Migrants will continue to die in greater numbers in overcrowded boats in the English Channel as people smugglers make up for a lack of vessels, a leading expert has told The National.
According to Tony Smith, the former head of the UK’s Border Force and now a border security consultant, success in reducing the supply of boats has resulted in the traffickers cramming ever more numbers of migrants on to the flimsy boats.
Recent weeks have seen asylum seekers die after vessels capsized soon after setting out from northern France.
In the latest incident, a migrant believed to be a Syrian woman, suffocated on a boat packed with 75 asylum seekers that got into difficulty while trying to cross from northern France to the UK.
The French maritime authority Premar said the death was a “new phenomenon of people dying at sea not by drowning (but) by illness or in a crush”.
Mr Smith, the managing director of Fortinus Global, told The National the supply of the vessels reduced as a result of co-operation between law enforcement agencies across Europe.
“The work done on stopping the supply of dinghies means we’re seeing more overcrowded vessels than before,” said Mr Smith.
He explained that the examination of the boats when they arrive in Britain allows investigators to determine where the various components originate.
These parts are transported across Europe through the Balkans from Turkey before being assembled on the beaches of northern France.
The UK has sought the help of countries en route who have been intercepting items suspected of being used to build migrant boats, said Mr Smith, who is also chairman of the International Border Management and Technologies Association.
I think there’s going to be more deaths and I think it’s only going to get worse before it gets better
Tony Smith
He said that gangs of “Albanians and Kurds are all fighting one and other for the spaces and when one does get afloat they’re overloading them, which is why you’re seeing 70 or 80 on board and that’s very, very dangerous”.
“I think there’s going to be more deaths and I think it’s only going to get worse before it gets better,” he said.
“The demand for crossings is going to rise unless we can show to the migrants that we’re removing people.”
Premar said about 75 people were on board the vessel intercepted about 4.30am UK time on Sunday of whom 35 were rescued.
One person was found “unconscious” and was taken to a hospital in Boulogne-sur-Mer in a helicopter but she died later.
The maritime authority said that “given the risks of falling overboard or injury incurred by people in the event of forced intervention, the choice was made to let them continue their journey”.
Twelve migrant deaths were recorded in the Channel in 2023 but the toll has already reached 23 deaths for 2024, according to the maritime authority.
About 255 migrants were detected crossing the English Channel to the UK on Sunday, taking the cumulative number of arrivals so far in 2024 to 16,457, a record for the first seven months of a calendar year, according to provisional figures from the Home Office.
The new Labour government has promised to set up a Border Security Command, led by a former police, military or intelligence chief to tackle small boats, after it abandoned the policy of sending migrants to Rwanda in a bid to deter them from making the crossing.
A Border Force boat recently took migrants rescued in the Channel back to France for the first time, which has been seen as a sign of improving co-operation between the two nations over small boats.
As part of an agreement with the UK, the French police have been taking action against migrants in a bid to stop them crossing the channel but there have been claims this has forced asylum seekers to make more risky journeys.
On Monday, dozens of migrants were seen wading into the water at Gravelines in northern France and pulling themselves on to the crowded boat.
A volunteer for the French migrant charity Utopia 56, who asked not to be named, said they believe it is more dangerous now as the police have clamped down on the border.
“More and more people are coming in one boat because there is less chance for them to try,” they said.
“So there are more people now in one boat than before, there is more risk and things like yesterday.”
Four men died on an overcrowded boat trying to reach Britain on July 12, an Eritrean woman on July 17 and another man two days later.
Alarm Phone, an organisation which passes on the details of migrant distress calls to rescuers, said in these incidents up to 86 people were on the boats.
It said police action has “reduced the number of dinghies arriving to the beaches and which is creating chaos during launches” and this has led to “more dinghies are departing from France underinflated and overcrowded”.
Imran Hussain, executive director of External Affairs at the Refugee Council, said political action was needed to prevent deaths, such as the one at the weekend.
“Our new Government must urgently expand safe routes if it is serious about wanting to prevent tragedies in the Channel like this one,” he told The National.
“The people making these terrifying journeys on flimsy, overcrowded vessels are men, women and children who have fled oppression in countries such as Afghanistan, Syria and Iran and simply want to be safe.
“It is only by giving refugees fleeing war, persecution and violence a safe way to come to the UK that they will stop being forced into the arms of smuggling gangs in desperation.”
if you go
The flights
Flydubai flies to Podgorica or nearby Tivat via Sarajevo from Dh2,155 return including taxes. Turkish Airlines flies from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Podgorica via Istanbul; alternatively, fly with Flydubai from Dubai to Belgrade and take a short flight with Montenegro Air to Podgorica. Etihad flies from Abu Dhabi to Podgorica via Belgrade. Flights cost from about Dh3,000 return including taxes. There are buses from Podgorica to Plav.
The tour
While you can apply for a permit for the route yourself, it’s best to travel with an agency that will arrange it for you. These include Zbulo in Albania (www.zbulo.org) or Zalaz in Montenegro (www.zalaz.me).
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'My Son'
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Starring: James McAvoy, Claire Foy, Tom Cullen, Gary Lewis
Rating: 2/5
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
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Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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The specs
Engine: 2-litre 4-cylinder and 3.6-litre 6-cylinder
Power: 220 and 280 horsepower
Torque: 350 and 360Nm
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Price: from Dh136,521 VAT and Dh166,464 VAT
On sale: now
TOURNAMENT INFO
Fixtures
Sunday January 5 - Oman v UAE
Monday January 6 - UAE v Namibia
Wednesday January 8 - Oman v Namibia
Thursday January 9 - Oman v UAE
Saturday January 11 - UAE v Namibia
Sunday January 12 – Oman v Namibia
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Mohammed Usman, CP Rizwan, Waheed Ahmed, Zawar Farid, Darius D’Silva, Karthik Meiyappan, Jonathan Figy, Vriitya Aravind, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Basil Hameed, Chirag Suri
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets