Sudan's army has vowed to defeat the Rapid Support Forces by the end of 2026, but analysts say the goal is too ambitious given how deeply entrenched the paramilitary group is in the country's west.
Recent battlefield gains by the army in the northern part of the central Kordofan region have left the RSF reeling and disorganised, the analysts say, but they add that it remains a formidable force.
In a multi-pronged offensive late last month, soldiers of the Sudanese Armed Forces and allied militias captured the key city of Bara and several districts that straddle a strategic, 400-kilometre motorway to Khartoum.
Those gains eased pressure from the RSF on the nearby army-controlled city of Al Obeid, which has been partially besieged for months. The move also gave a logistical lifeline to the army in Kordofan and denied the RSF a route back to the capital it lost in 2024.
"Retaking the Al Sadarat highway has the potential to strengthen government logistics, relieve pressure on Al Obeid, and disrupt RSF movement between Darfur and central Sudan," Mariam Wahba and Angelo Schiciano of the Washington-based Foundation for Defence of Democracies wrote this week.
"However, the recent Sudanese Armed Forces' gains are unlikely to end the cycle of adaptation and attrition that has defined Sudan’s civil war."
With the conflict now in its fourth year, the RSF has near-total control of Darfur and parts of neighbouring Kordofan and Blue Nile State in the south.
Experts are convinced neither side can win the war on the battlefield. However, they say, one side could yet gain enough of an advantage to force major concessions at the negotiating table and help end the conflict.
But even that scenario appears ambitious, given the conflict is attracting increasing attention from neighbours with differing interests, including Ethiopia, Libya, Chad, Kenya and South Sudan, further complicating any future negotiations.
That interference, the experts warn, will only prolong a war that has killed tens of thousands of people, displaced about 14 million and created the world's largest humanitarian crisis, with millions facing hunger.
Retired Sudanese army brigadier Khaled Hassan painted a complicated picture of the battlefield, which leaves little prospect of either side emerging as a clear winner.
“The recent wins by the army in Kordofan hand it a level of initiative on the battlefield at this stage but don't mean that the Rapid Support Forces has lost its ability to respond or counter-attack,” he said.
“The most likely scenario now is the continuation of the fighting without either side gaining a commanding upper hand unless a dramatic change takes place in the balance of power between the two sides or the regional political climate regarding the conflict drastically changes.”
Since the outbreak of the war in April 2023, SAF leader Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan has used revenue from gold exports to bankroll the war effort, particularly the procurement of drones from abroad. Drones have featured prominently in recent battles between the army and the RSF.
Lately, the army-aligned government has also been trying to drive a wedge between the RSF and its main popular base, the western Arab tribes of Al Rezeiqat and Al Misiriyah, with a series of overtures to their leaders.
One of these overtures has been to focus on what it calls the “Dagalo gang” while absolving the two main tribes of responsibility for the rise of paramilitary forces or the ethnically motivated killing of non-Arab residents of Darfur during the war.
The Sudanese army stands accused of atrocities, including indiscriminate bombing and the use of chemical weapons. The RSF has also been placed under sanctions over alleged war crimes. Both sides' commanders are already under sanctions.
Gen Al Burhan has resisted mediation offers by regional and international powers and vowed to pursue war despite calls to end the conflict and reinstall civilian rule. Gen Mohamed Dagalo, on the other hand, appears to be more open to negotiations, although his stance is widely suspected to be motivated by a desire to gain legitimacy.
Meanwhile, Sudan's military leadership has been facing mounting scrutiny after announcing plans to integrate Islamist extremist militias once loyal to former president Omar Al Bashir's regime. Those militias, critics contend, have compensated the army for its manpower shortage but have an interest in prolonging the war until Islamists complete a political comeback after their ouster in a popular 2018-2019 uprising.
Al Shafie Ahmed reported from Kampala, Uganda.
