Divisions within Yemen’s ruling council not only put the future of the governing body at risk, but also open the door for others to gain, including the Houthis and extremist groups, experts say.
On Tuesday, tensions escalated between members of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) as Saudi Arabia struck armoured vehicles in the southern port of Mukalla, followed by the UAE announcing it was withdrawing all remaining counter-terrorism teams from Yemen.
Meanwhile, four PLC members accused the council’s chairman, Rashad Al Alimi, of overreach after he unilaterally demanded the withdrawal of UAE forces, in breach of decision-making rules.
Saudi Arabia has led the anti-Houthi alliance since 2015, with the UAE playing a key role in halting the advance of the Iran-backed rebels, expelling them from the south and combating extremist groups such as Al Qaeda and ISIS.
The situation is "quite bad" for the region and Yemen, said Farea Al Muslimi, research fellow at Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme.
He said he no longer saw a future for the PLC in Yemen, given the fragmentation and infighting, and added that he expects the events to have broader implications. "This is very, very bad for everyone except Iran and the Houthis," he said.
The Southern Transitional Council (STC), which seeks the restoration of an independent southern state, recently took control of Hadhramaut and Mahra from other pro-government forces, effectively consolidating its grip over all southern governorates.
The group said the move followed what it described as the failure of other pro-government factions to launch a serious campaign against the Houthis in their northern strongholds, including the capital Sanaa.
Saudi Arabia, which hosts senior Yemeni government and PLC figures, condemned the STC’s takeover, saying it was carried out without co-ordination with the coalition and, on Tuesday, accused the UAE of having a role in it. That accusation was rejected by the UAE.
The rebels have remained publicly silent over the latest developments. But a Yemeni source close to the Houthis said their view is that the coalition’s role has almost ended and they are "celebrating".
“More than 10 years have passed since the Saudi military intervention in Yemen and it has led to nothing but further bloodshed,” the source said. “The Houthis are now thinking, will it still be there in 2026?”
For Bilqees Al Lahbi, a researcher at the Sanaa Centre for Strategic Studies who lives in Cairo, Yemen is caught between a rock and a hard place. "We are in the face of major challenges," she said.
The only thing she seems sure of is that "those who have the most to gain are the ones who gained the most from the beginning of the war: the Houthis".
The latest crisis underscores the fragility of Yemen’s already fractured political landscape, with infighting among anti-Houthi forces threatening to further complicate efforts to stabilise the war-torn country and defeat the Iran-backed rebels who have controlled the capital Sanaa and northern regions for a decade.
Experts say there was a lost opportunity to fully pressure the Houthis’ main backer, Iran, at a moment of significant regional weakness, and to push Tehran into making concessions, including bringing the rebels to a peace deal in the impoverished country.
"The latest developments may have closed that door, instead opening space for Iran and the Houthis to regroup and attempt new campaigns in the south. With the STC being the dominant force there, and tensions simmering with other factions, the gap is wide open," said a Yemeni political source.
Southern forces played a significant role in driving Houthi fighters out of southern Yemen, particularly in Aden, Lahj and parts of Abyan, during the early years of the war between 2015 and 2018.
Those battles prevented the Houthis from consolidating control over the south after their advance from Sanaa and allowed the internationally recognised government to re-establish a foothold in Aden. The STC later emerged as a political umbrella for many of the southern forces involved in those campaigns.
Along Yemen’s western coast, UAE-trained forces were central to operations that expelled the Houthis from large stretches of territory, including Mokha, Khokha and areas south of Hodeidah. The offensives disrupted key Houthi supply routes along the Red Sea and were widely seen as among the most effective ground campaigns of the war.
UAE-trained troops also led counter-terrorism operations against Al Qaeda and ISIS, particularly in Abyan and Shabwa, dismantling militant strongholds and attacking senior figures who sought to exploit the conflict to establish safe havens, until they were largely defeated in co-ordination with US forces.
“Without the Emirates' CT team in place, it is certainly going to make things more challenging taking on Al Qaeda in Yemen,” a British defence source said.
Najlaa, a Yemeni mother in Sanaa, said she is watching the news with great concern. "We're one country and one nation," she said. "We're very worried about what's happening – whether a war, divisions or external strikes."
