The rainstorms that struck the UAE and Oman last week were between 10 per cent and 40 per cent more intense due to climate change, a major research body has said.
The World Weather Attribution (WWA) research initiative found greenhouse gas emissions caused the storms to be far more destructive than they would have been in the pre-industrial era.
The El Nino climate pattern and global warming together meant the storms were particularly destructive.
Twenty people died in Oman and four were killed in the Emirates when a series of storms battered the Gulf nations. Dubai and Sharjah were struck by four waves of rainstorms, leaving large parts of the cities badly flooded.
If it had not been an El Nino year, it would have not have rained in this way. But at the same time, if it had not been for climate change, it would not have rained as heavily as it did
Friederike Otto,
Imperial College London and World Weather Attribution
“If it had not been an El Nino year, it would have not have rained in this way. But at the same time, if it had not been for climate change, it would not have rained as heavily as it did,” said Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London and a WWA researcher.
“Both were important factors for driving this event.”
A separate team of scientists in January found that by the middle of this century, annual rain in the UAE may rise by up to 30 per cent. More than 250 millimetres (10 inches) fell on Dubai over two days last week.
Despite modern infrastructure and an early-warning system, WWA said 80 per cent of people in Oman and 85 per cent of those in the UAE live on low-lying, flood-prone ground.
Speaking to The National, Dr Hylke Beck, assistant professor at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia, said the Gulf nations will need to prepare for a wetter future.
"The general consensus in the scientific community is that as the atmosphere warms up, it can hold about seven per cent more moisture for every degree Celsius that it warms," said Dr Beck, who co-authored the Climate Futures Report, a major analysis published last year that looked at the effects of climate change on the Arabian peninsula.
"That means when there’s more water available … this can lead to much heavier rainfall."
By the end of the century, the most severe rainfall event in the UAE in any given year is expected to be 10 to 15 per cent more intense than is the case now, according to climate models based on a "moderate" greenhouse gas emission scenario, Dr Beck said.
The Climate Futures Report also highlighted the risk that rising sea levels would contribute to increased coastal flooding and erosion, storm surges and saltwater contamination of groundwater.
Another notable rainfall event happened in 2016, when Dubai experienced more than 240mm of rainfall and suffered severe flooding.
Riyadh and Jeddah are among the other cities in the region that have been affected by deadly flash floods in recent decades.
Another scientist who researches climate change in the region, Prof Jos Lelieveld, of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Germany and The Cyprus Institute, said it was not possible to say that a single event, such as the recent extreme rainfall in the UAE, had happened because of climate change.
However, Prof Lelieveld said that while it may have taken place without climate change, it would have been less likely.
"You can say in general these types of events are likely to become more common because of climate change," he added.
Urbanisation trapping flood water
"You cannot make a specific prediction for Dubai, but in the Middle East, not so much in the summer but in the winter, spring and to some extent in the autumn, such events are more likely in the future."
The region is particularly vulnerable to severe flooding for a number of reasons, among them that most rainfall tends to be "short duration and very intense", Dr Beck said.
The soil in the region is often very hard and dry, so it does not absorb water easily, Dr Beck said, while there is little vegetation to slow run-off.
Also, there has been a massive increase in the scale of urban areas, so there is less bare ground to absorb rainwater. Population increases mean the risk that flooding will lead to casualties is greater.
The recent storm and the one in 2016, Dr Beck said, are the result of what it called a mesoscale convective system, which involves moist air from the Arabian Gulf converging in regions of low pressure.
The air then rises, expands and cools, causing the water vapour to condense and form clouds that result in significant rainfall.
Research has shown, Dr Beck said, that mesoscale convective systems have increased in duration over the UAE during the past two decades.
"Natural hazard early warning systems are very important to prepare and respond and reduce the damage and loss of life and in the case of floods these early-warning systems have proven to be super useful," he said.
"The drainage systems were really put to the test and they didn’t quite hold up – the airport was flooded, roads. This shows how important it is to beef up the flood defences, improve the stormwater infrastructure and the drainage systems."
Creating floodwater infrastructure, including lakes and drainage systems, that can cope with the most severe events is not easy, he acknowledged, given the "huge amounts" of water that appear in a short space of time.
