The shipping industry has welcomed the establishment of Strait of Hormuz evacuation corridors but warn internationally recognised channels remain the most viable route for trade.
The evacuation plan announced by Oman yesterday proposes two new corridors for crossing the channel: a northern route along the Iranian coast, and the southern route flanking Oman.
About 11,000 seafarers who remain stranded in the Gulf are expected to use these routes to return home.
This temporarily replaces the internationally recognised corridor through the strait, established as a traffic separation scheme in 1968, which is now deemed too dangerous to cross due to the risk of sea mines.
The TSS was chosen as the safest route for large ships because of its depth, and sailors will expect to go back to it, according to Capt Andrew Cook, secretary general of the International Federation of Shipmasters' Associations.
“The co-ordinates of the TSS are not political co-ordinates, they are there for safety of navigation. The TSS was put in place where the water is deep enough for the bigger ships to get through,” he said.
Earlier US reports have suggested it could take six months to clear the strait of reported mines, and that this can only be done once the threat of war is cleared.
Risk of attack
Ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz under the new evacuation framework still face a “residual risk” of Iranian attack, as it seeks to impose a toll system on the strip.
Insiders believe that shipping companies whose governments are friendly to Iran will be able to cross that northern route – but that the majority will proceed along the coast of Oman.
But Iran’s aim to have ships pay to cross the strait means it still has incentives to block the alternatives.
“There is a residual risk that because Iran wants you to pay them to use their route, Iran could attack shipping using this southern route,” said Capt Chris O’Flaherty, a naval mines expert from the Nautical Institute.
“If you’ve co-ordinated to go through the Iranian route, then you’ve co-ordinated with Iran. There is a very high probability Iran is going to leave you alone,” he told The National.
Whether or not decides to prevent ships from crossing the southern route will be a "huge test of international politics and diplomacy".
“That is why the navigation area [notice to seafarers] makes it crystal clear that it's up to every ship and every master to do their own risk assessment before they transit,” he said.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ navy - which is seperate from Iran's conventional navy - has already begun pushing back against the southern corridor, warning on Thursday that ships would need to continue co-ordinating with the force to pass through the waterway. “Safe passage is only possible via routes announced by the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the statement carried by the Tasnim state news agency said.
A representative of the IMO said the “evacuation is being implemented as planned” and that the guidance on its website has not changed, in response to the IRGC statement.
Two ships operated by the shipping giant Maersk sailed through the strait overnight on Wednesday, the company said. The Maersk Baltimore and a vessel time-chartered to Maersk exited the Arabian Gulf in the early hours of Thursday morning.
The transits were completed in “close co-ordination with our security partners and followed thorough security assessments”, with no issues reported, Maersk said.
Fundamental changes
There are concerns that the corridor in and out of the strait has been fundamentally changed by the conflict - with Iran emboldened by the knowledge that it can blockade the corridor again in the future.
While the Omani-issued notice to ships states that no tolls will be imposed for the duration of the evacuation, Iran is expected to proceed with its plans to charge ships for crossing the strait once that phase is complete.
The routes outlined by Oman are likely to be based on the emergency corridors that emerged in April in response to the crisis.
To reduce the risk of mines, the Omani route was likely to follow a road paved by the US navy’s silent convoys, that has escorted dozens of ships out of the strait since April. “Every ship is a mine sweeper once. Every single time a ship safely transits along that track, then realistically you are proving that there are no mines there,” Capt O’Flaherty said.
“The Omanis will most definitely have coordinated with those partners, if the US have had multiple ships going along a set track."
The route flanking Oman could turn it to a “single track country lane”, requiring ships to request slot transits that resemble those in the Suez Canal.
“There will be a single-track country lane and the Omanis have said we're quite happy to coordinate traffic along it. Very soon I think you'll probably shift to a model where you ask I have a slot transit?” he said.
“I've been through the Suez Canal quite a few times, and as soon as you know when you want to transit, you then contact the Egyptian Suez Canal Authority, and you literally book your slot. The more notice you give them, the higher your probability of getting your day of choice."
