The UK’s long-awaited Defence Investment Plan is expected to be published imminently and will mark one of the most significant shifts in British military strategy since the end of the Cold War.
With Ukraine and Iran wars demonstrating the evolution of combat dominated by autonomous fighting machines, the idea of a new generation of warships has been ditched in favour of drones.
This means Britain’s global projection of power will be constrained, with its “East of Suez” posture quietly dropped.
The Royal Navy’s two large aircraft carriers could now become much less prominent, as their ability to deploy without escorting destroyers would be limited, although they too could become platforms for drones.
The DIP blueprint, which No 10 Downing Street told The National would be “published imminently”, will set out how the government intends to fund its ambitions and whether departing Prime Minister Keir Starmer has effectively rewritten the plan after his former defence secretary John Healey resigned over funding issues.
The package is expected to total around £14.5 billion ($19.2 billion), about £1 billion more than the Treasury had previously offered but short of the £28 billion defence officials argued was required to fully deliver last year’s strategic defence review.
The announcement was preceded by a meeting between Mr Starmer and Mark Rutte, the Nato Secretary General, on Monday, with the Prime Minister calling Nato “the single most successful military alliance the world has ever known”.
Mr Rutte thanked Mr Starmer for stepping up defence spending and leading the “coalition of the willing” over Ukraine war and proposed European-led patrols of the Arabian Gulf should a ceasefire come into full effect.
“When it comes to the wider conflicts, what you were doing again with France when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz coalition – 40 countries working together in the spirit of the open seas and open sea lanes. I really want to thank you for all of that. It is really crucial.”
Destroyers ditched
The biggest decision will be the cancellation of the navy's Type 83 destroyer, that was to replace Britain’s ageing fleet of six Type 45 air-defence destroyers.
Instead, six Common Combat Vessels (CCVs), smaller, cheaper ships designed to act as command hubs for fleets of autonomous aircraft, surface vessels and underwater drones will be built.
Defence chiefs argue that the new concept reflects the realities of modern warfare, where big numbers and autonomy matter more than a handful of highly sophisticated but expensive and potentially vulnerable capital ships.
The UK Ministry of Defence said the CCVs will provide air defence by controlling networks of uncrewed systems rather than relying solely on traditional missile destroyers, extending naval reach “without a proportional increase in crew or cost.”
But the decision represents a major shift in Britain's naval doctrine after the Royal Navy has been structured around the high-end Type 45 air defence destroyers escorting its aircraft carriers to project global power.
The move towards a “hybrid Navy”, championed by First Sea Lord Gen Gwyn Jenkins, envisages a major leap towards smaller crewed ships operating alongside drones.
Mass and lethality
Defence analysts at the Royal United Services Institute have consistently argued that autonomous systems and “affordable mass” are now essential due to the cost and vulnerability of “exquisite platforms”, such as the Type 45.
This was also brutally exposed at the start of the Iran war when it took almost two weeks for Britain to get a destroyer deployed to the Mediterranean.
However, there is a counter argument that the autonomous systems will be no substitute for high-end destroyers leaving a capability gap just as missile threats are proliferating.
With interceptors proving crucial in defending Gulf states during the Iran war, a key focus will be on Britain's limited high-end air defence as currently the Type 45s are the only capable systems of defending the country. There is no equivalent land-based long-range air and missile defence system, leaving the UK exposed to the missile threats seen in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The disappearance of the Type 83 project also raises questions over Britain’s ability to project power in its “East of Suez” posture that was announced as the “Pacific Tilt” under the previous Conservative government.
With the ice caps melting the emphasis now appears to be shifting to the High North, especially with the growing Russian submarine threat. Alongside the naval announcements, the Defence Investment Plan will commit £500 million to modernising the Royal Marines, reinforcing the growing focus on the Arctic, areas where the commandos are specialists.
The funding will include new high-speed insertion craft, additional strike drones and equipment designed for dispersed operations across Norway and the Arctic coastline, where Nato planners increasingly expect confrontation with Russia.
The marines are being reshaped as a specialist raiding force capable of striking quickly from the sea, operating alongside many drones.
Burnham procurement
The procurement decisions also come amid growing political pressure to ensure defence spending delivers greater benefits to British industry and the suggestion that the Defence Investment Plan has been seen and approved by Andy Burnham, who is expected to become prime minister next month.
At his major speech on the economy on Monday, Mr Burnham pledged to “reform public procurement to prioritise British jobs and industry”, arguing taxpayers should see stronger industrial returns from rising defence budgets.
That is a change from a decades long approach competition and value for money over domestic manufacturing but will give fresh opportunities to British shipyards and drone manufacturers.
Former chief of the defence staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin has argued the next prime minister should govern “almost like a wartime prime minister” but also that the current plans could fall short of the deteriorating international security demands.
Ultimately choosing drones over destroyers and Arctic security over a global presence, signals that Britain is quietly scaling back its global ambitions.
