Make no mistake, this is a terrible result for Boris Johnson.
Sure, he can claim victory; of course, his sycophantic supporters, many of whom owe their ministerial positions to his patronage, can hail it as a triumph.
The reality, however, is that more than 40 per cent of Tory MPs have no confidence in him as leader. Johnson knows all too well, as the beneficiary of her demise, it is a far worse outcome than that experienced by his predecessor, Theresa May. In her case, 33 per cent voted against her and she was soon gone.
Yes, he will talk a good game, he usually does. No one does boosterism and bravado better than Johnson. It’s words, however; the Johnson balloon is deflating rapidly.
Outwardly, he is a Teflon Don, a king who never appears to be wounded. Arrows appear to bounce off him, nothing cuts through.
Listening to him, though, after the votes were announced, there was a rare, downbeat, quivering tone to his voice, as if he was struggling to believe his own claim of being able to concentrate on “coming together”.
How does that work when four out of every 10 of your Parliamentary colleagues have no faith in you?
If he had a stronger, more independent-minded senior Cabinet team, he would be told it was time to go — which is what happened to Margaret Thatcher.
Others, less thick-skinned, would of course be packing their bags immediately. They would have departed by now
The outlook contains little respite. Next up are two by-elections, one in the ‘Red Wall’ seat of Wakefield, the other in the hitherto impregnable Tory stronghold of Tiverton.
Lose those and the signs are ominous, then Johnson’s star slips still further. After that, the Commons privileges committee begins examining whether he knowingly misled the House over parties in Downing Street during lockdown.
This takes no account either of a worsening economy and cost-of-living crisis, rising NHS waiting lists and increased crime. In theory, another vote can’t be held for 12 months.
But those rules could be changed. At the same time, too, that is a confidence vote held by his own party.
What happens if Labour called its own no-confidence vote in the government? What then? Would those 148 Tories who have given him the thumbs down, side with the opposition?
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Boris Johnson has had an eventful time during his life in politics and journalism. Here, 'The National' looks back at his life in pictures. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson attends the coronation ceremony of Britain's King Charles III at Westminster Abbey in May. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson leaves his home to attend a televised evidence session in March in front of the Commons Privileges Committee. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson listening to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy address parliamentarians in Westminster Hall in February. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson and Carrie Johnson arrive at Westminster Abbey for the state funeral of Queen Elizabeth II in September 2022. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson he announces his resignation as prime minister outside 10 Downing Street in July 2022. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson at a press conference in response to the publication of the Sue Gray report into Partygate at Downing Street in May 2022. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson reads the long-awaited report by senior civil servant Sue Gray into the Downing Street party scandal, in his Downing Street office in May 2022. Photo: Downing Street -
Mr Johnson and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in central Kyiv in April 2022. The British prime minister paid an unannounced visit to Kyiv in a show of solidarity with Ukraine. AFP -
Mr Johnson watches an early morning police raid on a home in Liverpool as part of an operation to thwart drug dealing, in December, 2021. Getty Images -
The prime minister battles with his umbrella while with Prince Charles at The National Memorial Arboretum in July 2021, in Stafford, England. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson and his wife before the Uefa European Championship final between Italy and England at Wembley Stadium, London, in July last year. Getty Images -
The British prime minister with US President Joe Biden, European Council President Charles Michel, former Japanese prime minister Yoshihide Suga and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi during the G7 Summit in Cornwall, in June 2021. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson with his wife Carrie in the garden of 10 Downing Street after their wedding at Westminster Cathedral, in May last year. Getty Images -
Boris Johnson visits Hartlepool after Conservative Party candidate Jill Mortimer won a parliamentary by-election in May, 2021. Getty Images -
The prime minister after receiving the first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine at St Thomas' Hospital in London in March, 2021. Getty Images -
Boris Johnson after signing a Brexit trade deal with the EU in December 2020. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson examines a vial of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 candidate vaccine, at a pharmaceutical manufacturing facility in Wrexham, Wales, in November 2020. Getty -
