Can the growing Russia-Iran alliance endure?

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, right, with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Tehran this week. EPA

With Russia struggling to overcome the impact of western isolation, its leadership is under pressure to strengthen existing alliances and develop new ones that can help safeguard its interests.

In the five months since invading Ukraine, the conflict has had a profound impact on Russia's standing. The heavy losses to its military in terms of equipment and manpower – the latest estimate by the US's Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) puts the total number of Russian combat fatalities at 15,000 – has seriously damaged Moscow’s standing as a military power.

Even more serious has been the devastating impact western sanctions have had on Russia's economy, forcing it to default on its international debt last month – for the first time since the Bolshevik revolution in 1917.

The extent of Russia’s isolation beyond the West is debatable, of course. It is true that only four countries – Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea and Syria – joined Moscow in opposing a UN General Assembly resolution in March demanding that the Kremlin “immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw" its forces from Ukraine. But it is just as telling that 35 countries, including China and India, abstained. In recent months, moreover, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was received in the Mena region, and Indonesian President Joko Widodo visited Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

With the international community divided over the war, it is not surprising that Mr Putin is keen to strengthen Russia's existing alliances that can both lessen the western isolation and help the country to circumvent sanctions.

In this context, Mr Putin’s visit to Tehran this week, where he had meetings with Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi, represents a bold attempt to bolster its alliance with a regime whose uncompromising commitment to an extreme ideology can often make it difficult for it to engage with states that espouse a more secular outlook.

An elderly couple stands near a damaged school in the city of Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine. EPA

At least one person was killed after shelling hit the school, the Ukrainian State Emergency Service said. EPA

A woman walks past a destroyed market near a railway station in Donetsk. Reuters

Municipal workers clean a street in Donetsk. Reuters

A man passes destroyed buildings in the Ukrainian town of Siversk. AFP

A destroyed school in Siversk. AFP

A Ukrainian serviceman passes by destroyed buildings in Siversk. AFP

A woman's home is repaired by volunteers after being destroyed by shelling in the village of Zalissya. AFP

People fill up water canisters in Mykolaiv, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. AFP

Grain fields burn on the outskirts of Kurakhove, Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine. AP Photo

The mother of Ukrainian serviceman Abdulkarim Gulamov, who was killed in a fight against Russian troops in Kherson, attends his funeral in Kyiv. Reuters

People carry pictures of Mr Gulamov at the funeral. Reuters

Ukrainian service members fire a shell from a M777 Howitzer in Kharkiv. Reuters

A man walks in front of a damaged school after a missile strike hit the city of Kramatorsk. EPA

A cyclist rides past burnt cars after a Russian rocket strike in Kharkiv. AFP

Rescuers and servicemen work at a school building damaged by a Russian military strike in Kramatorsk. Reuters

Sasha, 12, a refugee from Ukraine at the humanitarian aid centre set up at the Global Expo exhibition hall in Warsaw, Poland. AFP

Maksym and Andrii, 11-year-old boys, play with plastic guns at a self-made checkpoint along a motorway in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. AP

A Ukrainian soldier nicknamed 'Oakland' guards his position at the front line in the Kharkiv region. AP

Ukrainians look at destroyed Russian military equipment at an outdoor exhibition near the Church of the Three Saints in Kyiv. AFP

A member of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) militia sits in a makeshift bunker near Avdiivka, in the Donbas region of Ukraine. EPA

A DPR militia member monitors a section of the road near Avdiivka. EPA

Ukrainians pass a heavily damaged shopping mall in the city of Kherson. AFP

The rubble of a house in Moshchun village, about 20 kilometres outside Kyiv. EPA

A resident helps a firefighter put out a fire after an air strike in the town of Bakhmut, in the breakaway enclave of Donetsk. AFP

A woman surveys the devastation caused by an air strike in Bakhmut. AFP

Part of a projectile fire by a rocket launcher lies embedded in a wheat field in Ukraine's Kharkiv region. AFP

Members of the public look at a Ukrainian tank destroyed in a Russian attack, in Hostomel, north-west of Kyiv. EPA

Burnt out cars destroyed in Russian attacks are piled up in Hostomel. EPA

Jill Biden, US first lady, left, and US President Joe Biden welcome the first lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska, to the White House. EPA

