The National's 2024 US election poll results in full

Survey finds the war in the Middle East is an issue for US voters, but domestic concerns dominate

Former president Donald Trump is behind Vice President Kamala Harris nationally, but is edging ahead in the all-important swing states. AP

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The National this week published the results of an exclusive poll that underscored how close the November 5 presidential election will be and revealed US voters' attitudes to the war in the Middle East and a range of pressing domestic issues.

The Deltapoll survey of more than 3,000 adults, including 1,340 swing-state voters, was conducted between October 17 and 24.

Here is a breakdown of the polling questions and its summarised results. Not all percentages add up to 100 due to rounding.

Which candidate will you vote for in the election?

Former president Donald Trump: 48%. Vice President Kamala Harris: 51%. Some other candidate: 1%. Ms Harris's 3-point national lead is within the margin of error.

Of note: when respondents from swing states were asked, Mr Trump is ahead by one point (50% to 49%). Men were more likely than women to back Mr Trump (52% to 44%) and the reverse was true for Ms Harris, with 47% of male respondents backing her compared to 55% of women.

Mr Trump leads among men and white voters; Ms Harris with women and ethnic minorities. There is very little switching between candidates, so instead the result will come down to who can get their supporters to turn out. Currently Trump supporters are more likely to say they will vote, but again the differences are within the margin of error.

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable view of these political leaders?

A total of 55% of respondents had a somewhat or very unfavourable view of President Joe Biden. For Ms Harris it was 46% and for Mr Trump it was 54%. With just over half (52%) viewing Ms Harris favourably, she is ahead of Ms Trump, who is at 46%.

Compared to Ms Harris and Mr Trump, their running mates JD Vance and Tim Walz have a much higher proportion who say they don’t know if they have a favourable or unfavourable view of the candidate (17% and 19%, respectively). Mr Walz is slightly ahead of Vance on favourability (42% against 39%).

Putting aside any support for a political party or candidate, who would be best for the US economy?

Democrats Ms Harris and Mr Walz are slightly ahead of Republicans Mr Trump and Mr Vance on the question of who would be best for the US economy, but at 50% compared with 45%, there is little in it.

The Democratic candidates do maintain their lead, however, among those from swing states, as well as nationally.

What do you think are the most important problems facing you and your family?

Prices and the cost of living and the economy are clearly the most important issues (51% and 40%, respectively, put them in the top three). Immigration and health care form a second tier of issues (24% and 22%, respectively) with abortion and a woman's right to choose (17%), housing (16%) and crime (14%) forming the third tier.

Foreign policy issues were further down the list of top concerns. Only 3 per cent of respondents listed the war in Gaza as one of the top three concerns facing them and their families. However, when asked the broader question of how important the war Middle East is in determining their presidential pick, 71 per cent said it was either “very” or “fairly” important, while 23 per cent said it was not important. Six per cent were unsure.

What do you think are the most important problems facing the US?

Similar to the previous question, prices and the cost of living and the economy come top at both the national level (40% and 38%, respectively) and among those in swing states (44% and 40%, respectively).

How important are foreign policy issues in determining who you will vote for?

While foreign policy issues score relatively low in relative terms, in absolute terms, a large majority of respondents still say they are important in determining their vote at the election.

More than eight in 10 (81%) say foreign policy issues are important. More than half of Trump supporters (53%) say they are very important compared to 43% of Harris supporters.

How important would you say the war in the Middle East is in determining your vote?

The proportion who specifically say that the war in the Middle East is important in determining their vote is slightly lower, but it is still very high. More than seven in 10 (71%) say it is important, including more than a third (35%) who say it is very important.

Has President Biden generally done the right thing or the wrong thing with the war in Gaza?

Just less then half (49%) of respondents said Mr Biden has generally done the wrong thing with Gaza. This rises to more than eight in 10 (81%) Trump supporters.

Just more than half (52%) of Harris supporters believe he has done the right thing. Nearly a quarter (24%) of Harris supporters believe Mr Biden has done the wrong thing.

Has President Biden generally done the right thing or the wrong thing when it comes to the war between Ukraine and Russia?

On the war in Ukraine, 46% of respondents believe Mr Biden has done the wrong thing but nearly four in 10 (39%) think the opposite, including nearly seven in 10 (68%) of Harris supporters.

Eight in 10 (80%) Trump supporters believe Mr Biden has done the wrong thing, virtually identical to the 81% who thought the same about the war in Gaza.

Which of the following would be your preferred position for the next US President on the war in Gaza?

Supporting a negotiated diplomatic settlement between the Israelis and Palestinians is the most popular preferred cause of action for the next US president to take. At 39%, it is well ahead of supporting Israeli military action in Gaza and stopping military aid to Israel in second and third (18% and 16%, respectively).

Among Trump supporters, a negotiated settlement and supporting Israeli military action are equally popular (both on 31%), but for Harris supporters a negotiated settlement is by far the most popular option on 49%.

Which of the following would be your preferred position for the next US president when it comes to the war in Ukraine?

Supporting a negotiated diplomatic settlement in Ukraine is also the most popular position on the war in Ukraine on 44%.

Supporting military action against Russia is the second most popular option among Harris supporters (29%), while for Trump supporters stopping aid to Ukraine is the second most popular option (28%).

Would you support or oppose the next US president doing each of the following?

• Recognising an independent state of Palestine: 44% support, 20% oppose, 36% don't know.
• Banning arms sales to Israel: 41% support, 37% oppose, 22% don't know.
• Continuing to provide weapons to Israel: 44% support, 34% oppose, 22% don't know.
• Making a public demand for a full ceasefire to take place in Gaza: 59% support, 20% oppose, 21% don't know.
• Demanding an end to Israeli military action in Lebanon: 49% support, 25% oppose, 26% don't know.
• Supporting military action against Iran: 43% support, 31% oppose, 26% don't know.

Of the two main candidates running to be the next US president, which do you believe would best support …?

• Arab-American communities in the US: Mr Trump 34%, Ms Harris 51%, don't know 15%.
• Jewish-American communities in the US: Mr Trump 42%, Ms Harris 46%, don't know 12%.
• The Israeli government: Mr Trump 46%, Ms Harris 38%, don't know 16%.
• The Palestinian people: Mr Trump 28%, Ms Harris 53%, don't know 19%.

Of the two main candidates, which would be more likely to bring about a swift end to fighting in the Middle East?

Mr Trump: 46%, Ms Harris 41%, don't know 13%.

Of the following statements, which comes closest to your own view?

The US is currently the world's only superpower: 23%. The US is no longer the world's only superpower: 58%. The US has never been a superpower: 7%.

Do you personally support or oppose Israel's military action in Gaza?

The percentage who personally support Israel’s military action in Gaza (39%) is exactly the same percentage who oppose it, but support is slightly ahead of opposition among those from swing states (40% compared with 34%).

Among Harris supporters, 46% oppose the action compared with 32% who support it, while for Trump supporters 51% support it and 30% are opposed.

Do you personally support or oppose Israel's military action in Lebanon?

At a national level, 40% oppose Israel’s military action in Lebanon, compared to 34% who support it. By a margin of two to one, Harris supporters oppose the action (50% compared with 25%). Trump supporters, meanwhile, support the action, but by a smaller margin (46% to 30%).

Would you personally support a two-state solution in the Middle East?

A majority (56%) support a two-state solution, rising to more than two thirds (68%) of Harris supporters. Among Trump supporters, 48% back it.

How likely or unlikely do you think it is that a two-state solution will happen in the foreseeable future?

At the national level, nearly half (48%) think it is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future – a figure similar for both Harris and Trump supporters (45% and 51%, respectively). Just under a third (32%) think it is likely to happen, rising to 37% of Harris supporters. For Trump supporters, the figure is 28%.

Of the two main candidates running which do you believe is more trusted by the international community when it comes to the situation in the Middle East?

There is an even split over whether Mr Trump or Ms Harris is more trusted by the international community when it comes to the situation in the Middle East (44% against 46%, respectively) and foreign policy issues generally (45% against 47%). Supporters almost unanimously favour the candidate they support on these questions.

Of the following two countries, Israel and Iran, which do you believe represents the greatest threat to peace in the world?

Nearly half (49%) believe Iran rather than Israel represents the greatest threat to peace in the world. For Trump supporters, this figure rises to 62%. For Harris supporters, the figure is 43%.

Nationally, one in seven (14%) believe it is Israel. Nearly one in five (19%) believes neither represents a threat.