Keir Starmer’s position as Britain’s Prime Minister is at its most precarious, undermined by the unfolding scandal over his appointment of Peter Mandelson as Washington ambassador despite his links to the paedophile US financier Jeffrey Epstein.
Morgan McSweeney, Mr Starmer’s chief of staff, resigned on Sunday, taking “full responsibility” for the appointment Mr Mandelson as Washington envoy.
“When asked, I advised the Prime Minister to make that appointment and I take full responsibility for that advice,” Mr McSweeney said in a statement. “In public life, responsibility must be owned when it matters most, not just when it is most convenient.”
The Labour leader painted himself as a man on a mission to restore straightforward, credible politics yet he regularly makes poor decisions and courts ethical controversies. Mr Mandelson, a fixture in the Labour Party since the 1980s, is the focus of a police investigation following the US release of files owned by Epstein.
Before the Mandelson revelations – and more are likely to follow – Mr Starmer’s leadership was under pressure following a series of U-turns and errors of judgment.
Mr McSweeney's resignation amplifies calls for a leadership challenge so that the party that won a landslide in July 2024 can reboot its government. While possible contenders are keeping a low profile, Westminster is full of chatter that they are ready to quickly move if Mr Starmer's leadership is fatally damaged.
While his position is “weak and perilous”, said London School of Economics political analyst Prof Tony Travers. “His last remaining half-good card is that there’s no obvious alternative who would suddenly change everything”.
Historically, the Labour Party has found it much more difficult to oust leaders than the Conservatives. Indeed, it has never used party mechanisms to depose a serving prime minister.
The challenge facing the Labour Party, said Prof Travers, is that any replacement will know that the “magic money tree has been shaken and there's no more cash” and the British economy is flat.
Fresh face
He singled out Health Secretary Wes Streeting as being in the “least worst position”, as a confident media performer but with only a “wafer thin” majority in Ilford North, his parliamentary constituency.
Mr Streeting is not alone in the field, with perhaps five or more politicians with a serious claim to pitch in a Labour leadership contest. The first hurdle is winning 80 nominations from the 403 Labour MPs. High-profile Starmer rival and Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham cannot run as he is not an MP.
Will these politicians enter the running?
Angela Rayner
One of Labour’s most recognisable figures would have been a “shoo-in” as replacement, if it had not been for a lapse in judgment in underpaying a property tax by up to £40,000.
While she awaits final settlement of the matter with tax officials, Ms Rayner has been quietly courting Labour MPs. She has a reported £1 million war chest for campaigning.
The 45-year-old appeals to MPs and Labour members with her working-class roots and strong left-wing credentials, growing up on a council estate then leaving school at 16 after she become pregnant.
Her political identity was shaped by her career as a care worker whose organisational talents were recognised when she became a trade union representative and advocate for deprived communities.
Ms Rayner’s qualities were quickly recognised, after she entered parliament in 2015, with shadow cabinet roles under the hard-left Jeremy Corbyn opposition then the more centrist Starmer leadership.
With her charisma, intelligence and strong character she won the contest to become Labour’s deputy leader, a powerful position that she held along with that of Local Government Secretary.
Any leadership vote will go to the Labour membership. Contenders need 10 per cent of MPs, about 40, to go forward and Ms Rayner’s soft-left wing and grass roots appeal will make her a front-runner. That is if she can resolve her tax issues.
Wes Streeting
Popular across much of the party and a highly savvy media operator, Mr Streeting has, especially since Ms Rayner’s resignation, been a leading light in the succession saga.
But he is also said to have been close to Peter Mandelson, who he now completely disowns. The publishing of correspondence will show whether he had any influence in his appointment as US ambassador.
That aside, Mr Streeting is a leading figure among Labour’s moderates who has established himself as a strong communicator, willing to shoulder tough media interviews.
He, too, comes from working-class roots. He rose from an upbringing in Stepney, East London, to reading history at Cambridge University.
Mr Streeting’s abilities were recognised by Mr Starmer appointing him to the key post of health, where he has worked with some success in rejuvenating an NHS that was battered by Covid.
His strong background in the charity sector gives him, like Ms Rayner, the ability to speak with credibility on inequality and poverty, two key issues for Labour members.
With his pragmatism, appeal to the centre-left and disciplined media skills, Streeting will be a credible leadership candidate. That is if he keeps above the toxic Mandelson fallout.
Shabana Mahmood
There is an inner resilience and contained steeliness about Shabana Mahmood as she goes about her business as Home Secretary.
The first Muslim woman to hold the post, she has demonstrated a willingness to shift to the right by coming down hard on Britain’s swelling numbers of illegal immigrants.
Within days of winning her seat in 2024, against a fervent pro-Gaza activist in Birmingham, she was, as Lord Chancellor, dressed in wig and robes assisting King Charles III during the state opening of parliament.
Born in Birmingham in 1980 to parents from Pakistan, she spent part of her childhood in Saudi Arabia before returning to Britain to read law at Oxford University.
Being in government reveals those who can and those who cannot perform. Ms Mahmood’s sharp legal mind and effective communication skills helped her to rapidly tackle prison overcrowding and reform sentencing rules, putting her in the former category.
That did not go unnoticed in Downing Street and following the first major Starmer ruction after Ms Rayner’s resignation last September, Ms Mahmood was made Home Secretary.
Ed Miliband
Ed Miliband has great credibility among the left-wing members of the Labour Party.
He has also served effectively in government. When he entered Parliament in 2005 his intellectual skills were recognised and three years later became the first energy and climate change secretary.
In this role, he crafted the Climate Change Act, which set legally binding emissions targets.
He has a ruthless streak, willing to take on his brother David Miliband in the 2010 Labour leadership contest and win.
With the party in some disarray following its defeat in that year’s election, he marshalled discipline to keep its many factions in line. He ran in the 2015 general election, only to lose out to the Conservatives' David Cameron.
Time spent out of the political limelight, some of it on a popular current affairs podcast, seemed to work well for him and he returned to politics.
Since then, Mr Miliband, 56, has managed the Energy Security and Net Zero portfolio with doggedness in a world upturned by the shifting plates of geopolitics.
His profile as someone who is well respected and can drive through well thought-out ideas could set him apart as the person to lift Britain out of his economic quagmire.
Peter Kyle
One of the long-shots in a race would be Peter Kyle, who has quietly displayed his competence and appeal to Labour factions, and has been promoted from the Science portfolio to the senior post of Business Secretary.
In a varied earlier career, Mr Kyle, 56, was an aid worker in Eastern Europe before becoming a government policy adviser and then an MP in 2015.
He does not possess the high media profile of the other four contenders, but he is well known for attention to detail, while building coalitions and consensus across government.
His subtly effective style has brought respect from colleagues, making him a potential unifying candidate. But it is unclear whether this would have “cut-through” with the broader Labour electorate.
