An elusive senior Iranian commander has surfaced in Iraq twice in less than a month, while Tehran scrambles to prove it still holds the keys to Lebanon’s ceasefire – two fronts that have become deeply intertwined in Iran’s fight to preserve its regional influence.
After decades of building unrivalled political influence in both countries, Iran now fears its grip may be loosening, regional political and security sources told The National. They include a Lebanese politician who has long dealt with Iranian diplomats and a regional security official with decades of experience engaging Tehran.
They point to mounting Iranian political and military activity aimed at preserving its foothold in Iraq and Lebanon, where Tehran waged proxy wars against the US and Israel for years before the conflict reached Iranian soil.
“Tehran is now in open competition with Washington, and others, for political influence in Beirut and Baghdad,” the Lebanese politician, who requested anonymity, said. “After years of claiming sway over those Arab capitals, it now looks focused on saving what’s left.”
After the Iran-Iraq war ended in 1988, Tehran adopted a doctrine of “forward defence”, projecting power beyond its borders to prevent future conflicts from reaching the country. Over time, that doctrine evolved into a regional project built on proxy militias, missile arsenals, covert operations and nuclear leverage.
What began as a strategy to protect the Islamic Revolution evolved into a campaign to dominate parts of the region, with Beirut and Baghdad becoming its central pillars: Lebanon through Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful militant ally, and Iraq through Tehran-backed political parties and armed factions that rose after the 2003 US invasion.
The security official said that “active US pressure” in Beirut and Baghdad suggested Washington was seeking to exploit the current regional ceasefire to dismantle the bonds of the so-called Axis of Resistance and isolate Tehran.
He cited “ongoing political and diplomatic manoeuvring, including imposing a path of direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, and US President Donald Trump’s rapid call with Ali Al Zaidi despite the fact that he remains only constitutionally designated and has not yet become prime minister” of Iraq.
Embarrassing Iran
Lebanon and Israel are set to hold a new round of talks aimed at discussing the ceasefire, which Israel has repeatedly breached with strikes that have killed hundreds and erased villages. Hezbollah, meanwhile, has focused on drone attacks against Israeli troops.
The talks were facilitated by the US, which has long argued that support for Lebanon’s reconstruction, its army and an Israeli withdrawal must be tied to Hezbollah’s disarmament.
“Launching new and separate negotiations over Lebanon’s ceasefire is intended to embarrass Iran and Hezbollah,” the security source said.
Hezbollah has rejected the talks and called for them to be cancelled. Iran has also criticised the negotiations, warning Lebanon against engaging with Israel. Simultaneously, it has claimed to have made the ceasefire in Lebanon a crucial part of its negotiations with the US.
“Iran is trying to show that it is still calling the shots in Lebanon, but it is struggling to prove it,” the Lebanese political source explained.
On Wednesday, Lebanon took the unprecedented step of submitting a letter to the UN Security Council accusing Iran of diplomatic breaches and interference. The letter denounced “violations of international conventions” and “direct and blatant interference in Lebanon’s internal affairs” linked to the Iranian embassy in Beirut and Iranian actors, according to the official document sent to the UN.
Throughout the Hezbollah-Israel war, which resumed in March, there were repeated reports of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operatives working alongside Hezbollah against Israel. Lebanese authorities issued arrest warrants against some of those people and signalled that the IRGC was no longer welcome in the country as Beirut tried to distance itself from Iranian influence.
A Lebanese security source told The National that some operatives are believed to have been given Lebanese passports by previous administrations to operate freely inside the country. The claim could not be independently verified.
Brig Gen Esmail Qaani, head of the IRGC’s external operations arm, the Quds Force, made an unannounced visit to Baghdad this week as a new government is being formed, The National has learnt. In talks with Iran-backed parties and militias, he reportedly drew red lines, warning against concessions to Washington on disarming armed groups or reorienting Iraq towards closer US alignment.
Scale, not resilience
Last month, Iraq’s largest Shiite parliamentary bloc, the Co-ordination Framework, put forward Mr Al Zaidi, a 41-year-old businessman, as a compromise candidate for prime minister. The move has been viewed in Tehran as a potential shift in Iraq’s foreign alignment, amid what sources describe as growing US and regional backing for Mr Al Zaidi.
During his visit, Brig Gen Qaani held closed-door meetings with leaders of Iraq’s main Shiite blocs and commanders of Iran-backed armed factions, including groups operating within the Popular Mobilisation Forces, an umbrella network of mainly Shiite paramilitary groups that Washington views as an Iranian tool.
Despite remaining one of Iran’s most elusive commanders and surviving repeated Israeli assassination attempts, Brig Gen Qaani was on his second trip to Baghdad in less than a month.
An Iraqi political source said the visits reflected mounting Iranian concern over the direction of government formation talks and what Tehran sees as growing efforts to pull Baghdad away from its orbit.
“Surrounding Ali Al Zaidi with an aura of American backing is intended to put him in an awkward position as he forms his government,” the source said.
“Washington has drawn a red line: a cabinet that excludes resistance factions and sidelines Iranian influence. That risks placing Al Zaidi on a collision course with the very bloc that nominated him,” he added.
“Washington is trying to force Ali Al Zaidi to adopt a government programme that distances Baghdad from Tehran, laying the political groundwork for keeping Iraq outside any future confrontation with Iran.”
The US has pushed for a government that curtails the autonomy of Iran-backed militias, particularly after recent cross-border drone attacks and repeated strikes on US bases in Iraq and neighbouring countries. Washington has tied security assistance and economic support to progress on disarming armed groups and forming a government free from Iranian influence.
The pressure on Mr Al Zaidi is expected to intensify as consultations continue. While he has not publicly commented on disarmament, Iraqi politicians say he is trying to present himself as a unifying figure capable of balancing ties with both Tehran and Washington without triggering a rupture with either side.
Middle East expert and visiting scholar Lina Khatib wrote at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Centre for Science in April that the Middle East is moving away from a “hybrid order shaped by Iranian-backed militias towards a more state-centred, though still fragile, security landscape”.
“Proxy warfare once offered Tehran a means of deterrence and influence. Over time, however, it generated familiar problems of overextension: weakened cohesion, divergent local interests, co-ordination failures, reputational damage, and growing vulnerability to disruption,” she added.
“Expansion produced scale, but not resilience.”
