The coming Makerfield by-election could prove to be one of the “most highly consequential” in British political history, experts have told The National, with the possibility that the surge of the hard-right Reform UK party could be checked and a prime minister unseated.
In the hands of the 80,000 or so voters in the seat near Manchester lies the fate of Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the man who wants to dethrone him, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham. Britain’s enduring two-party system and the ascension of Nigel Farage’s Reform party could also be affected by the poll.
It is an “epic test” for Mr Burnham to take the seat, said Prof Tony Travers, a political commentator at the London School of Economics. It was vacated on Thursday by MP Josh Simons, to enable Mr Burnham to march south on Downing Street.
Labour’s chances of holding Makerfield hover above “50-50”, largely because in last week’s local elections Reform swept the board in England, winning a little more than 50 per cent of the vote. Mr Starmer's Labour party took 22 per cent.
“They got more than double the Labour vote, so it's a steep hill for Burnham to climb and an epic test, because if he can win this by-election, it would suggest he is able to convert Reform voters back to Labour,” Prof Travers said.
The first step will be for Mr Burnham to secure the nomination from the Labour National Executive Committee, which is not a foregone conclusion given they excluded him from running in a February by-election, likely on the orders of Mr Starmer.
But this time the Prime Minister has signalled his support. That was further reinforced on Friday when former health secretary Wes Streeting, who quit the cabinet on Thursday, posted on social media that “we need our best players on the pitch”. Then, in what might be a push for a place on a future cabinet, he added: “There is no doubt that Andy Burnham is one of them."
Any Labour candidate other than Mr Burnham would probably struggle in the battle. With his popular touch and legacy as Manchester's Mayor, he stands the best chance to claim victory in Makerfield.
“There’s jeopardy in this and it's a big test of Burnham’s popularity, but he's also using an election to say to the people of Makerfield, it's a referendum on Keir Starmer's future,” Prof Travers added.
The election will also point to whether Britain really wants radical change or it is willing to stick with the conventional two-party system, something that would benefit the ailing Conservative Party.
Mr Simons won the seat comfortably with a 5,399 majority at the 2024 general election, with Reform in second place, but a lot has changed since then. Labour to date has been unable to convince Britons that it is the party to change their economic fortunes.
That is why Prof Travers described the vote as “too close to call”, but “probably slightly better than 50-50" for Labour. “Burnham’s a big enough name and the contest is big enough to potentially convince some Labour voters back,” he said.
By another quirk, the by-election could persuade the potential future prime minister that moving Labour further to the left, as advocated by other senior figures, would spell electoral disaster.
The constituency is 97 per cent white and one per cent Muslim. It has working and middle-class households of whom 65 per cent voted for Brexit. To win them over, Mr Burnham may well choose to curtail his pro-Europe and immigration-friendly positions.
The vote could also inspire more constituents to turn out than did so during the general election, when just 52 per cent voted.
Reform has pledged to pour all of its resources into the fight, raising the stakes and making a defeat more troubling for the party, especially at a time when Mr Farage is under investigation by parliament over an undeclared £5 million ($6.6 million) gift he received before entering the Commons. He denies any wrongdoing.
Victory for Labour might mean the right leader “can defuse the Reform threat”, said Prof Travers. But even then, a new prime minister will have three years before facing a general election – enough time to either resolve Britain's economic and social problems, or perhaps become as unpopular as Mr Starmer in what is now a most unforgiving position.
