Iranian opposition groups in exile are hopeful they can soon return to their country as a result of US and Israeli air strikes, but they are urging European leaders to plan for the aftermath.
Many of the dissidents are based in the UK and some have urged the British government to support a democratic transition in Iran if the regime cracks under military pressure.
While Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the Britain would not join the US and Israeli attacks on the regime, the American military can use its airbases to go after Iran-launched retaliatory attacks in the Gulf.
Political activist Razgar Alani, the UK representative of the Democratic People’s Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), hopes British expertise could support reform in the event of a regime change.
“The UK did not participate in the attacks on the regime but its soft power can help Iranians to devise a new constitution based on federalism and devolution that can make Iran a fair and voluntary union,” Mr Alani wrote in a letter to MPs.
“We ask the British government to assemble external experts to advise the Kurds and others how to proceed on this. We ask the British government to discuss these issues with us,” he said.
The Iranian opposition faces immense challenges, with its disparate leaders either in exile or in prison. Although the most prominent figure to have emerged is the US-based Reza Pahlavi, son of the Iran’s deposed shah, there are concerns that his family’s legacy and Persian nationalism could divide the country.
A conference planned at the end of the month in London by the newly formed Congress for Freedom in Iran will seek to unify these groups and agree a common agenda.
Other coalitions have also gained momentum in recent weeks, including the Broad Solidarity for Freedom and Equality in Iran, which includes minorities and Iranian political groups. Kurdish and Ahwaz Arab groups have also formed ethnic coalitions, setting aside their political differences.
But analysts said the Iranian regime is likely to adapt to the demands for reform and inclusion as it seeks to nominate a new supreme leader. The building of the Assembly of Experts, the body tasked with the nomination, was targeted on Tuesday as they were due to meet, according to the Iranian state news agency, but the impact of the strike is not yet known.
A new leadership in Iran is likely to give more space to a “grass roots” opposition, whose leaders are in prison, said Roxane Farmanfarmaian, director of international studies and politics at the University of Cambridge.
“Now that Khamenei is gone and a change does need to take place, I wouldn't be surprised if there is more space given to some of these more grass roots leaders,” Ms Farmanfarmaian said, speaking at the European Leadership Network.
“There are several opposition leaders that have been imprisoned over the last couple of years, and they don't have organised opposition groups behind them. That has been a strategy of this government is to ensure that there aren't organised opposition networks in place,” she said.
“Those that are being promoted on the outside have little traction on the inside,” she said.
The exiled Balochistan People’s Party, which also has a base in the UK, called for “social unity” on Monday in the face of uncertainty.
“Social unity must be regarded as the foremost strategic asset in times of instability,” the party said in a statement. “Strengthening local mutual aid networks, fostering reciprocal support among families and civil institutions, and preserving social cohesion play a decisive role in enhancing societal resilience against external pressures.”
The party is among those calling for federalism in Iran that could support the cultural rights of minority groups in the country. It also called on its followers to remember these “fundamental demands” and their alignment with other opposition groups.
“Empathetic solidarity among the peoples of Iran, particularly among those historically subjected to discrimination over the past century, including the Baloch, Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen, Lurs, Turks, and others … is a decisive necessity for a post-Islamic Republic Iran,” the statement said.
