How would a second Trump presidency impact the UN?

Donald Trump and many Republicans are deeply distrustful of the UN and other international forums

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and US President Donald Trump at the UN in 2017. Reuters

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With just six weeks until America's presidential election, other countries are bracing for former president Donald Trump's potential return to the White House.

At the United Nations, attention is turning to how a second Trump administration could alter the US stance on the Security Council, where it holds a veto and is consistently pro-Israel.

Even though he will not be speaking at this year's UN General Assembly, which moves into high gear this week, Mr Trump will be an elephant in the room as conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine and Sudan are discussed, as well as climate change and other global issues.

Mr Trump and many Republicans are deeply distrustful of the UN and other international forums. A former Trump-era diplomat to the United Nations told The National that “respect for the UN has its limits, and the [Trump] administration will refuse to be bogged down in dialogue that hinders its geopolitical vision”.

During Mr Trump's term in office, his administration antagonised the UN, targeting perceived anti-Americanism and going after agencies it considered corrupt. The diplomat argued that the Trump administration identified long-standing issues, such as an excessive focus on and criticism of Israel's actions, as barriers to progress.

Under a second Trump term, the diplomat predicted the US would probably withdraw once more from the Human Rights Council and limit engagement with the World Health Organisation and Unesco, as well as block regimes such as Iran or Venezuela from serving on UN committees.

Nikki Haley and Kelly Craft, who served as Mr Trump's UN ambassadors, tried to shift scrutiny from Israel while also countering Beijing’s ambitions to lead various UN agencies, the diplomat added. “We would likely see the UN bypassed more often than under the Biden administration,” they concluded.

Republicans from across the party's widening ideological spectrum are sceptical of the UN. Mike McCaul, the Republican Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said the General Assembly needs to address a “declining ability of the UN to undertake serious reform”.

“While ineffective at solving conflict, the unique role the UN plays in providing humanitarian assistance to innocent civilians suffering from conflict and disaster should be strengthened,” he told The National.

Under the Trump administration, Washington halted funding for UNRWA, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Middle East.

Mr McCaul believes a second Trump administration would establish “rigorous oversight and accountability of UN funds, whether it is money going into Afghanistan or UNRWA”.

Republicans have led a bi-partisan charge in Washington that saw the successful halt on US funds for UNRWA, which under current law will continue until at least 2025. Many Republicans want the agency shut down entirely. Democrats remain critical of UNRWA but some are moving to restore its funding.

Mr Trump withdrew the US from several key UN bodies, including the Human Rights Council, WHO and Unesco, as well as from the Paris climate agreement. Mr McCaul calls such bodies “flawed entities resistant to change”.

If the world body “survived” the Trump administration, it is due largely to Secretary General Antonio Guterres. “It wasn’t something that was obvious … it's something that needs to be said,” another diplomat told The National.

As the General Assembly's high-level week begins on Tuesday, Richard Gowan, the UN specialist a the International Crisis Group, anticipates the foremost topic in private discussions will be the potential impact of a second Trump term.

Mr Gowan noted that significant cuts to the UN budget are likely, as many congressional Republicans express strong support for reducing US funding, especially in light of the current geopolitical climate. “It's not very pretty,” Mr Gowan said.

But there are points of tension between the Republican foreign policy leadership and Mr Trump's more right-wing corner of the party. Party members such as Mr McCaul have forcefully criticised Russia and support packages for Ukraine since Russian President Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion in 2022.

Mr Trump has described Mr Putin as “pretty savvy” and a “genius,” and has threatened to condition support for fellow Nato countries on them paying 2 per cent of GDP towards defence.

The radical House Freedom Caucus, which most aligns with Mr Trump, have been outliers in Congress with their demands to temper US support to Ukraine. But Mr McCaul says he is optimistic that a second Trump administration would “prioritise putting pro-democracy, anti-authoritarian nominees on crucial boards and subagencies to promote our democratic values” at the UN.

“We need strong American leadership at the UN. This includes when we are standing up for our allies and partners like Israel and Ukraine, and when we are confronting our adversaries,” he added. “Let’s not forget: the Biden-Harris administration has repeatedly stuck to its policy of appeasement, which has only emboldened our adversaries.”