Compared to the signs of hope that appeared to be emerging from Iraq less than two years ago, the series of bomb attacks coordinated by ISIL that have killed more than 100 people in and around Baghdad in recent weeks present a rather bleaker picture. Combined with supporters of Shia cleric Muqtada Al Sadr storming the parliament then settling into Baghdad's Green Zone – claiming to support the government's fight against corruption – hope is increasingly a commodity in short supply.
All this is a contrast to what had been a series of gains. When divisively sectarian prime minister Nouri Al Maliki was eased out of the leadership in favour of Haider Al Abadi in 2014, it was hoped that the violence between Iraq’s Shia, Sunni and Kurdish communities would lessen. Similarly, ISIL had, until recently, been steadily losing territory because of a determined campaign by the Iraqi military, backed by international support.
Some might interpret the bombing campaign as a reflection of ISIL’s diminishing power, prompting it to carry out these attacks in a bid to re-establish its relevance. However, that would be to underplay the fact that the bombings were conducted far from the group’s base in western Iraq and eastern Syria, showing its ability to strike remains undimmed. Similarly, the targeting of sites that have armed protection, such as the natural gas plant north of Baghdad in which at least 14 people died, show that it is not solely choosing soft targets, such as the football cafe and market its members also attacked this week.
It remains too early to say if these attacks are part of something more sinister. The correct path for Iraq remains unchanged: progress will be made by a government working for all Iraqis, by vanquishing those who seek to profit personally from either corruption or sectarian divisions, by attacking extremist groups such as ISIL and by creating the economic opportunities so ordinary people can get ahead. If the government can succeed in achieving that, it will have countered ISIL’s cynical bombing campaign with a programme that benefits all Iraqis.