In 2016, Donald Trump was brand-new to the presidency and, by many accounts, did not expect to win. It took him time to learn the ropes of domestic and foreign policy, and for much of his first term, many in his foreign policy and defence teams were long-term professionals who often opposed many of his ideas.
In his second term, Mr Trump came back with the experience of a former president and picked a domestic and foreign policy team composed of loyalists who echo and amplify his positions. In the second year of this second term, Mr Trump has been further empowered by his success last year of upending domestic and foreign policy in a revolutionary way. Mr Trump is currently coming off the high of the dramatic US operation in Venezuela.
In the Middle East, Mr Trump’s return has had – and will continue to have – significant consequences. The US President started last year with a visit to the Gulf that cemented and deepened the partnerships with America. These relationships, once based largely on energy for security, have deepened to include the future technologies of computing and artificial intelligence as well as large-scale investments and trade corridors, all without dropping the importance of traditional energy concerns.
During that visit, Mr Trump announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria – and later met President Ahmad Al Shara – a decision that reversed more than 65 years of strategic hostility between Washington and Damascus and that might help the Levant, including Syria and Lebanon, rise again.
Mr Trump started his second term seeking a deal with Iran, and oversaw several rounds of negotiations through his envoys. However, impatient with a lack of progress, he joined Israel in June in waging a 12-day war that struck Iran’s nuclear programme. Through the rest of the year, Mr Trump stepped up sanctions on Iran, all the while indicating that he was ready for a deal if Tehran would accept zero uranium enrichment and curb its missile programme as well as its regional militia network.
During much of the year, Mr Trump gave Israel wide leeway to pursue its policies in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. But he changed position after Israel’s strikes inside Doha in September. After giving new security assurances to Qatar and other nervous GCC countries, he pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a 20-point peace plan for Gaza, announced in October.
In November, he received Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the White House, the latter’s first visit to the US since 2017, further strengthening the US-Saudi and US-Gulf relations. During that visit, Mr Trump said he had been convinced by the Crown Prince to add ending the war in Sudan to his to-do list.
Throughout the year, Mr Trump also continued to trumpet his message that he wanted to expand the list of Abraham Accords countries during his second term, even if that proved to be not achievable in the short term.
As the year ended – and before the large-scale protests in Iran would dominate the headlines – Mr Trump looked back on 2025, satisfied that he had “ended” the war in Gaza, devastated Iran’s nuclear programme, cemented lucrative relationships with the Gulf and encouraged both Syria and Lebanon to move forward.
It is impossible to predict what Mr Trump might do this year – and he considers this unpredictability a strategic asset – but the new year started with all eyes on the major demonstrations in Iran. Mr Trump came out in strong support of the protesters and threatened Tehran with military strikes if the government resorted to killing. At the time of writing, he has toned down those threats, but has also ordered a carrier battle group and other US military assets to assemble in and near the Arabian Gulf.
Ultimately, Mr Trump still wants a deal – on his terms – with Iran. As with Venezuela, he might not be interested in regime change but rather in encouraging elements within the Iranian system to make a deal with him. How the US-Iran relationship will evolve this year will depend not only on Mr Trump’s decisions, but on how events develop inside Iran and what decisions an increasingly embattled leadership in Tehran makes.
In Gaza, the Trump administration started the year with the announcement of a credible Palestinian technocratic committee to administer the territory. This was followed by the announcement of the members of the Board of Peace that Mr Trump leads. In other words, the US President is serious about following through on his 20-point peace plan, even if Israel is reluctant.
Mr Trump and his team have maintained a generally strong pro-Israel policy throughout both his terms, although he and Mr Netanyahu often butt egos. This is despite significant elements of Mr Trump’s Maga base sharply questioning such blanket US support for Israel. The dynamics of the relationship will be much affected this year by the run-up to and results of Israeli elections that will be held some time before October.
The US President still wants Israel to grasp the opportunity of peace with Saudi Arabia – something that would require significant concessions to the Palestinians – but this remains something that Mr Netanyahu and his extreme-right government have not been willing to prioritise.
Mr Trump is a man of constant surprises and hence any venture to predict what he will do in the Middle East over the next 12 months is a fool’s errand. But one can see some elements of continuity: maintenance and strengthening of US-Gulf relations; keeping the pressure high on Iran in order to get to a deal on his terms – or short of that, greatly weakening and containing it; maintaining strong relations with Israel while pressing it to end this round of war with the Palestinians and move towards negotiation and peace making; working with Turkey and other countries to avoid an Israeli-Turkish conflict; encouraging the Syrian Democratic Forces to integrate with Damascus; and preventing ISIS and Iran from returning in Syria.
Mr Trump will continue to have a free hand in foreign policy throughout this year, with his decisions bound only by his “own morality”, as he recently put it. However, he will face midterm elections in November, and if the Republicans lose both houses, the President could have a more constrained 2027.
