Live updates: Follow the latest news on the Iran war
US President Donald Trump and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said Iran’s air defences have been decimated and American and Israeli aircraft are roaming freely over its skies. But on the ground, a different story has unfolded.
A US F-15E fighter jet was shot down on Friday, and an A-10 aircraft was also lost during the same operation. Two crew members have been rescued, while another remains missing, with US and Iranian forces racing to locate him.
So how could Iran have done that, after five weeks of US and Israeli strikes that mainly targeted its defence and missile capabilities?
Variety of systems
The Iranian defence system, like that of all countries with a significant military, encompasses a wide range of missiles and air defence systems, but it is likely to be more efficient than some predicted.
According to the Washington Institute, in 2023, Iran had more than 20 types of missiles for anti-air defence, with a wide variety imported from countries such as China and Russia, some dating back to the USSR.
“Iran has spent decades investing in its air defence capabilities, resulting in a number of systems being developed domestically,” said NR Jenzen-Jones, a technical intelligence specialist, arms historian and director of the Armament Research Services (ARES) consultancy.
“This, in addition to significant foreign imports of both radar systems and surface-to-air missiles, has resulted in a high total number of air defence systems in Iranian service,” Mr Jenzen-Jones told The National.
These systems mainly fall into two categories, giving Iran the flexibility to engage a wide range of targets.
Fixed sites, where more powerful and largely immovable air defence systems are stationed, can strike targets at longer ranges. While highly effective, these sites have been heavily degraded over five weeks of war.
But Iran’s real advantage lies in its portable systems. “These mobile air defence assets can range from MANPADS (Man-Portable Air Defence Systems), transportable by a single individual, to those mounted on light tactical vehicles or civilian trucks,” added Mr Jenzen-Jones.
“Whilst these weapons have a limited range and may not benefit from networked sensor data, they are often highly mobile or fired from concealed launch platforms, making them much harder to locate and destroy.”
New chapter?
Iran has invested heavily in these systems in recent decades, developing a doctrine that disperses them widely across the country and enables them to operate independently.
Last July, Reuters reported that Iran had sought a $589 million deal to purchase MANPADS from Russia, including Verba launchers and 9M336 missiles. The Verba is a shoulder-fired system, making it highly mobile and easy to deploy in a wide range of conditions. Deliveries were expected to begin in 2027.
Two hours after the crash of the F-15E, the A-10 Thunderbolt II, also known as a Warthog, was sent to rescue the army personnel. It was hit above the Gulf and managed to fly outside Iranian airspace before ejecting. Iran also claimed the attack.
The Warthog is a slower, bigger plane than the F-15 and is used primarily for close support and destroying military ground vehicles. It is known for its distinctive sound and is considered harder to destroy.
“The circumstances surrounding the recent loss of two US aircraft remain unclear,” Mr Jenzen-Jones said. “Modern aircraft are equipped with a range of countermeasures to reduce the likelihood of being hit by an enemy surface-to-air missile.”
The US narrative is that Iran’s capabilities have been crippled, but the reality appears more nuanced, that they have been significantly degraded, yet still retain the capacity to strike back.
For Iran, this could be the beginning of a new chapter in the war.
Its Khatam Al Anbiya joint military command said on Saturday that a new air defence system was used on Friday to target the US fighter jet. A spokesperson added that the country would “definitely achieve full control” over its airspace.
