Live updates: Follow the latest news on US-Iran war
The US-Israeli war with Iran is going to plan, according to a former US Centcom commander.
Retired general Joseph Votel warned, however, that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is “a major operation” that will need to be sustained “for a period of time”.
Referring to the American military operation, Mr Votel said: “I would challenge the notion that this is taking a while. I think this is taking about as long as we expected from a military standpoint.
“Iran is a country that is larger than the state of Alaska. It has very varied terrain. It has a regime and a military that’s been in position for decades.
"They have had the ability to put things on the ground and have reacted to things, have learned from previous incidents they’ve been involved in with us and others across the region, and have prepared for this.
Mr Votel emphasised that, while Tehran continues to launch drone and missile attacks on Israel and the Gulf states, the more recent strikes have been on a smaller scale.
“They’re certainly not shooting the same size of volleys as they were in the early days, but they are shooting. So we have to respond to that. They are leveraging their asymmetric capabilities. That becomes a challenge for us. It’s not insurmountable, but it is a challenge that we have to deal with right now.”
Operation Epic Fury has affected global bond markets and delivered a massive energy supply shock to the world. Now in its fourth week, the repercussions are expected to lead to a prolonged period of market volatility and oil prices above $100 a barrel.
The Strait of Hormuz transit chokepoint is a problem, Mr Votel believes, that the American people need to be aware of.
“That should be part of what we do," he said. “There are certain times when you have to have absolute surprise in military operations. Venezuela is a good example. There was not a significant wake created. Larger operations like this create a much bigger wake, and you have to prepare people for that.”
The strategy to defeat Iran, Mr Votel said, has been a part of military planning for many years. He said shutting down the Strait of Hormuz was expected.
“It’s not a surprise to me, as someone who spent a lot of time in the region and a former Centcom commander, that they would attempt to shut that down and, for the most part, shut it down,” Mr Votel said.
“I think everybody in the military recognised that they would do that.”
As for what happens next, Mr Votel said that, from a military standpoint, initiating regime change was never part of the plan. “It’s about compelling Iran to abandon their nuclear ambitions and to prevent them from employing their military capabilities beyond their borders,” he said. “It was not about regime change.”
As for the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, he is cautiously optimistic but warned that the US may need to increase its presence in the region for some time.
“We have to take a lot of our warships that are now focused on doing other operations and have them be redirected towards [the strait]. We will have to get mine countermeasure ships in place to proof those lanes so we can give confidence to the merchant mariners.
“The first thing we do when we open the strait is [send a message that] we’re confident there are no mines in it. We have got to maintain air cover and surveillance over that whole area.
“They’re probably beginning to get things in place, so they may be able to move a little bit faster. But it takes time. That’s a major operation that we’re going to have to create and then sustain for a period of time until some agreement is made that allows [safe passage] to be done without military force.”
