ISIL’s military strategy has often been opaque. Indeed, that has been one of the chief reasons it was initially underestimated and only recently recognised for the threat it is.
But opaque or not, its strategy has definitely evolved. When, in an earlier incarnation, it fought the Americans in Iraq, it did so by conducting guerrilla raids, attacking military targets before vanishing into the local population. The subsequent retaliation by US troops only bolstered ISIL’s argument that the occupation of Iraq was harming ordinary Iraqis. When ISIL, again in an earlier incarnation, arrived in Syria, it set about forging links with the locals. This gained it popular support and made it easier to move among the population. In the past year, ISIL has sought to carve out a “state” across national borders.
All of this seems to be a logical progression of ISIL’s plans. But Friday’s attack on a base in western Iraq is more puzzling. A few hundred US forces are stationed there, training Iraqi forces to fight ISIL. On Friday, the extremist group used suicide bombers and other militants to try to breach the base. It failed in the attempt but gaining the base – although a straightforward military advance – is unlikely to have been the intended goal. ISIL know the facility is heavily guarded. If the reports are correct, ISIL sent eight suicide bombers and 15 fighters to attack what is one of the largest US bases in Iraq.
It would seem that ISIL was aiming for a public relations and a psychological victory rather than a military win.
Public relations is an important consideration. From ISIL’s perspective, any attack on the US forces is viewed as positive by its supporters and those it seeks to recruit. Right now, the group is seeking to reassure fighters that, far from being on the back foot after the loss at Kobani, it is still a fighting force.
Psychologically, the attack matters even more. It demonstrates to the US and its Iraqi and Arab allies that ISIL is unafraid to confront them, even in a heavily guarded complex. A staple of guerrilla warfare is to ensure that the other side never feels safe anywhere. ISIL is reverting to this tactic, seeking a psychological victory and perhaps to draw the US into another ground campaign. It knows that, after Afghanistan and Iraq, the US military and public cannot stomach a bloody, drawn out conflict. The method in the madness of the attack on the base makes ISIL a sinister enemy.
