Could Zohran Mamdani become New York City's first Muslim mayor?

Indian-American socialist candidate has momentum, but faces significant challenges

If lyrics to the famous Frank Sinatra song about New York hold true – “if you can make it here, you can make it anywhere” – then the sky is the limit for Zohran Mamdani, a Muslim socialist hoping to become the city's next mayor.

Most polls show the New York state Democratic assembly member is doing well, but not quite dominating the primary race taking place on June 24. Mr Mamdani trails former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who resigned in disgrace amid several scandals in 2021.

But Mr Mamdani has captured the zeitgeist among Democrats who feel their party isn't far enough to the left on economic issues. He has leaned into his Muslim faith and occasionally used his prolific social media presence to hit back at rumours stemming from it.

“When you’re the first Muslim elected official to run for mayor, people say some pretty wild things,” he said in a widely shared video. “When we held our first major campaign rally and handed out these bandanas, one former city council candidate said they were hijabs.”

Holding up the bandana, Mr Mamdani pointed to various images portraying day-to-day life in New York City, including hot dogs and pigeons.

The state assemblyman, first elected in 2020, was born in Uganda but moved to New York with his parents at the age of seven. His father, Mahmood Mamdani, is a prominent academic, and his mother, Mira Nair, is an Indian-American filmmaker and producer.

According to his New York Assembly biography, while attending Bowdoin College, he helped to co-found the school's first Justice for Palestine chapter. “In high school, Zohran co-founded his school’s first ever cricket team,” reads his bio. “Though not ostensibly a political one, this taught him how coming together with a few like-minded individuals can transform rhetoric into reality.”

Mr Mamdani was not available for an interview for this story.

In addition to showcasing his faith, he's also campaigned in Hindi, with a recent video about income inequality in the city receiving more than 5.2 million views on X. Some have criticised his accent, while right-leaning Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporters in India have taken issue with his left-leaning economic policies.

Mr Mamdani's vigorous social media campaign – one of his only similarities with US President Donald Trump – might be enough to propel him to victory, according to some experts. “Zohran Kwame Mamdani is the real deal,” said Timothy Kneeland, a professor of history, politics and law at Nazareth University in upstate New York.

“He has endorsements from the left, a cross-section of interest groups that includes Jewish, Labour and sustainability groups like the Sunrise movement, and he has support from elected officials on the New York City Council and in the New York State legislature who can be his surrogates in their neighbourhoods.” Prof Kneeland added that voter-turnout operations could prove to be the key to an upset in the race.

Perhaps most importantly, Prof Kneeland said that in the context of the mayoral race, Mr Mamdani has been riding the wave of resentment among New Yorkers towards former resident Mr Trump.

“I am Donald Trump’s worst nightmare, as a progressive Muslim immigrant who actually fights for the things that I believe in,” Mr Mamdani said last week during the mayoral primary debate, where he consistently spoke to the main themes about economic inequality and the rising cost of living in New York.

Democratic mayoral candidates Andrew Cuomo (L), shakes hands with Zohran Mamdani (C), as Whitney Tilson reacts after participating in a Democratic mayoral primary debate in New York. EPA

If elected, he has promised to freeze rent prices, create a universal childcare programme and make the city's buses faster and free. How does he plan to do all that? He's taking a page out of the progressive taxation playbook popular with socialist politicians including Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.

“I will pay for this by taxing the 1 per cent, those billionaires and the profitable corporations that Mr Cuomo cares more about than working-class New Yorkers, I will ask them to pay their fair share so we can have a city that everybody can afford,” he said during the debate, taking a shot at the former New York governor.

Speaking of Mr Sanders, popular Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whom many consider to be his protege, has endorsed Mr Mamdani. Mr Mamdani is currently trailing Mr Cuomo in the polls. There is, however, a twist to the race that could lead to surprises on election night: ranked choice voting.

The ranked-choice system operates as a series of instant run-offs, in which the candidate in last place is eliminated and his or her votes redistributed based on voters' second choice. That process repeats until a winner is decided.

Many argue it's a much more democratic way to hold elections, but it also makes them difficult to predict with conventional polling methods, which could mean that Mr Cuomo's lead will evaporate once the votes are counted and redistributed.

“I think it's brilliant,” Prof Kneeland said. “It modifies the sort of forced choice between two people and allows you to say, 'you know what, I really like this other party candidate, but I'm afraid, if they don't win, then the person that I absolutely detest is going to get elected'.”

Mr Mamdani is using the ranked-choice system to his advantage, encouraging supporters to donate to other candidates in the primary.

“Why would I be asking you to donate to her?” said Mr Mamdani in a video posted to social media in which he pushes for people to donate to fellow mayoral candidate Adrienne Adams. “Because, we are all running together to defeat Andrew Cuomo ... and in order for us to do so, we need to make sure every campaign has the resources it needs.”

Mr Cuomo still has the highest name identification recognition among the nine democratic candidates seeking a primary win. With low-information voters, that's a highly coveted and tough-to-overcome obstacle for challengers. To confront this, Mr Mamdani's campaign is carrying out an intense get-out-the-vote canvassing effort.

Zohran Mamdani's campaign boasts of a loyal, enthusiastic and sizeable get-out-the-vote canvassing plan that it says will help the candidate exceed expectations. Adla Massoud / The National

“In order to propel him over the critical hurdle to the general election, we're here today to knock on our fellow New Yorkers' doors, and make sure everybody is clear about ranking Zohran number one on the ranked choice voting ballot,” said one of the canvassing organisers to about a dozen volunteers.

“Also, we want to make sure they won't be ranking Andrew Cuomo anywhere on the ballot.” If enough New Yorkers follow those instructions for the June 24 primary, Mr Mamdani will be on track to potentially win the November general election.