Health care and education are “not well-served” in Gaza's reconstruction plans, with a need to address trauma from the war alongside rebuilding the strip, an analysis of the proposals has warned.
More than 30 reconstruction plans have been produced since the start of the Gaza war in October 2023. Visions for the territory have ranged from a tourism and property hub, a global trade haven to a diaspora-funded homeland.
These include schemes proposed by the Board of Peace, the United Nations and the UAE firm Al Habtoor, and the Rand Corporation.
Others plans have been Palestinian-led, such as Palestine Emerging which was developed by a coalition of Palestinian business leaders, and Gaza Phoenix, which was initiated by Gaza’s local administrations and has an environmental focus of rebuilding the strip with recycled rubble.
But while efforts have concentrated on bricks and mortar, the social dimensions such as health care and education are often missing, according to an analysis of the plans by the Portland Trust, a British charity.
"Healthcare and education are not well-served, and very few plans engage with the psychological dimensions of recovery, even thought the scale of displacement, injury and prolonged insecurity mean reconstruction will unfold in a deeply traumatised landscape,” the report’s authors said.
“To be resilient, reconstruction must incorporate social recovery to counter trauma. Physical infrastructure alone will not restore the social fabric disrupted by prolonged violence and displacement.”
Costs to rebuild the strip have risen to $71 billion, according to the World Bank’s latest assessment. These will continue to rise as the US administration-led Gaza peace plan stalls in its second phase, suspending recovery efforts.
The immense task of rebuilding Gaza will be overseen by the US-led Board of Peace, with countries pledging $7 billion so far. Its daily administration will be handled by a technocratic committee of Palestinians – who remain sidelined in Egypt.
What Palestinians in Gaza want should be at the heart of all reconstruction efforts, said Chris Choa, a US-based architect who has worked on major urban planning for the strip for over 10 years and is an adviser on the two Palestinian-led plans.
“A lot of the planning of Gaza is seen through an ideological lens, but ultimately, what the people who live there want is often quite different. Most people don’t think in political abstractions. They just want to have a normal day,” Mr Choa told The National.
Isolated enclave or regional gateway
The report also cautions that plans to move Gaza’s infrastructure south, towards Egypt, do not take into account the strip's links with the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem.
The US-led plan by the Board of Peace is one of multiple proposals to place Gaza’s infrastructure and population southwards, away from Israel.
Though the proposal to turn Gaza into a property and tourism investment hub would mean the “extensive modernisation” of its key infrastructure, most of it is “reorientated” towards Egypt, the report said.
Plans that shift the centre south reflect “a Gaza-only perspective”, whereas those with key infrastructure in the north treat Gaza and the West Bank as “single and indivisible”.
“In some plans Gaza is an enclave, in others a corridor. In more ambitious plans it is a regional gateway,” the Portland Trust said of its analysis of the proposals.
There have been long-standing plans to develop Gaza’s economy by connecting it to the West Bank through a corridor. Connectivity between the two territories is at the heart of the Oslo Accords.
A technical proposal for the corridor known as Arc was put forward by the Rand Corporation in 2005. But a key obstacle to the corridor’s delivery has been security concerns from Israel.
Similar connectivity proposals also appear in Palestinian-led plans such as Palestine Emerging, Connected Gaza as well as Al Habtoor and the heritage focused Anthedon, the report said.
“Gaza itself is too small to survive on its own. It has to be part of a much broader urban region, because the whole world is organising itself that way,” said Mr Choa.
“Plans for Gaza needed to consider its long-term future as part of a region that encompasses the West Bank, Jordan and Israel among other neighbours,” he said.
Zizette Darkazally, associate fellow at Chatham House and former adviser to the PLO, said that although there are “many well worked plans for Gaza’s reconstruction” it must be understood in a broader context.
“Gaza reconstruction and rehabilitation must be addressed within the wider Israeli-Palestinian conflict and not as a stand-alone issue,” she said.
“For any postwar plan for Gaza to work, it must take into consideration Gaza’s political, economic and governance connectivity to the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.”
The question at the heart of the proposals is how to support Gaza’s economic recovery in the long term – once peace is established.
The Board of Peace and Al Habtoor plans focus on investing in Gaza’s tourism, leisure, real estate and long-term development projects with a master plan. While the Portland Trust report concedes this can generate growth in Gaza, a more sustained focus on developing local industries is needed.
Plans such as Palestine Emerging and Connected Gaza focus on making Gaza’s local economy more productive, while connecting it to regional trade, with strong links to the Palestinian diaspora.
Stalled efforts
Gaza’s reconstruction plans are unlikely to proceed any time soon. The second phase of the US-led peace process has stalled on negotiations to disarm Hamas, while Israel’s air strikes and entrenchment in Gaza continues.
Diplomats warn that the fragile ceasefire could collapse or it could remain in permanent limbo between war and peace.
Immediate humanitarian needs are immense. About 1.2 million people have lost their homes, with hospitals destroyed, lack of medical supplies and food, and extensive damage to water, sanitation and waste management infrastructure.
The report calls for more clarity on how humanitarian support phases in Gaza will progress towards recovery and reconstruction.
A major challenge for all plans will be addressing the changes to Gaza’s topography caused by the war and massive displacement, Mr Choa said.
“The temporary tends to become permanent. Where you put a temporary community, which makes sense now or a year from now, may be exactly where you want to put a power plant or an environmental zone in the future. You lock it out simply because you haven't thought through the long-term picture,” he said.
“That's a challenge, that's a constraint, that's reality, that's what war is like,” he said.
