A British candidate to be the next head of Interpol has warned of a “fusion of terrorism and criminality” as extremists turn to underworld tactics to raise funds.
Speaking to an audience including Middle East diplomats in London, Stephen Kavanagh said terrorists are using encryption and corruption to aid their activities as part of a “new era” of cross-border crime.
Mr Kavanagh said Al Shabab militants in Somalia raise about $100 million a year through extortion of local taxes and tolls – almost half as much as the Somali government makes.
He said the “sophisticated and entrepreneurial fusion” of terrorism and crime is “made more dangerous by the ability of terror and criminal groups to use encryption” to hide their activities and launder money.
Asked by The National how he would tackle these threats, the former London counter-terrorism commander said Interpol could be given access to more biometric data.
He said police should prepare for far-right threats and consider whether climate change could lead to extremism.
“I do not want to see local burglars or graffiti artists put on Interpol biometric systems, but we need to understand this is to be used for the most serious criminality,” Mr Kavanagh said.
“What we have to be able to try and do, with counter-terrorism as much as anything else, is to start predicting and looking for those areas where Interpol is unique, and biometric sharing is one of those.”
Interpol will choose its new secretary general this year, replacing Germany's Jurgen Stock.
Mr Kavanagh is one of four candidates for the job, along with Zambia's Mubita Nawa, Pakistan's Faisal Shahkar and Brazil's Valdecy Urquiza.
The head of the 196-country agency oversees its global police databases, specialist investigative teams and its red notices for wanted fugitives.
However, Interpol's budget is fairly small and it has no powers to make arrests or issue red notices unless requested by an individual country.
In his pitch at Britain's Royal United Services Institute, Mr Kavanagh appealed for a new “global mindset” in tackling crime.
He said “ageing law enforcement models” mean police chiefs focus on reacting to events and receive no credit for preventing crime off their patch.
“The international community can no longer view policing as a mainly domestic, reactive, blue-light service,” he said.
“A global crime epidemic needs to be met with a proportionate global response. If we can adopt a global mindset for disease, climate change and extreme poverty, I believe we can do that for this new era of crime.”
Mr Kavanagh, currently Interpol's executive director of police services, assured diplomats the agency is not seeking “control” but wants to see countries “connecting, communicating and co-ordinating”.
Describing Interpol's budget as smaller than that of Essex Police, the force he used to run in the east of England, he called for the “ethical” involvement of the private sector and its own investigative technology.
He said Interpol must remain neutral at a time when conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine and Africa are “polarising opinion” and threatening global co-operation.
Africa is particularly vulnerable to modern criminal tactics with as many as 90 per cent of companies facing cyber security threats, he warned.
He said the terrorist threat in Somalia means there are prisoners who will at some point be released and need assessing for any continued threat. Al Qaeda-linked Al Shabab has controlled parts of Somalia for years, fought its internationally recognised government and allied with pirates on Africa's coast.
Around the world Interpol could also help share experience in deradicalisation and understand emerging terrorist threats, Mr Kavanagh said.
“We're seeing the extreme violent right manifesting across the world into different forms. We have to be ready to understand whether or not the next step around violent extremism will be climate, environment.”
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Like a Fading Shadow
Antonio Muñoz Molina
Translated from the Spanish by Camilo A. Ramirez
Tuskar Rock Press (pp. 310)
VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
'Shakuntala Devi'
Starring: Vidya Balan, Sanya Malhotra
Director: Anu Menon
Rating: Three out of five stars
MATCH INFO
UAE Division 1
Abu Dhabi Harlequins 12-24 Abu Dhabi Saracens
Sly%20Cooper%20and%20the%20Thievius%20Raccoonus
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sucker%20Punch%20Productions%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sony%20Computer%20Entertainment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PlayStation%202%20to%205%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
Read more from Johann Chacko
Countries offering golden visas
UK
Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.
Germany
Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.
Italy
The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.
Switzerland
Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.
Canada
Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence.
