Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani expects to win parliamentary elections in November, but a low voter turnout could see his alliance of parties lose seats in the next government, experts have said.
Mr Al Sudani’s approval ratings are the highest on record in Iraq since 2003, where he is largely credited for restoring security. “In this short period of time we were able to regain the lost trust between the people and the political process,” he said, speaking at foreign affairs think tank Chatham House.
“Because this government has addressed the most important aspirations and concerns of Iraqi citizens.”
Since coming to power in 2022, he has sought to distance Iraq from the tensions between the US and Iran that were escalating, including on Iraqi soil. This position was tested by the breakout of a 12-day war between Israel and Iran earlier this year.
His efforts to combat corruption in government were also well received by the public, despite limited gains. A recent oil deal with the Kurdistan Regional Government ended a two-year impasse, restoring access to a pipeline into Turkey.
Addressing a London audience on Wednesday, Mr Al Sudani said he was “optimistic” his alliance of parties, the Reconstruction and Development Coalition formed in May, would win the next elections.
He said the coalition includes “all spectrums and components of the people. It has a clear vision, a project, and a record of achievement”.
“I make no secret that I plan to form the next government, so that I can continue the project we put in place,” he said.
The elections – the seventh since the American invasion in 2003 – were a sign of the “success of Iraq’s democratic path”. But they were also an “important step in promoting and consolidating the democratic system”.
Mr Al Sudani’s premiership sought to underpin the country's strategic autonomy during the Israel and Iran war earlier this year. The confrontation threatened to drag in Iraq through a combatant role for its Iran-backed militias.
“Our position has been clear. The Palestinian issue is important for the Iraqi people. We expressed a clear rejection of this genocide, of this crime,” he said.
Iraq is one of the few countries that has not been implicated in diplomatic efforts to drive a normalisation process with Israel and its surrounding region.
Yet Baghdad's position during the 12-day war established that the government would put “Iraq and Iraqis above all else”. This resulted in the Sudani government “not allowing Iraq to become a battleground for conflicts or a proxy war”.
But growing disillusionment in the political process could lead to a low voter turnout, from which Al Sudani would be the “biggest loser”.
“Right now the ratings of the Prime Minister are very good. He has the highest favourability among all Iraqi PMs since 2003, “said Munqith Dagher, founder of the Independent Institute of Administration and Civil Society Studies research group, which conducted a recent survey. “How do you turn this credibility into credit?”
Mr Al Sudani is particularly popular among women, who credit him with achieving better security, but that group is also expected to have the lowest turnout at the election. People aged 35 to 45 years old were most likely to boycott the election, Mr Dagher said.
While he expects Mr Al Sudani to win, he could lose up to 4 per cent of his share, giving ground to “ideological parties” such as those led by former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki, and militant leader Qais Al Khazali.
Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman, who advises the Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, said Iraq’s electoral laws based on sectarian quota had become a barrier to engagement with voters.
“Electoral law …. gives a ceiling to the number of seats the Kurds will get. This disincentivises the voter from going out and voting,” she said.
Though the Kurdistan Democratic Party has stated it would participate in the elections, there was a debate among the party about boycotting them, she said.
