The summer started well for Nigel Farage, with his hard-right Reform UK party leading the polls by a healthy distance.
Newspapers had for a year been reflecting seriously on his potential to become Britain’s next prime minister, should he take power amid a populist surge similar to that of his friend, US President Donald Trump.
But this week, the anti-immigration politician faces a farcical situation of his own creation: standing to hear the result of a by-election he called, alongside his main rival – a man wearing a bin on his head. "Where," his supporters might ask, "did it go wrong, Nigel?"
Modern British politics has long departed from the predictability of the days before Brexit. Its now customary turbulence has carried Andy Burnham into Downing Street, the result of a Labour party seeking a leader with a realistic chance of seeing off Mr Farage's challenge in two years' time.
Just three weeks into office, the former Manchester mayor has given Labour a “Burnham bounce” that has for the first time since early 2025 put the party ahead in the polls. Mr Burnham, who replaced the industrious but not very politically astute Keir Starmer, has had an immediate appeal, with his honest, open style of talking and astute social media communication.
Clacton-in-space
Is this the end of Reform’s surge? After a decade of economic and social struggle, many Britons crave a change in politics to "bring back the good times" and are willing to vote for anyone who promises it. It was that thinking that allowed the populists to sell Brexit, winning a referendum before the concept could be given serious examination and setting Reform, known at the time as the Brexit Party, on the path to becoming a genuine election force.
Mr Farage is now under belated scrutiny, which is proving uncomfortable for the former stockbroker. It has emerged that he received a £5 million donation ($6.7 million) from a crypto billionaire just months before he stood for Parliament in the 2024 general election, in which Reform secured four million votes, or 14 per cent of the electorate.
The ensuing headlines, particularly from a right-wing press that had not previously been hostile to him, showed that Mr Farage might not quite possess the thick skin honed by veterans of Westminster's bruising arena.
He was rattled, so much so that in a moment of questionable judgment in early July, he resigned his Clacton seat. He said: “The media are judging me to be a dishonest person, so it is only fair to say to the voters, 'You judge.'"
If he wanted a fight, he did not get one. One after another, the mainstream parties announced they would not stand candidates in the by-election, leaving the field clear for the satirist Count Binface, whose popularity has subsequently soared.
With just £500 needed as a deposit to stand in any British parliamentary election, the self-styled “intergalactic space warrior” has proved a regular fixture, sharing a platform very recently with Mr Burnham.
Burnham's bounce
That was at the Makerfield poll in June, another manufactured by-election. The incumbent MP resigned to allow Mr Burnham a route back into Parliament. That proved the end of Mr Starmer’s two-year tenure as leader, with Mr Burnham becoming the UK’s seventh prime minister in a decade on July 20.
former Labour leader adviser
With a flurry of low-key announcements – ending homelessness and establishing a “Number 10 North” – and a more engaging style (his TikTok account has 450,000 followers), his positive, down to earth manner has had an impact. The latest YouGov poll shows Labour’s net favourability has reached its highest level since November 2024, while Reform has sunk to its lowest.
A third of Britons (34 per cent) now have a positive opinion of Labour, up six percentage points since June to hit the highest level recorded since shortly after the July 2024 general election. Another poll has shown Labour on 27 per cent and Reform on 25 per cent.
“The Labour Party has a new energy about it. People are feeling pretty positive and the polling shows we're in a good space,” said Emma Burnell, editor of the Labour List publication. “But governing is hard and it involves hard choices, so how long Andy can sustain it? That's all up in the air.”
Hard choices
Those decisions will confront Mr Burnham when Parliament returns next month, with the need to increase taxes or borrowing to pay for greater government spending the most difficult.
There is now “a short, small window where he's got the public's attention to make big announcements", said Andrew Murray, a former Labour leader adviser. “But that might be closing pretty fast.
“He has an autumn for more substantive policy announcements, or it's going to look a bit same old, same old. I mean, he’s a nicer bloke than the last one, but Britain still has the same problems.”
Mr Burnham has already shown he is willing to devolve powers, including tax-raising powers, to enable regions to help themselves. But there are big challenges ahead. He needs to spend more on defence, but will this require borrowing that might break the fiscal rules he promised to maintain? The welfare budget is untenable, yet many Labour MPs do not want it cut. And they have become used to rebellion, forcing Mr Starmer into many U-turns.
But those MPs will also realise that Mr Burnham is likely to be their only chance to win the next general election.
Talking rubbish
That will surely feel a long way off for Mr Farage as he shares the by-election declaration stage with Count Binface and umpteen other British political eccentrics (the Monster Raving Loony party has three candidates) at Thursday’s Clacton count.
Anything less than 80 per cent of the vote would be an “utter humiliation for him", Mr Murray said. Markets currently put his rival on at least 25 per cent.
A return to Parliament would not be a triumphant moment. The investigation into Mr Farage’s questionable funding – he denies any wrongdoing – will restart immediately. If the Standards Committee finds him in breach and suspends him for more than 10 days, a “recall petition” would be triggered and, if 10 per cent of Clacton’s voters sign it, he would vacate the seat.
That would then lead to another by-election in the autumn, but this time the major parties would participate, with a chance that Mr Farage could lose the seat. That scenario would have massive ramifications for what is essentially a one-man party, despite Reform having seven MPs besides Mr Farage.
Whatever the outcome, Count Binface will be on stage to witness it with the enviable ability to smirk, unseen, to infinity and beyond.
