The global push for net-zero climate emissions may end up amplifying oil politics, not removing it completely.
The current juxtaposition of high energy prices and the ramping up of investment for and commitments to more sustainable sources of power is a handy illustration of what the future might look like, as the world presses forward to deliver on the goals of the Paris climate agreement. Natural gas prices, which are linked to crude, have nearly doubled this year, as several parts of the world, particularly Europe, experience shortages. This, in turn, is a spur to inflation and a risk to the economic recovery after the Covid-19 pandemic.
Oil politics was on display on the eve of the Cop26 summit in Glasgow, when US President Joe Biden said his applying pressure on producers to increase the supply of oil and gas while simultaneously urging an acceleration of the energy transition was not “inconsistent”.
Mr Biden is undoubtedly attempting to balance short-term needs with long-term necessities. He has already made clear his desire for the Opec+ group, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, to loosen the taps to relieve consumers paying more at the pumps. "It’s not at all inconsistent in that no one has anticipated that this year we would be in a position, or even next year, that we’re not going to use any more oil or gas," Mr Biden said.
As he delivered his remarks on energy transition, the US president sought to emphasise on the word "transition". “The idea we’re going to be able to move to renewable energy overnight and ... from this moment on not use oil or not use gas or not use hydrogen, it’s just not rational," Mr Biden said.
But as the week progressed, he began to put the responsibility for high energy prices squarely on Opec’s shoulders. Now, while Mr Biden is right to say that his overall position does not contradict with the broader climate goals, his confrontational approach will not aid the very momentum the world is trying to build to tackle such an urgent challenge as global warming, the solutions to which can only be harnessed together.
Especially as more than 50 nations including the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, have crossed the Rubicon on climate change and the idea of net-zero carbon emissions in the next 30-40 years looks achievable.
As Mr Biden concedes, that does not mean that oil will disappear. In fact, as renewable energy becomes a greater part of the mix and producing oil and gas becomes less lucrative, there will be the counterintuitive scenario that energy security will become more, not less, complex. This is an important consideration for governments and those they serve, according to the International Energy Agency.
In the IEA's scenario for net-zero by 2050, Opec becomes more important, accounting for more than half of the world’s oil supply, up from more than one third today. Overall, net-zero creates “new potential vulnerabilities associated with the need to maintain reliable, flexible and secure electricity systems, and with the increase in demand for raw minerals for clean energy technologies”, the IEA said this week.
The debate is now centred on the pace of investment in clean energy, which everyone agrees must pick up, while ensuring the amount spent on oil and gas is at such a level as to prevent the kind of volatility we have seen this year becoming a fixture. “An effective and orderly transition will be critical – not only to reach international climate targets but also to prevent serious supply disruptions and destabilising price volatility along the way,” Keisuke Sadamori, director of the office for energy markets and security at the IEA, said last month.
This comes back to how important what the current crop of leading oil and gas producers do is. Striking a balance between today and tomorrow seems easier said than done, as political pressures and fiscal realities create day-to-day noise. Yet, the critical role played by countries such as the UAE in managing a balanced energy transition also requires that their vision for the road to net-zero be given equal weight as compared to developed nations.
In a similar vein, India, one of the largest energy consumers, is firmly following its own timetable to net-zero – in 2070, according to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He also made clear that developed countries should play their part in helping India to achieve these goals. Indeed, co-operation is key. Whether through investment or technology, countries will need to help one another in their efforts to meet climate targets.
If short-term worries such as high oil prices dominate the agenda, then the atmosphere of collaboration created by gatherings such as the one in Glasgow will quickly evaporate. In truth, as we progress towards net-zero and the energy mix evolves, the rhetoric is likely to become more barbed and less conciliatory.
Change, after all, is never easy.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Croatia v Hungary, Thursday, 10.45pm, UAE
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
What is tokenisation?
Tokenisation refers to the issuance of a blockchain token, which represents a virtually tradable real, tangible asset. A tokenised asset is easily transferable, offers good liquidity, returns and is easily traded on the secondary markets.