Aside from actually creating the drainage systems, Dr Beck said maintenance was essential, as they easily become clogged up with sand if not cleared out regularly.
"It’s very hard to maintain these reservoirs, these infrastructure drainage systems, very costly," he said.
"We don’t know what’s going to happen with climate change. Perhaps they’re sufficient for current conditions but not for future conditions."
UAE flooding clean-up - in pictures
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'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
if you go
The flights
Fly direct to Kutaisi with Flydubai from Dh925 return, including taxes. The flight takes 3.5 hours. From there, Svaneti is a four-hour drive. The driving time from Tbilisi is eight hours.
The trip
The cost of the Svaneti trip is US$2,000 (Dh7,345) for 10 days, including food, guiding, accommodation and transfers from and to Tbilisi or Kutaisi. This summer the TCT is also offering a 5-day hike in Armenia for $1,200 (Dh4,407) per person. For further information, visit www.transcaucasiantrail.org/en/hike/
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
The Sky Is Pink
Director: Shonali Bose
Cast: Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Farhan Akhtar, Zaira Wasim, Rohit Saraf
Three stars
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 620bhp
Torque: 760Nm
Price: Dh898,000
On sale: now
World Series
Game 1: Red Sox 8, Dodgers 4
Game 2: Red Sox 4, Dodgers 2
Game 3: Saturday (UAE)
* if needed
Game 4: Sunday
Game 5: Monday
Game 6: Wednesday
Game 7: Thursday
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How to register as a donor
1) Organ donors can register on the Hayat app, run by the Ministry of Health and Prevention
2) There are about 11,000 patients in the country in need of organ transplants
3) People must be over 21. Emiratis and residents can register.
4) The campaign uses the hashtag #donate_hope
Tips for SMEs to cope
- Adapt your business model. Make changes that are future-proof to the new normal
- Make sure you have an online presence
- Open communication with suppliers, especially if they are international. Look for local suppliers to avoid delivery delays
- Open communication with customers to see how they are coping and be flexible about extending terms, etc
Courtesy: Craig Moore, founder and CEO of Beehive, which provides term finance and working capital finance to SMEs. Only SMEs that have been trading for two years are eligible for funding from Beehive.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Top Hundred overseas picks
London Spirit: Kieron Pollard, Riley Meredith
Welsh Fire: Adam Zampa, David Miller, Naseem Shah
Manchester Originals: Andre Russell, Wanindu Hasaranga, Sean Abbott
Northern Superchargers: Dwayne Bravo, Wahab Riaz
Oval Invincibles: Sunil Narine, Rilee Rossouw
Trent Rockets: Colin Munro
Birmingham Phoenix: Matthew Wade, Kane Richardson
Southern Brave: Quinton de Kock
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Favourite films: Casablanca and Lawrence of Arabia
Favourite books: Start with Why by Simon Sinek and Good to be Great by Jim Collins
Favourite dish: Grilled fish
Inspiration: Sheikh Zayed's visionary leadership taught me to embrace new challenges.
The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Trailblazer
Price, base / as tested Dh99,000 / Dh132,000
Engine 3.6L V6
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power 275hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 350Nm @ 3,700rpm
Fuel economy combined 12.2L / 100km
Profile of Tarabut Gateway
Founder: Abdulla Almoayed
Based: UAE
Founded: 2017
Number of employees: 35
Sector: FinTech
Raised: $13 million
Backers: Berlin-based venture capital company Target Global, Kingsway, CE Ventures, Entrée Capital, Zamil Investment Group, Global Ventures, Almoayed Technologies and Mad’a Investment.
Married Malala
Malala Yousafzai is enjoying married life, her father said.
The 24-year-old married Pakistan cricket executive Asser Malik last year in a small ceremony in the UK.
Ziauddin Yousafzai told The National his daughter was ‘very happy’ with her husband.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
Titanium Escrow profile
Started: December 2016
Founder: Ibrahim Kamalmaz
Based: UAE
Sector: Finance / legal
Size: 3 employees, pre-revenue
Stage: Early stage
Investors: Founder's friends and Family
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BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
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Engine: 4.0-litre, twin-turbocharged V8
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 630bhp
Torque: 900Nm
Price: Dh810,000
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less