The US has given Lebanon indirect guarantees that Israel will not attack Beirut’s airport and port, Lebanese political sources and western diplomats told The National, but continued Hezbollah attacks could shift those red lines and may widen the military campaign to include Lebanese infrastructure.
Israel has carried out extensive strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, as well as in southern and eastern Lebanon, in retaliation for rockets launched by the group on Monday after it entered the war against the US and Israel in support of Iran.
Hezbollah had not launched a single attack on Israeli territory since a ceasefire was agreed in November 2024 between the group and its sworn enemy, despite near-daily Israeli air strikes in southern and eastern Lebanon.
“The only Israeli guarantees so far are that the airport will not be struck, to allow people to leave, and that the port will remain operational to ensure the flow of supplies,” a western diplomatic source told The National.
A Lebanese official confirmed that “this was true as of yesterday”. “But today, we don’t know,” they added. “And there are no other guarantees.”
While deadly, Israel has so far confined its strikes – which have killed at least 52 people, including civilians – to areas where Hezbollah holds sway, stopping short of targeting Lebanese infrastructure.
Despite the fighting, Lebanese airspace has remained open so far – a decision that came after a meeting of the country’s Supreme Defence Council, according to Transport Minister Fayez Rasamny.
Lebanese authorities are hurrying to prevent the conflict from escalating, the Lebanese official said, adding that US-backed President Joseph Aoun has been in contact with western counterparts to do “whatever is possible to bring an end to the war”.
“The Americans are trying to de-escalate but they consider that Hezbollah started this war and Hezbollah is still launching rockets today. The group wasted all of Lebanon’s peace efforts,” they added.
Despite these efforts, the conflict has been escalating quickly on the ground. Israel’s campaign over the past two days has been widespread, with the military issuing bombing eviction notices for dozens of villages in the south and the east, forcing more than 30,000 residents to flee.
On Tuesday, the Israeli military advanced about a few kilometres into Lebanese territory, prompting fears of a broader ground invasion and leading Lebanese troops to withdraw before returning south of the Israeli border.
“The Israeli response is not surprising. It is no secret that Israel has long prepared for every possible scenario in Lebanon, with plans ready to be activated, waiting for the slightest misstep,” the western diplomat said.
Meanwhile, Unifil, the UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, said dozens of Hezbollah rockets and missiles have been fired into Israel since Monday.
A second diplomatic source said the Lebanese government has made clear requests to the Quintet for Lebanon, an informal group comprising the US, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar, to convey to Israel that it is not in its interest to strike infrastructure, launch a ground invasion or drag the country into a wider war.
“There is an active effort by Lebanon’s partners to prevent reaching that point and to preserve infrastructure,” the diplomatic source said, adding that any guarantees are conditional on the Lebanese government demonstrating real action to stop Hezbollah’s attacks.
“But the more rockets Hezbollah fires, the weaker the guarantee becomes. And it could lead Israel to extend the scope of its strikes, as it seems ready to settle the matter with Hezbollah once and for all,” the diplomat added.
Widespread condemnations
Hezbollah’s intervention has been widely condemned by Lebanese authorities. Following an emergency meeting of the Council of Ministers on Monday, the government banned the group’s military and security activities and announced judicial measures against those responsible for the rocket launches.
But it remains unclear how the weakened Lebanese state would be able to implement the decision.
A second Lebanese source said the cabinet's move was “no longer just about the confiscation of weapons, but also the person who holds them”. The Lebanese judiciary has already directed the security forces to track down and prosecute those who fired the initial rockets at Israel in the early hours of Monday.
No arrests linked to the initial attack have been made so far.
“Now, this does not mean everything can be implemented immediately because we don’t have full control,” the Lebanese official said. “Does it mean we can arrest all of them? No. It will be progressive,” they added.
Hezbollah has condemned the cabinet's decision, saying its attacks are an act of self-defence against “continuing Israeli aggression”.
“Confrontation is a legitimate right,” the group said in a statement, stating that what it has carried out is a “reaction to the aggression, primarily based on national considerations and on the right to secure safety and stability” for the Lebanese.
Israel has said the repeated strikes over the past 18 months, which have been widely condemned by rights groups and killed dozens of civilians, were aimed at Hezbollah.
In January, the Lebanese army announced the completion of the first phase of a US-backed plan to disarm Hezbollah, adopted under the 2024 ceasefire, the dismantling of the group’s arsenal south of the Litani River, about 30 kilometres from the Israeli-Lebanese border.
The two diplomatic sources confirmed that the rockets were launched from south of the Litani River.
It was not clear if Hezbollah has been able to move back some of its arsenal south of the Litani, or if these are sites that have not been previously uncovered by the Lebanese army.
“If the first ones were launched north of the Litani, now the scope has widened, across the deep south, the north and the Bekaa,” the western diplomat said.
“With the prospect of a ground incursion on the table, all the counters have been reset to zero."
