Iran has concentrated its firepower on Jordan’s military bases in a potential “shaping operation” to knock out air defences for a renewed assault on Israel, The National can disclose.
In the past week Iran has launched attacks with ballistic missiles and drones on three air-defence sites in Jordan, including bases hosting American forces.
Given Washington’s renewed attacks on Iran, the US military is understood to be the main target, but Tehran might also be aiming at air defences to give future ballistic missile and drone strikes against Israel a higher chance of success.
“The Jordanian military and intelligence assessments are that this is preparation for possible future strikes,” said political analyst Prof Zaid Eyadat, speaking from Amman. “Iran needs to deal with Jordan's bases because they will be the front line for defence and the targets were very specific in three defence zones, with two of them close to Israel.”
Defence coordination
Jordan sits directly on one of the most useful flight paths for Iranian strikes into Israel and has shot down large numbers of projectiles in the past two years as they overfly the country.
Fears that Iran might be conducting an air defence shaping operation – the military term for actions taken to make an offensive more likely to succeed – increased after Tehran struck two airbases on Tuesday.
It is understood that the Jordanians are now working closely with the Israeli military to co-ordinate their defences in case Iran launches an attack on Israel.
Prof Eyadat, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said “theories are on the table” in discussions suggesting it could be a shaping operation for a future attack. However, the view is that Iran will attack Israel only if it is struck first.
“The Israelis and Jordanians really are co-ordinating, taking this in concentration,” added the former political adviser to the king of Jordan. The country’s air defences in previous Iranian strikes had been “very effective to the extent that Israelis actually do think of Jordan as a partner”.
Massed drones
Former military intelligence officer Dr Lynette Nusbacher argued that she would be convinced it was a shaping operation if Iran planned to carry out mass drone attacks on Israel.
“The Iranians would expect that they can significantly degrade Jordanian and more importantly American capability to enable the Iranians to fly drones to Israel over Jordan in massive numbers,” she said.
Tehran’s reliance on drones was a result of its ballistic missiles being “sufficiently degraded that they haven't got the units to blast over to Israel”, and the regime was also reluctant to expose launch sites to the US.
She also disclosed that it was highly likely that the Iranians were getting precise targeting data from the Russians “to target particular parts of air bases”, including radars and air defences.
With Moscow unwilling to give targeting information for Israeli bases, the Iranians will want to suppress American and Jordanian air defence capabilities “because you're going to fly low-flying, slow-moving drones over Jordan to get to Israel”.
Tehran will be focusing on bases such as Muwaffaq Salti and Prince Hasan airbase, as they host the largest number of US aircraft and are only about 100km from the Israeli border and were among the targets on Tuesday.
Probing Iran
Military analyst Jonathan Hackett, a former US Marine, agreed Iran could be carrying out a shaping operation but said its military viability was questionable.
“Unless Iran has developed a swarming technique capable of overwhelming the layered integrated air defence systems the IRGC doesn’t currently have the capability to sustain such an attack without significant interception,” he said.
But Mr Hakckett added that the regime only had to “get one good hit to make an impact on domestic security perceptions inside Israel” and that it might take an interception rate of “one out of 100 drones getting through”.
Prof Yossi Mekelberg of the Chatham House think tank suggested the attacks might also be Iran’s method of testing defences “to find a way for their ballistic missiles”.
Megan Sutcliffe, of the intelligence company Sibylline, said the offensive was foremost in retaliation for the US attacks on Iran, but it could “marginally increase Iran's capacity to send munitions into Israeli airspace” by affecting Jordanian air defences.
