Iraq’s Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein has warned that tension between the US and Iran now goes beyond the nuclear issue to more complex matters such as ballistic missiles, dimming hopes of an agreement and increasing the risk of a regional war.
In an interview with The National at the Munich Security Conference, Mr Hussein said Iraq is deeply concerned about rising tension and the growing US military presence in the region.
"I don't think the issue has to do with the nuclear project anymore. I think the Iranians are ready to reach an agreement about nuclear issues," he said.
"The main problem is about the ballistic missiles and the system of ballistic missiles. So this is the next problem. And I don't know how it would be solved, because as I understood from the Iranian side, this is impossible to have even on the agenda of the negotiations".
US officials have repeatedly indicated their desire to tackle Iran’s ballistic missile programme, a thorny issue that Tehran insists is non-negotiable and is for defence purposes only.
Over recent weeks, the Middle East has witnessed its most heightened tensions since the Iran-Israel war in June last year, with President Donald Trump saying a deal with Iran “should happen quickly” as Washington prepares to deploy a second aircraft carrier strike group to the region following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the US.
The US and Iran held talks in Oman this month, but the outcome remains uncertain.
"I'm really worried about the situation because it is true that the negotiation is continuing and perhaps there will be another meeting in Muscat," said the Iraqi foreign minister.
"But at the same time, we are seeing that there are more than 40,000 American soldiers in the area. The question is: what's going on? We are worried because if the process of negotiation does not succeed and without having any results, then the alternative will be, of course, war. That's what we reject", he added.
"I am afraid that the next war will not be a limited war. I am really worried about a war, which can cover the whole area, and that will be a disaster for the area. So the alternative for us is to keep talking and be at the table. But if both sides won't be satisfied, then I am afraid we are heading towards a huge conflict in the area."
Armed militants
Baghdad, which has mediated between the US and Iran in the past, has been treading carefully, trying to balance relations with both sides. But one of the biggest questions remains the role of Iran-backed militias in Iraq, their influence over the political and security landscape, and their threats to retaliate if Iran is attacked and how that could upend Iraq’s fragile balancing act.
“It is true that we have some armed groups with different positions,” said Mr Hussein. “But the Iraqi government is trying to convince them to behave on the basis of Iraqi interests.”
Baghdad’s policy, he stressed, is to keep Iraq out of any regional war. However, he admitted that escalation could be difficult to contain if militias attack US interests from Iraqi territory.
The issue of weapons outside state control is now a central political debate in Iraq. The constitution does not allow armed groups to operate independently of the state, but several factions with military wings are represented in parliament.
Mr Hussein said the next Iraqi government “must find a real solution” to the issue. “If they are part of the political system, why must they function outside the system?” he said.
Iraq recently held elections and is in the process of forming a new government and naming a prime minister. Pressed on US opposition to Nouri Al Maliki, Mr Hussein acknowledged that Mr Trump has made Washington’s rejection of the former leader's candidacy clear.
He stressed that the selection is an internal matter tied to the Shiite Co-ordination Framework’s decision, but added that Baghdad takes Mr Trump’s remarks “very seriously”.
Mr Trump on Friday said the US is “looking at a prime minister”. “We’re going to see what’s going to happen,” he told reporters at the White House. “We’ve got some ideas on it. But in the end, everybody needs the US. Everybody needs us.”
Iraq's parliament last month postponed the election of a president after parties failed to reach an agreement. Mr Hussein, who is one of the contenders, said it was up to members of parliament to "choose the right person for this position".
Questioned about who currently serves as Iraq’s main interlocutor with Washington, he said his understanding is that Mark Savaya is no longer involved. As a result, Iraq is indirectly dealing with Tom Barrack, the US special Middle East envoy, who is also in charge of the Syrian, Lebanese and Turkish files.
ISIS file
Mr Hussein said another urgent file that must be addressed by the coming Iraqi administration is the management of ISIS detainees.
He confirmed that Iraq has received about 5,000 prisoners transferred from Syria, amid instability in the neighbouring country, with many being foreign nationals. “It is a heavy burden,” Mr Hussein said.
The detainees come from more than 30 countries, including European and Arab states. Iraq has begun negotiations with those governments to repatriate their citizens but acknowledged legal and political obstacles.
Some European countries face legal limits on how long suspects can be held for membership in a terrorist organisation, while Iraq argues that many detainees committed crimes on Iraqi soil and can be tried locally.
“Our legal process started,” Mr Hussein affirmed.
He said Iraq supports an agreement being implemented in Syria to end the fighting between the government and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces that led to the prisoner transfer to Iraq. "We are on good terms with the Syrian government," he said.
"We hope that Syria will get back stability and it'll be more secure. But at the same time, we wanted to have control of these guys because they are very dangerous."
Despite regional tension, Mr Hussein described Iraq as internally stable following reduced US troop levels and the end of the UN Assistance Mission last year. However, he warned that any broader conflict would have direct consequences for Iraq and the Gulf.
“We are fed up with wars,” he said. “Our society has been a victim of many wars.” Asked whether he was optimistic about the region’s trajectory, Mr Hussein said he was “realistic”.
