Loyalists to Libya’s former dictator Muammar Qaddafi have been left rudderless by the mysterious killing of his son Saif Al Islam, analysts told The National on Wednesday.
As Libyans exchanged messages wondering who had gunned down the elusive 53-year-old, experts said there was little hope of a proper investigation cracking the case.
But some believe the powerful Haftar family, which holds sway in eastern Libya, stands to benefit with a rival removed and no clear alternative for pro-Qaddafi hardliners to rally around.
Libya is divided between two governments that emerged after Muammar Qaddafi’s bloody overthrow in 2011. UN-backed Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah governs from Tripoli, while forces led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar dominate in the east.
A prominent figure under his father’s rule, Saif Al Islam Qaddafi held no office at the time of his death and was rarely seen in public. But his candidacy in an aborted Libyan election in 2021 made clear he harboured hopes of a comeback.
With his killing “the pro-Qaddafi bloc now has no alternative” but to throw in its lot with Mr Haftar, Anas El Gomati, director of the Sadeq Institute think tank in Libya, told The National.
The field marshal “has spent years absorbing former regime officers, tribal leaders, anyone from Qaddafi’s system with social capital or skills he can exploit”, Mr El Gomati said. “Either way, he wins. The pro-Qaddafi movement becomes politically irrelevant or gets absorbed into his structure.”
Othman Ben Sassi, a member of Libya’s post-2011 National Transitional Council, believes Saif Al Islam lacked influence in today’s Libya, operating “in the desert somewhere” with no clear group behind him.
“We don’t know anything about him, what he was doing,” Mr Ben Sassi said. He said Saif Al Islam appeared to have “the same programme as his father”.
“His father is finished and their programme is finished. I think we have to look to the future,” he said.
Long wait for peace
Once seen as a potential reformer under his father, Saif Al Islam lost his credibility abroad after the 2011 uprising, which led to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant against him on charges of murder and persecution.
Muammar Qaddafi was killed in the revolt. He had many children but no clear heir. Saif Al Islam was in custody until 2017. Another son, Hannibal Qaddafi, was recently freed in Lebanon after a decade in prison linked to a cleric’s disappearance.
As Libya’s internal conflict brewed, Saif Al Islam dramatically resurfaced in 2021 as a presidential candidate, making him a rival to both Mr Haftar and Mr Dbeibah. But the election never took place and the younger Qaddafi faded from view again.
In recent years he “acted as a spectre over Libyan politics as a symbol of the former regime”, said Tim Eaton, a Libya expert at the Chatham House think tank. “Were there to be elections, that would definitely gain quite a large number of votes.
“At the same time, you’re talking about a guy who didn’t really go outside of his close protection in the city of Zintan, had no wider forces under his name, and doesn’t really have much impact on the day-to-day running of the Libyan state.”
Libyans are still waiting for an election as efforts to break the political deadlock stall. US envoy Massad Boulos last week held talks in Paris with officials from the east and west, but there were no clear signs of progress.
Mr El Gomati said the Haftar camp’s stance in talks was that any settlement must guarantee the family’s future. With Mr Haftar positioning his son Saddam as his heir, he said, the younger Qaddafi was a rival to that “dynastic project”.
Killing puzzle
Details of the assassination remain unclear. Saif Al Islam’s office said he was killed during a “direct confrontation” with four unknown gunmen who broke into his home. There were claims of security cameras being disabled during the ambush in Zintan.
The Libyan attorney general’s office said investigators had examined the body and found Saif Al Islam died of gunshot wounds. It said it was working to identify suspects.
While there has been no all-out conflict in years, violence and political tribalism are seen as damaging economic prospects in Libya, which has Africa’s largest crude oil reserves. Most major oilfields are under the control of Mr Khalifa’s Libyan Arab Armed Forces.
“If you look at the Libyan Arab Armed Forces, they’ve expanded into the south quite significantly and they’ve taken quite a few commanders that were formerly affiliated with the Qaddafi regime under their wing,” Mr Eaton said.
“What they feared is that if Saif became a prominent political figure, if something happened, that Saif would be able to call on these groups and that these groups would abandon Haftar and go with Saif. So in that sense, Saif no longer being around removes that threat.”
Mr Ben Sassi said people were asking each other for information after news of Saif Al Islam’s killing broke, but like other experts he doubted there would be any credible investigation.
“We never hear about any results for any problem happening in Libya,” Mr Ben Sassi said. “I don’t think that we will know.”