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20Tabby%3Cbr%3EFounded%3A%20August%202019%3B%20platform%20went%20live%20in%20February%202020%3Cbr%3EFounder%2FCEO%3A%20Hosam%20Arab%2C%20co-founder%3A%20Daniil%20Barkalov%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Payments%3Cbr%3ESize%3A%2040-50%20employees%3Cbr%3EStage%3A%20Series%20A%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Arbor%20Ventures%2C%20Mubadala%20Capital%2C%20Wamda%20Capital%2C%20STV%2C%20Raed%20Ventures%2C%20Global%20Founders%20Capital%2C%20JIMCO%2C%20Global%20Ventures%2C%20Venture%20Souq%2C%20Outliers%20VC%2C%20MSA%20Capital%2C%20HOF%20and%20AB%20Accelerator.%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
AIR
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBen%20Affleck%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMatt%20Damon%2C%20Jason%20Bateman%2C%20Ben%20Affleck%2C%20Viola%20Davis%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company: Instabug
Founded: 2013
Based: Egypt, Cairo
Sector: IT
Employees: 100
Stage: Series A
Investors: Flat6Labs, Accel, Y Combinator and angel investors
Manchester United v Club America
When: Thursday, 9pm Arizona time (Friday UAE, 8am)
MATCH INFO
Juventus 1 (Dybala 45')
Lazio 3 (Alberto 16', Lulic 73', Cataldi 90 4')
Red card: Rodrigo Bentancur (Juventus)
ANDROID%20VERSION%20NAMES%2C%20IN%20ORDER
%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Alpha%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Beta%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Cupcake%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Donut%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Eclair%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Froyo%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Gingerbread%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Honeycomb%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Ice%20Cream%20Sandwich%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Jelly%20Bean%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20KitKat%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Lollipop%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Marshmallow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Nougat%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Oreo%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%20Pie%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%2010%20(Quince%20Tart*)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%2011%20(Red%20Velvet%20Cake*)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%2012%20(Snow%20Cone*)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%2013%20(Tiramisu*)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%2014%20(Upside%20Down%20Cake*)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAndroid%2015%20(Vanilla%20Ice%20Cream*)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3E*%20internal%20codenames%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More coverage from the Future Forum
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
MATCH INFO
Burnley 1 (Brady 89')
Manchester City 4 (Jesus 24', 50', Rodri 68', Mahrez 87')
Confirmed%20bouts%20(more%20to%20be%20added)
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The specS: 2018 Toyota Camry
Price: base / as tested: Dh91,000 / Dh114,000
Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 298hp @ 6,600rpm
Torque: 356Nm @ 4,700rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
Prop idols
Girls full-contact rugby may be in its infancy in the Middle East, but there are already a number of role models for players to look up to.
Sophie Shams (Dubai Exiles mini, England sevens international)
An Emirati student who is blazing a trail in rugby. She first learnt the game at Dubai Exiles and captained her JESS Primary school team. After going to study geophysics at university in the UK, she scored a sensational try in a cup final at Twickenham. She has played for England sevens, and is now contracted to top Premiership club Saracens.
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Seren Gough-Walters (Sharjah Wanderers mini, Wales rugby league international)
Few players anywhere will have taken a more circuitous route to playing rugby on Sky Sports. Gough-Walters was born in Al Wasl Hospital in Dubai, raised in Sharjah, did not take up rugby seriously till she was 15, has a master’s in global governance and ethics, and once worked as an immigration officer at the British Embassy in Abu Dhabi. In the summer of 2021 she played for Wales against England in rugby league, in a match that was broadcast live on TV.
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Erin King (Dubai Hurricanes mini, Ireland sevens international)
Aged five, Australia-born King went to Dubai Hurricanes training at The Sevens with her brothers. She immediately struck up a deep affection for rugby. She returned to the city at the end of last year to play at the Dubai Rugby Sevens in the colours of Ireland in the Women’s World Series tournament on Pitch 1.
History's medical milestones
1799 - First small pox vaccine administered
1846 - First public demonstration of anaesthesia in surgery
1861 - Louis Pasteur published his germ theory which proved that bacteria caused diseases
1895 - Discovery of x-rays
1923 - Heart valve surgery performed successfully for first time
1928 - Alexander Fleming discovers penicillin
1953 - Structure of DNA discovered
1952 - First organ transplant - a kidney - takes place
1954 - Clinical trials of birth control pill
1979 - MRI, or magnetic resonance imaging, scanned used to diagnose illness and injury.
1998 - The first adult live-donor liver transplant is carried out
RESULT
Bayer Leverkusen 2 Bayern Munich 4
Leverkusen: Alario (9'), Wirtz (89')
Bayern: Coman (27'), Goretzka (42'), Gnabry (45'), Lewandowski (66')
SPECS
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The specs: 2018 GMC Terrain
Price, base / as tested: Dh94,600 / Dh159,700
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Power: 252hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 353Nm @ 2,500rpm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.4L / 100km
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
THE%20HOLDOVERS
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Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
The Bio
Favourite place in UAE: Al Rams pearling village
What one book should everyone read: Any book written before electricity was invented. When a writer willingly worked under candlelight, you know he/she had a real passion for their craft
Your favourite type of pearl: All of them. No pearl looks the same and each carries its own unique characteristics, like humans
Best time to swim in the sea: When there is enough light to see beneath the surface
The Uefa Awards winners
Uefa Men's Player of the Year: Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Uefa Women's Player of the Year: Lucy Bronze (Lyon)
Best players of the 2018/19 Uefa Champions League
Goalkeeper: Alisson (Liverpool)
Defender: Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Midfielder: Frenkie de Jong (Ajax)
Forward: Lionel Messi (Barcelona)
Uefa President's Award: Eric Cantona