Reforms to Iran's government seem a likely outcome of the latest wave of protests sweeping the country, assuming it survives them, analysts told The National.
Others say that regime change is a possibility after two weeks of increasingly violent scenes and responses by the security forces have resulted in the deaths of dozens and claims of foreign interference are stoking the tension.
While the mass protests are not new to Iran, this time they are widespread and are among different classes of society, noted Dina Esfandiary, a Middle East expert at Bloomberg Geoeconomics.
“There is real sense of hopelessness in Iran, so it's a now-or-never situation for them. The spectre of war is hanging over their heads as well, which has paralysed the leadership,” Ms Esfandiary told The National.
“It’s a perfect storm,” she added.
A likely outcome would be the “morphing of the Islamic Republic and maybe the takeover of the Islamic Republic Guard Corps (IRGC) or maybe even reforms”, she said.
Protests began in response to soaring inflation and the weakness of the currency, but quickly turned political with protesters demanding an end to clerical rule. Iranian cities have been gripped in recent nights by mass rallies denouncing the Islamic republic, with Reza Pahlavi, the son of the ousted shah, urging protesters to seize city centres.
The Iranian government has acknowledged the economic demands of the protesters and offered dialogue, but as the demonstrations have grown the crackdown has become more violent.
President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a TV interview on Sunday that the government would reform the subsidy system to stabilise the market, strengthen production and increase people's purchasing power, and would closely monitor the supply chain.
He said the government would not change the amount of foreign exchange it allocates to import medicine and basic goods.
“I think supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his 'second' Islamic republic, are political zombies: finished even if they continue to walk,” said Farzan Sabet, Iran analyst at the Geneva Graduate Institute.
“Some kind of change is inevitable, and sooner, rather than later. I believe these protests will be decisive to that change,” Mr Sabet said, adding that the nature of the change remains to be seen.
Before the 12-Day War in June, when Israel and the US attacked Iran, regime change was not a possibility, Mr Sabet told The National.
“But since then, I have argued that a realistic window for this has opened, maybe for the first time in decades,” he said, adding the government how shown that it is “incapable of addressing the multiple crises that are taking place”.
Authorities in Tehran accuse the US and Israel of fomenting riots and have shut down the internet. The blackout has sharply reduced the amount of information flowing out of Iran as rights groups have documented the deaths of protesters.
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said about 116 people had been killed so far, including four medical personnel, one prosecutor and 37 members of the security forces. Oslo-based Hengaw Organisation for Human Rights said it had verified the identities of 50 people killed “by direct gunfire from the Iranian government”.
“A crackdown is evident and the aim by the regime is to get people off the streets,” Sanam Vakhil, director for the Middle East and North Africa programme at London's Chatham House think tank, said.
“These protests, whatever the outcome, will further damage an already fractured legitimacy for a state system that is at the end of its life,” Ms Vakhil added.
The current protests, as has been the case before, are a largely leaderless movement. Despite Mr Pahlavi's calls to protesters, his influence is limited.
“Reza Pahlavi's name is chanted around Iran for a few reasons: there is no co-ordinated opposition across the country, although there are many activists but they have been suppressed and silent in jail for decades now,” Ms Vakhil said.
He has drawn attention given his background, she said, but will he “be going back in a plane and trying to lead the future direction of Iran? This will be determined by Iranians inside the country who are looking for a democratic outcome following years of dictatorship”.
Ms Vakhil warned that the revolution in 1979 was a people led-movement against an authoritarian monarchy. “I hope this time the results will be meaningful and Iranians will have a hand in shaping their future.”