Mr Johnson demonstrating the two-metre distancing rule during his visit to St Joseph's Catholic Primary School in Upminster, East London, in August 2020. PA -
In this photo, published alongside the Sue Gray report into the Partygate affair, Mr Johnson is seen at a gathering in the Cabinet Room in 10 Downing Street on his birthday in June, 2020. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson and former chancellor Rishi Sunak use hand sanitiser during a visit to the Pizza Pilgrims restaurant in June 2020, in east London, to see how they are getting their business ready to reopen as coronavirus lockdown restrictions were lifted in England. PA -
Mr Johnson and his fiancee Carrie Symonds applaud key workers outside 10 Downing Street in May 2020, during the coronavirus pandemic. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson in the Cabinet Room observing a minute's silence in April 2020 in a tribute to the health staff and key workers who died during the coronavirus outbreak. PA -
Boris Johnson appears on monitors for a meeting in March 2020. The prime minister chaired morning meetings on the coronavirus remotely from Number 11 Downing Street, while self-isolating after testing positive for the virus. Reuters -
Members of a family listen as BMr ris Johnson makes a televised address to the nation from 10 Downing Street in March 2020, where he outlined the latest instructions to stay at home to help contain the Covid-19 outbreak. AFP -
Mr Johnson speaks to British troops stationed in Estonia during a one-day visit to the Baltic country in December 2019. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson and Carrie Symonds enter Downing Street as the Conservatives celebrate a sweeping election victory in December 2019. Getty -
Boris Johnson is greeted by staff at 10 Downing Street after meeting Queen Elizabeth II and accepting her invitation to form a new government in December 2012. PA -
Former US president Donald Trump and Mr Johnson arrive for a bilateral meeting during the G7 summit in August 2019 in Biarritz, France. Getty -
The queen welcomes Mr Johnson as the newly elected leader of the Conservative Party, during an audience in July 2019. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson, then Britain's foreign secretary, stands in front of St Basil's Cathedral during a visit to Moscow's Red Square in December 2017. Getty -
Mr Johnson collides with a child during a Street Rugby tournament in Tokyo in 2015, held to mark Japan hosting the 2019 Rugby World Cup -
As mayor of London Mr Johnson competes in a tug-of-war in October 2015. Getty Images -
The Olympic Flag is passed from Mr Johnson to IOC President Jacques Rogge during the closing ceremony of the London 2012 Olympic Games. Getty Images -
Mayor of London Boris Johnson with Prime Minister David Cameron during the lighting of the Paralympic Cauldron in Trafalgar Square, in August 2012. PA -
Boris Johnson gets stuck on a zip-line during a BT London Live event in Victoria Park in August 2012. Getty -
Mr Johnson and Lord Sebastian Coe cheer as a giant set of Olympic rings is displayed from Tower Bridge in June 2012, Getty Images -
Mr Johnson gestures attends a Harry Potter studio tour of Diagon Alley, at the Warner Brother Studios, London, in December 2011. AP Photo -
Mr Johnson at the launch of London's first cycle hire scheme in July 2010. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson with artists' impressions of the design for London's new Routemaster bus in May 2010. Getty Images -
The candidates to be mayor of London; Labour's Ken Livingstone, Conservative Boris Johnson and Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick, being questioned on BBC's 'Newsnight' programme in April 2008. Getty Images -
Boris Johnson on the North Pier in Blackpool during the Conservative Party conference there in October 2005. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson at his desk in 2000 while he was a journalist for 'The Telegraph'. Getty Images -
Mr Johnson when he was president of the Oxford Union society speaking to the Greek minister for culture Melina Mercouri when she addressed the union. Reuters -
Boris Johnson in September 1979, at Eton School. Shutterstock
The vote against him, don’t forget, came after the minimum of organisation. There was some, but not much – this was not a concerted putsch.
Imagine what would have occurred if the rebels had been given more time. They have that ability going forward, to plot and to plan. This was the result, too, without a clear favourite to succeed him. That person may also emerge.
It was a vote about Johnson, his character and his MPs’ faith in him. He won, but bear in mind that 160 to 170 Tory MPs are on the government payroll, their jobs and ministerial salaries are down to him. This makes it even more of a crushing setback.
He knows that. The morning after the EU referendum result in 2016, Johnson emerged from his home to the sound of boos. He was genuinely taken aback, upset, that as the victor he was not greeted by universal cheering.
It was a reaction that went to the heart of Johnson. He is someone who desperately wants to be loved.
The jeers he received during the weekend’s platinum jubilee celebrations will have stung – not least because they were from pro-royal, usually Tory supporters. Now this.
It’s hard to see how even Johnson punches back, how he can command. He is bereft. The question has been answered: it’s not if he stands down but when.
