After many years in which North Korea was rarely at the top of the political agenda, the conflict on the Korean Peninsula is now a matter of strong debate – and stronger threats. In the past few weeks, there has been a flurry of activity, with military exercises conducted in the region by both North Korea and South Korea and two failed missile launches by the North.
At the same time, the United States has ratcheted up the pressure. Donald Trump has warned that the US could “end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea”. A US anti-missile system was deployed in South Korea. The US secretary of state last week addressed the United Nations, calling on the body to act in the face of what he called “the most pressing security issue in the world”. He repeated that all options were still on the table.
Such talk is deeply concerning. North Korea has the ability to hit heavily populated areas in South Korea and Japan – including the capitals of both countries – with conventional weapons, to say nothing of their nuclear capability. Pyongyang has a history of lashing out when provoked and with the US issuing such strongly-worded pronouncements, the possibility of retaliation against the South cannot be dismissed.
At the same time, the last US administration hardly made progress on ending North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. The peninsula has only become more dangerous and the decades-old split between the North and the South shows no signs of being resolved. Treating the new Kim regime with kid gloves has not yielded any political results so far.
So the Trump administration’s focus on the problem is overdue, as is the recognition by Mr Trump that China, North Korea’s biggest trading partner, is not using all its leverage. But such tough talk must be accompanied by careful diplomacy. The North’s economic model is unsustainable. Targeting that may yield better results than military sabre-rattling. Quietly pressuring China may be better than public condemnations. North Korea is a tough case to crack, but it will take quiet determination – not a sharp shock.
