed that afternoon, Mr Biden pledged that the US "is prepared to use all elements of its national power to ensure that outcome".) Mr Lapid, speaking alongside Mr Biden, had already telegraphed his scepticism. "Diplomacy will not stop them," the Prime Minister declared just before Mr Biden spoke. "The only way to stop them is to put a credible military threat on the table."
An apparent issue is Israel's preference for a more rigorous, "longer and stronger" Iran bargain than the one which the US is currently offering. Defence Minister Benny Gantz said as much on June 27, when he clarified that "Israel does not oppose a nuclear deal in itself; it opposes a bad deal". Two days after Mr Biden departed from Israel, Mr Lapid explained to Israel's cabinet that “we want the basis [for the negotiations with Iran] to be a credible military threat", but don't "necessarily agree on this with the Americans".
That difference of opinion may be moot. Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign affairs and security policy chief, proclaimed in the Financial Times on July 26 that "the space for additional significant compromises [with Iran] has been exhausted". The US is no less pessimistic about the way forward. Brett McGurk, the White House co-ordinator for the Mena region, has reportedly scored the chances of resuscitating the JCPOA as "highly unlikely". State Department negotiator Rob Malley has gone even further, pronouncing the deal "dead". In October 2021, Mr Malley, foreshadowing the current impasse, concluded that "at some point, the JCPOA will have been so eroded because Iran will have made advances that cannot be reversed, in which case we can’t be talking – you can’t revive a dead corpse".
A new reality may soon be upon us. According to former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak, "this summer, Iran will turn into a de-facto threshold nuclear state", at which point it will be virtually impossible to detect Tehran's march to nuclear weaponisation. Israel, if Mr Barak's assessment is accurate, is approaching a moment of decision.
The Enghelab Square in Tehran on July 31. AFP
Mr Lapid is covering his flanks. He remains tightly co-ordinated with the Biden administration, with which he attests to maintaining "an open discussion about what is the best way to deal" with the Iranian theatre, while also asserting Israel's "right to act freely on the subject". Operationally, Israel's inclusion in the US Central Command's area of responsibility, together with the consolidation of the Abraham Accords, has facilitated the emergence of the Middle East Air Defence alliance to deter aggressive Iranian behaviours.
The big question, though, is whether Israel would employ kinetic force to prevent Iran from a nuclear breakout. Asked last month about Israel's ability to confront Iran, Mr Gantz replied ominously that "we are able to seriously harm and delay the nuclear [programme]". His words came on the heels of Mr Biden's latest reaffirmation, in the Jerusalem Declaration, of America's "steadfast commitment to preserve and strengthen Israel’s capability to deter its enemies and to defend itself by itself against any threat or combination of threats".
Would Mr Lapid despatch Israel's air force to attack Iranian nuclear sites? The answer can't be known with any certainty, but what is known is that, if Israel did embark upon such a mission, it wouldn't be the first time.
In 2007, facing the imminent possibility of an active nuclear reactor across its frontier with Syria, Israel mobilised to obliterate the facility. By then president George W Bush's telling of the episode, "prime minister [Ehud] Olmert hadn’t asked [me] for a green light, and I hadn’t given one. He had done what he believed was necessary to protect Israel".
Today's circumstances are, to be sure, not identical to those of 15 years ago. But if Israel's leaders should perceive – now or ever in the future – that there's absolutely no time left on the clock to make any other play, an encore would not be entirely surprising.
Brief scores:
Toss: Nepal, chose to field
UAE 153-6: Shaiman (59), Usman (30); Regmi 2-23
Nepal 132-7: Jora 53 not out; Zahoor 2-17
Result: UAE won by 21 runs
Series: UAE lead 1-0
Bundesliga fixtures
Saturday, May 16 (kick-offs UAE time)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (4.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Freiburg (4.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin (4.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn (4.30pm)
Augsburg v Wolfsburg (4.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (7.30pm)
Muslim Council of Elders condemns terrorism on religious sites
The Muslim Council of Elders has strongly condemned the criminal attacks on religious sites in Britain.
It firmly rejected “acts of terrorism, which constitute a flagrant violation of the sanctity of houses of worship”.
“Attacking places of worship is a form of terrorism and extremism that threatens peace and stability within societies,” it said.
The council also warned against the rise of hate speech, racism, extremism and Islamophobia. It urged the international community to join efforts to promote tolerance and peaceful coexistence.
How to wear a kandura
Dos
Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
