Iraq is once again caught in the crossfire of a widening Iran-Israel conflict, with pro-Tehran militias threatening to open a new front if the US enters the war, as Baghdad struggles to rein in the armed factions.
The latest escalation began late on Sunday when Iran launched ballistic missiles at northern Israel in response to an Israeli strike on Hezbollah’s command centre in Beirut’s southern suburbs. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the attack on Ramat David Airbase was a “warning” that broader strikes on US and Israeli targets would follow if “aggressions” continued.
Despite direct US intervention, Israel launched a wave of attacks across Iran on Monday in response to the overnight Iranian strikes on Israel.
Iran’s barrage marked the first direct missile attack on Israel in two months and shattered a fragile ceasefire in place since April 8. Air-raid sirens sounded across Israel, while Iraq and Syria temporarily closed their respective airspaces.
Immediately after the Iranian strikes, Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah militia, one of several powerful Iran-backed groups, issued one of its most direct threats yet.
“If America intervenes in the war, we will act directly against its interests and bases spread in Iraq and the region,” a statement read. Kataib Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for dozens of missile and drone attacks on US and Israeli targets in Iraq and Syria since the Gaza war began, as well as during the Iran war.
The leaders of Kataib Sayyed Al Shuhada and the True Promise Corps militias posted verses from the Quran and indicated readiness to fight.
The warnings echo similar statements made when the war broke out in late February, when these groups said a US war on Iran would not be a “leisurely affair” and vowed to stand with Tehran. They have claimed responsibility for drone and missile attacks on US interests in Iraq and elsewhere in the region, as well as other targets inside the country.
Iraq’s Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein and his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi agreed on the need to “intensify diplomatic efforts to reduce tension and enhance regional stability” in a phone call late Sunday.
According to a statement issued by the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, Mr Araghchi briefed Mr Hussein on the “latest developments related to the ongoing war”, providing a “detailed explanation” of the reasons behind Iran’s “recent response” to the Israeli attack.
The two ministers also discussed the "expected Israeli reaction" in the coming phase, as well as the trajectory and prospects of dialogue between Iran and the US.
They reviewed the overall situation in the region and stressed the importance of engaging European countries to play an “active role” in supporting peace efforts.
The renewed escalation threatens to derail Baghdad’s efforts to bring Iran-backed militias under state control.
This month, two prominent Iran-backed groups – Asaib Ahl Al Haq and Kataib Imam Ali – announced they would hand over their weapons to the Iraqi state. The move followed the same decision by Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr to place his Saraya Al Salam group's arms under state control.
The long-awaited move was welcomed by Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi, who described it as a “responsible stance” that would strengthen state institutions and the rule of law. US envoy Tom Barrack also praised the initiative, saying it would contribute to “the architecture of order” in Iraq.
Several armed factions, mainly Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba, have taken a different stance and linked disarmament to the presence of US and other foreign troops in Iraq.
“There are concerns that any US military action against Iran could trigger retaliatory attacks by Kataib Hezbollah and other groups on US bases in Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf,” a security official said.
“The government has channels of communication with the [armed] factions to encourage self-restraint,” the official added without elaborating. However, the official said, the US “has to realise that Iraq has achieved significant progress that cannot be lost”.
Tehran has signalled through the Houthi rebels that it could attempt to blockade the Bab Al Mandeb strait, the narrow gateway to the Red Sea. It has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil normally flows, since Israel and the US first attacked the country.
Together, the two straits form a single corridor linking energy exports from the Middle East to Europe and other markets. If both waterways are compromised, the effects would extend far beyond the region, hitting supply chains, energy markets and shipping costs worldwide.
