Brazil is ramping up the pressure at Cop30 as the UN climate talks reach their endgame.
The presidency set a deadline for countries at the Belem summit to finalise “a significant part” of the negotiations by Tuesday evening for approval the following day.
As ministers try to thrash out a final deal, countries remain divided at the talks, which are taking place on the edge of the Amazon rainforest, on issues such as finance, adaptation, carbon markets and what are perceived as weak climate commitments.
It came as Pope Leo, in a message to religious dignitaries on the sidelines of the summit, called for a stronger response to tackling climate change and highlighted that the Paris Agreement, signed 10 years ago, remains the world's strongest tool for protecting people and the planet.
Under the agreement, countries pledged to limit global warming to well below 2ºC on pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5ºC, but Belem has so far failed to galvanise any kind of comparable consensus.
Why Cop30 matters
The summit is still of immense importance, experts in the UAE told The National, despite the myriad challenges this year. The US has skipped Cop30, and grinding wars in Gaza and Ukraine have taken the focus away from climate action.
“I think there is still significant engagement,” Moustafa Bayoumi, who leads the Centre for Climate Diplomacy at the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi, told The National. “There are a lot of leaders and ministers at Cop30. The Cop president even stated that the US absence has opened space for the world to see what developing countries are doing.”
At Cop30, China – a global pioneer in renewable energy – has taken a more prominent role, but Mr Bayoumi, a Cop veteran, said the country was “careful not to be seen as a leader” at the talks, as it is still classed as a developing country under the conference's framework.
“The real test is this second week, where the negotiations shift from a technical to a more political phase,” said Mr Bayoumi.
Grass roots event
While attendance at Belem might not match Cop28 in Dubai in 2023, another expert in the UAE who has just returned from Brazil said he felt Cop30 was a “pragmatic shift”.
“Cop30 felt like a more grass roots event,” Ivano Iannelli, chief sustainability officer of Dubai's Green Economy Partnership, told The National. “It was not the mega-event it had become and was more based on talks. It was more focused on the outcome rather than lobbying.”
Mr Iannelli pointed to vibrant discussions about deforestation, adaptation and the role of indigenous and vulnerable communities. “A lot of demonstrations took place and it was a chance for them to showcase their position.”
Still, the Brazilian presidency has its work cut out, with money again dominating negotiations. Cop29 in Azerbaijan ended with a deal for developed countries to provide $300 billion annually in climate finance to less developed nations. Many said this did not go far enough.
Vulnerable countries, including island states, are also highlighting the 1.5ºC goal signed at Paris, which seems to be ebbing away.
“Our coral reefs, the lifeblood of our islands’ food systems, culture and economies, are at a tipping point in dieback at 1.3°C and forest ecosystems are also at a tipping point,” Aosis, which represents the interests of the 39 small island and low-lying coastal developing states, said in a statement late on Monday.
“The window to protect lives and economies is closing and to delay further will mean certain disaster,” it said. It called for the tripling of adaptation finance to $120 billion by 2030. Adaptation is how countries deal with the impacts of climate change. “In the next few days, we have the opportunity to speak truth to power,” it said.
UAE to support climate action
The UAE may not hold the presidency but that doesn’t mean it is not involved in climate action. Its delegation in Belem aims to support Brazil’s presidency and build on achievements at Cop28.
In an interview with The National, Abdulla Balalaa, Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs for Energy and Sustainability, said water is an issue in need of more attention. The country's co-hosting of the UN Water Conference next year underlines this.
“The numbers are quite shocking: about 3.5 billion people around the world will experience no accessibility to water for at least one month every year by 2030,” he said.
This feeds in with what could be a crucial outcome from Belem – adaptation. Under the Paris deal countries agreed clear goals surrounding temperatures. But adaptation has been harder to quantify.
Now negotiators are trying to agree on a list of indicators – from water availability to food security – that would allow countries to assess if they are doing well.
“This might be one of the biggest outcomes,” said Mr Bayoumi. “If there is agreement on this, that would be a big win for Cop30.”
Brazil also wants to send a messaging on fossil fuels. Countries at Cop28 in the UAE agreed to “transition away” from fossil fuels but progress has stalled on this since the Dubai conference.
Who will host Cop31?
Cop32 is set to be hosted by Ethiopia, but the debate over next year still rages on. Australia and Turkey are vying to host Cop31 but there is still no sign of a compromise as a winner must be chosen by consensus.
If there is no deal then the Cop will be held in Germany. “It is very important that this is decided as they will only have a year to prepare,” said Mr Bayoumi. “If they don’t agree, they will both lose.”