Miami District Two commissioner Ken Russell, left, and Miami police chief Manuel Morales with weapons collected in the Guns 4 Ukraine initiative, at Miami City Hall in Florida. Guns bought back by Miami will be delivered to sister city Irpin, near Kyiv. EPA

A Ukrainian serviceman stands next to a Grad BM-21 multiple rocket launcher at the front line in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. AFP

A woman walks her dog in front of a block of flats hit by shelling in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine. EPA

A Kramatorsk resident peers out of a window lined with tape to reduce the impact of shattering glass. EPA

The damaged windows of an apartment, after shells hit a residential area in Kramatorsk. EPA

Rescuers working on a residential building partially destroyed by missile strike in Bashtanka, Mykolaiv as the Russian war in Ukraine continues. AFP

An Ukrainian infantry fighting vehicle lies by the roadside, having been destroyed by Russian forces in Ukraine. AFP

In the five months since invading Ukraine, the conflict has had a profound impact on Russia's standing

Despite their obvious ideological and religious differences, Russia-Iran relations have been improving in recent years as the two countries seek to challenge the West’s traditional dominance in global affairs. The willingness to co-operate on issues of mutual interest has been most in evidence at the protracted negotiations in Vienna aimed at reviving the controversial nuclear deal with Iran.

Western negotiators have accused Moscow of encouraging Tehran to concentrate on relatively minor issues at the talks, such as the presence of monitoring cameras at Iran’s nuclear facilities, rather than focusing on core issues, such as its nuclear enrichment activities. This is seen as a key factor in the lack of progress, with a number of western officials involved in the process now openly questioning whether it will be possible to conclude a deal.

The prospects suffered a significant setback this week after a key adviser to Mr Khamenei boasted that Iran now had the ability to build a nuclear weapon if it chose to do so. “Iran has the technical means to produce a nuclear bomb, but there has been no decision by Iran to build one," Kamal Kharrazi said at the weekend.

Russia-Iran co-operation at the nuclear talks has now led to a deeper alliance between the two countries, as was demonstrated by the warm reception Mr Putin received in Tehran on Tuesday. During what was Mr Putin’s first trip outside the erstwhile Soviet republics since the Ukraine conflict began, he received praise from Mr Khamenei for not succumbing to western pressure.

Prior to their meeting, Mr Khamenei praised the Russian leader on state television for ensuring his country had "maintained its independence" from the US. He added that the two countries needed to remain vigilant against “western deception". He also backed Mr Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, arguing that, had he not done so, Russia would have been the victim of Nato's aggression.

“If you had not taken the initiative, the other side would have caused the war with its own initiative," Mr Khamenei said. "If the road is open to Nato, it knows no boundaries, and if it was not stopped in Ukraine, it would start the same war sometime later under the pretext of Crimea.”

British RAF Typhoon fighter jets fly during a military ceremony at the Aviation Heroes monument in Bucharest, Romania, on Wednesday. AP Photo

Mr Putin’s visit is likely to result in increased co-operation between the two countries on a variety of issues beyond the nuclear front. Iran has already pledged to lend its expertise in evading sanctions to Moscow to help the Kremlin maintain oil sales on global markets. One can expect increased arms shipments, too, with Tehran reportedly offering to provide hundreds of drones to support Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.

The visit certainly appears to have given Mr Putin renewed confidence to adopt a more robust position in his stand-off with the West over the problematic issue of Ukrainian grain exports, currently being prevented from reaching global markets due to Moscow's naval blockade of Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea.

In Tehran, Mr Putin also met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was keen to lobby for support for a military offensive against Syria’s Kurds, a move that Russia and Iran, both backers of the Assad regime in Damascus, have resisted.

After meeting both the Iranian and Turkish leaders, Mr Putin warned that he would only ease the path for Ukrainian grain exports if the West lifts sanctions on Russian shipments. An estimated 20 million tonnes of grain are said to be held in Ukraine because of the Russian blockade, raising the prospect of global starvation this winter.

CIA director William Burns has raised questions, though, about Iran and Russia's ability to form a lasting pact. Speaking at this week’s Aspen Security Forum, Mr Burns, a former US ambassador to Moscow, said both countries need each other right now. "Both are heavily sanctioned countries, both looking to break out of political isolation," he pointed out.

He, however, warned the Iranians and the Russians “don’t trust each other", describing them as "energy rivals and historical competitors".