The UK government is expected to imminently announce its major defence spending plan, which will cover equipment purchases for the next decade.
The long-awaited defence investment plan (DIP) is expected to contain an £18 billion increase in spending as Prime Minister Keir Starmer seeks a legacy for his beleaguered premiership.
Mr Starmer insisted on Monday that he would not set out a timetable to leave No 10 as leadership rival Andy Burnham vowed to “change Labour” if he is successful in his effort to return to parliament.
Defence experts have told The National that the DIP is unlikely to contain the radical defence spending to purchase the modern equipment – such as drone swarms and missile interceptors – that Britain’s armed forces desperately need.
“Our capability basket at the moment is pretty threadbare,” said defence specialist Francis Tusa. “To start with, there is no air defence in the UK.”
The government has described the DIP as a plan for the “10-year transformation of Britain’s defence” under which spending will rise to 2.5 per cent and then 3 per cent of GDP.
But the DIP has been delayed for almost a year after Downing Street was given the Ministry of Defence’s wishlist for equipment, which required cuts to programmes leading to job losses in Labour areas.
The government has come under pressure from all sides to publish the plan, but delayed, in part due to Treasury concerns over costs. Now it is understood that Mr Starmer, under pressure to show some decisive leadership and secure his legacy, is pushing it through.
“We're working to finalise the plan, and it will be published as soon as possible,” the Prime Minister’s official spokesman told The National. “It will put the best equipment and technology into the hands of our forces, while investing in growing the UK economy,” he added.
Political defence
But the delays have meant no major defence programme announcements since Labour came to power almost two years ago, after it ordered a strategic defence review to set out what was required in the DIP.
“The delay has caused a logjam in any future defence procurement and modernisation,” said Tim Ripley, editor of the Defence Eye publication. “The longer it goes on, the less modern equipment the British armed forces will have and the more useless, old equipment they keep.”
A defence source added that the plan presented to the Prime Minister last year had difficult cuts “because defence modernisation results in winners and losers” and that there were “political implications that the PM didn't want to take at the time”.
As a result, the DIP was unlikely to contain many cuts, as these would likely come in areas with strong Labour support in the north and Wales, such as the factories building the beleaguered Ajax armoured vehicle, jet fighters and submarines.
Drone swarms wanted
But as the wars in Ukraine and Iran have demonstrated, the ability of massed drone swarms to cause damage is hugely significant. Britain still does not appear to be adapting to this, unlike France, Sweden and others.
More importantly, experts argue, much greater investment is needed in the Tempest Global Combat Aircraft Programme (GCAP) to ensure the sixth-generation fighter has the ability to act as a mother ship to drone swarms. “It's intrinsic to its capability that it has the weapons and the drones that go with it, rather than just buying a shiny new aeroplane,” said Mr Ripley.
Furthermore, the delay in the DIP, said Mr Tusa, had meant up to 20 small and medium businesses either going bust or moving their factories to Eastern Europe.
There are also fears that, given the financial pressures, Britain might pull out of the Aukus project to build submarines for Australia with the assistance of the US. “If the UK pulls out then its reputation will be destroyed in Asia,” said Mr Tusa.
“The DIP needs to contain provision for buying drone swarms, artillery and air defence. If it doesn't, then its armed forces will fall further behind,” he added.
Starmer staying on
Mr Starmer said he still wants to lead Labour into the next general election amid calls from within the party to set out a timetable for his exit.
Mr Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, hopes to be Labour’s candidate in the Makerfield by-election, which could provide him with a route back to the Commons to challenge for the party leadership and the keys to Downing Street.
Asked if he would fight a leadership contest if a rival had the 81 MPs needed to launch a challenge, Mr Starmer said: “We’re not at that position … but I’ve said, I don’t know how many times, that I’m not going to walk away.”
Mr Burnham said Labour’s offer to voters had “simply not been good enough”. In a speech at a northern investment summit in Leeds, he said: “I’m clear about what I am offering. If I get to stand, a vote for me will be a vote to change Labour, because Labour needs to change if we are to regain people’s trust.
“It will be a vote to make life more affordable again, a vote to power up places, a vote to reindustrialise.”
Brexit is likely to be a major issue in any Labour leadership contest after former health secretary Wes Streeting, who will attempt to join any battle to replace Mr Starmer, set out his desire to eventually rejoin the EU. Mr Starmer said he did not want to get “lost in a debate about what may happen years down the line” with the EU.
Mr Burnham has previously said he wants to see the UK back in the EU within his lifetime, but on Monday he insisted he did not want to re-run the arguments of Brexit, although he said leaving the EU had been “damaging”.
He said it was more important to “focus on what we’ve got in common” before the by-election battle in the Leave-voting Makerfield seat.
He said: “My view is that Brexit has been damaging, but I also believe the last thing we should do right now is re-run those arguments. Britain will be stuck in a permanent rut if we’re just constantly arguing and people are pulling away from each other.
