US envoy Tom Barrack has said Syria and Lebanon are the “next two vital pieces” in moves towards peace in the Middle East envisioned in President Donald Trump's 20-point plan to end Israel's war on Gaza.
But Lebanon's slow progress on disarming Hezbollah could lead Israel to “act unilaterally” and launch yet another war on the country, Mr Barrack said.
He said the October 13 summit in Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt that plotted the next steps for peace in Gaza – but did not include representatives from Hamas or Israel − “will be remembered as a defining moment in modern Middle Eastern diplomacy”.
“The release of hostages, the cessation of hostilities, and the commitments made at Sharm El Sheikh have laid a foundation that now must be constantly monitored, amended and administered in Gaza because there is no doubt that this is a process rather than an event,” he said. “The rhythm of dialogue, however, now needs to be extended northward – to Syria, and ultimately to Lebanon.”
Mr Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy to Syria, who has also led negotiations with Lebanon, made his comments in a lengthy “personal perspective” posted on his official X account.
“Yet the next two vital pieces of this architecture of peace remain incomplete,” he said, referring to Damascus and Beirut.
The US envoy was considerably more upbeat about Syria than he was about Lebanon. He urged the US Congress to repeal the Caesar Act, which imposed wide-ranging sanctions on the regime of former president Bashar Al Assad in Syria that was toppled by rebels last December.
The legislation “served its moral purpose against the previous, treacherous Assad regime but now suffocates a nation seeking to rebuild”, he said.
He was more downbeat on Lebanon, and conceded that a US-brokered ceasefire that brought an end to much of the Israel-Hezbollah fighting last November had “ultimately failed”.
“No real mechanism for enforcement exists,” Mr Barrack said, referring to the fact Lebanon bans any direct communication with Israel.
Under the ceasefire deal, Hezbollah was supposed to withdraw to north of the Litani River while the underfunded Lebanese Armed Forces took over its positions. Israel was supposed to withdraw from Lebanon, but instead continues to occupy at least five points of Lebanese territory and bombs the country repeatedly.
“The result was a fragile calm without peace, an army without authority and a government without control,” Mr Barrack said.
In August, in an unprecedented move, the Lebanese government charged the army with formally disarming Iran-backed, Shiite militant group Hezbollah.
That was despite all Shiite ministers storming out of a cabinet meeting to discuss the once unthinkable topic, with Hezbollah itself resisting any discussion over its weapons until Israel ceases its bombings and withdraws.
Although the process of disarmament has started in the south, some observers say it is not happening fast enough. The Lebanese military is severely underfunded and says it cannot extend full control across southern Lebanon until the Israelis have withdrawn.
Mr Barrack said the cabinet and its ministers “are trapped in sectarian paralysis”.
“The Israelis have simply said the rhetoric does not match reality. As Damascus stabilises, Hezbollah grows more isolated. The militia’s foreign control undermines Lebanon’s sovereignty, deters investment, and erodes public confidence and is a constant red flag to Israel,” he said.
“But the incentives for action now outweigh the costs of inaction: regional partners are ready to invest, provided Lebanon reclaims the monopoly on legitimate force solely under the Lebanese Armed Forces. Should Beirut continue to hesitate, Israel may act unilaterally – and the consequences would be grave.”
The World Bank has estimated the damage and losses to Lebanon from Israel's bombardment last year at $14 billion. Lebanon has carried out almost no reconstruction so far, with the government short on funds and the international community refusing to part with significant aid until there is more progress on disarming Hezbollah and economic reform.
Mr Barrack said Washington had sought “to usher Lebanon towards a peaceful solution with Israel through incentives rather than imposition”, pointing to the provision of aid based on verifiable progress on disarmament and support to bolster the capacity of the Lebanese Armed Forces.
“All these initiatives have stalled while the rest of the region is accelerating towards expulsion of Iran’s terrorist proxies. Syria’s courageous moves towards a border agreement and hopefully future co-operation mark the first steps towards securing Israel’s northern frontier,” he said of Israel-Syria border talks.
“Hezbollah’s disarmament must be the second. Lebanon now faces a defining choice: to seize the path of national renewal or remain mired in paralysis and decline,” Mr Barrack added.
