Lifting sanctions could give Syria a fighting chance

A teller counts banknotes at the Syrian Central Bank in Damascus on Thursday. The World Bank has published data that shows Syria’s real GDP was projected to contract by 1.5 per cent last year. EPA

If anything reflects the incredible momentum currently behind Syria’s political transition it is the fact that just over a month ago the country was labouring under the weight of international sanctions. Most of those restrictions remain in place for now but Sunday's meeting of western and Arab powers hosted by Saudi Arabia revealed high-profile support for scrapping them.

Speaking at the conference, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan addressed the “importance of lifting unilateral and UN sanctions imposed on Syria” adding that “their continuation will hinder the ambitions of the Syrian people in achieving development and reconstruction”. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot suggested last week that EU sanctions that impeded the country’s economic recovery could be lifted quickly and the US has already issued a sanctions exemption for transactions with some Syrian governing institutions for six months.

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This is all recognition of the deleterious effect that sanctions have had on Syria’s economy and long-suffering people. However, there remains some hesitancy among western powers about immediately lifting economic restrictions from Syria’s interim administration, a body that has so far promoted foreign fighters to high-profile state security positions but has yet to produce a clear roadmap for governance or state exactly what kind of Syria it wants to build. An example of this caution was seen in Riyadh on Sunday, when Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, said the bloc was considering how to ease sanctions but added that the new government must include women and “different groups” and avoid radicalisation.

However, the focus right now should not be on Syrians’ meeting others’ expectations to unlock sanctions. The process should be the other way around – carefully lifting sanctions that hinder recovery will help the new government to build the kind of country that the EU, the US and others will want to engage with. Although the impetus behind moves towards a functioning, stable and just Syria is strong now, allowing the nation’s economic crisis to drag on by moving too slowly threatens to slow or even halt it. Having endured years of hardship, Syria’s people are rightly impatient to see improvements in their lives.

The reality is that Syria’s new authority has inherited sanctions that were aimed at criminalising trade with a different government. That government is gone and Syria’s ailing economy cannot afford an impasse where sanctions relief is delayed as western countries wait to see what kind of state emerges.

The focus right now should not be on Syrians meeting others’ expectations to unlock sanctions - the process should be the other way around

Yes, there are many caveats against hurriedly lifting sanctions, as they present important leverage over the new authorities in Syria. Furthermore, the rule of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, the de facto governing power in Syria, does not extend to all parts of the country owing to the Israeli occupation in the south-west and the Kurdish-led administration in the north-east. A national dialogue conference scheduled for earlier this month and was intended to bring together all parts of Syrian society has been postponed.

The EU is to discuss the possibility of lifting sanctions on Syria in a meeting in Brussels at the end of January. Ministers should consider the dire straits Syria finds itself in; last May, the World Bank published data that showed Syria’s real gross domestic product was projected to contract by 1.5 per cent last year. As of 2022, poverty affected almost 70 per cent and extreme poverty reached 27 per cent, up from a negligible level in 2009. Given these sobering statistics, it is difficult to argue against a controlled, cautious but determined move towards freeing up Syria’s economy, giving its nascent government – and more importantly its people – a fighting chance.