If any of the roughly 1,500 attendees at a Saudi-backed investment forum hoped US President Donald Trump would offer a pathway to end the Iran war, they were mistaken.
In his 70-minute address at the Future Investment Initiative summit in Miami, Mr Trump claimed Iran would have targeted its neighbours with a nuclear weapon. According to him, he “saved” the Middle East, and tipped his hat at Gulf allies under attack amid a conflict he started.
Mr Trump also did not make any mention of the regime change he called for on February 28, exhorting Iranian civilians to take back their country.
The shifting objectives appear to suggest a man without a plan.
Publicly, attendees in Miami displayed resiliency on the topic of the war. Panelists acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the conflict, but otherwise kept the focus on a long-term view with regard to the investment outlook. Saudi Public Investment Fund governor Yasir Al Rumayyan, for example, said the kingdom remains committed to its global investments.
One might wonder how much of this stiff-upper-lip attitude is real.
An attendee told The National they were shocked no one was addressing the “elephant in the room”. Another wondered, perhaps jokingly, if Mr Trump would use his Friday keynote to announce the US was going to nuke Iran.
Joking or not, that question underscores the unserious language coming from Mr Trump's administration.
At one point, the US President called the Strait of Hormuz – the current centre of global economic consternation – the “Strait of Trump”.
“Excuse me, I'm so sorry,” he said to chuckles in the audience. “Such a terrible mistake.”
Meanwhile, casualties climb in the region. Two Emiratis were killed and three others were injured on Thursday after debris from an intercepted Iranian missile struck the outskirts of Abu Dhabi.
The International Monetary Fund has warned the war will weaken economic growth in the Gulf, while the World Bank says at-risk countries are already seeking its assistance.
Recent research from Goldman Sachs gave a sobering view on the economic impact in the region.
“The Iran war is unambiguously bad for business in the Gulf, resulting in sharp declines in oil and gas production and revenue as well as broader economic activity," the report said. "Beyond the near-term hit, the war could also leave lasting scars on regional economies, though much will depend on the regional energy landscape and geopolitical order that emerges once the dust settles, which remains far from clear.”
Also in question are the eye-popping investment commitments to the US that were made last year.
Economists have already questioned the feasibility of Saudi Arabia's $1 trillion US investment, and the kingdom has been scaling back some its giga projects as it recalibrates its spending. Sovereign wealth funds will have less capital to invest because of a hit to their revenue, while shifting focus to domestic priorities.
Data to be released in the coming weeks will give a clearer idea of how disruptive the war has been for Gulf economies.
Globally, the world must also brace for higher inflation and lower growth.
The IMF said a 10 per cent sustained increase in oil prices would boost global inflation by 40 basis points while reducing economic output by 0.1 to 0.2 per cent. The price for Brent crude has increase by more than 36 per cent since the war began.
Central banks, scarred by the post-pandemic inflation surge, are taking notice. Rate hikes are on the table for the European Central Bank, while the Federal Reserve and Bank of England could stand pat for the rest of the year.
Meanwhile, markets are floundering. The Dow Jones Industrial Average joined the Nasdaq in correction territory on Friday. Gulf markets have also suffered losses, with the steepness reflecting the economic impact on each country.
Mr Trump claims he solved eight wars. He and Israel started another in the Middle East in which Gulf states are bearing the brunt - and their economies could pay the price.
